L’École des cotes

Cruzeiro v Boca Juniors

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-29 00:30 UTC

Score final : Cruzeiro 1–0 Boca Juniors

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

45 opérateurs (12 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Cruzeiro (Local)

Prévision 37.82%2.64cote équitable
EV -2.43%
Avantage -0.942%
Kelly -1.54%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.58

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
36.40%37.82%37.82%39.56%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.202.432.402.5845.45%41.20%41.67%38.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Boca Juniors (Visiteur)

Prévision 29.95%3.34cote équitable
EV +1.82%
Avantage +0.537%
Kelly +0.760%
Croissance +0.014%

avec la cote maximale 3.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.53%29.98%29.93%31.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.753.083.103.4036.36%32.46%32.26%29.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 32.23%3.10cote équitable
EV -0.074%
Avantage -0.024%
Kelly -0.035%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.67%32.21%32.24%34.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.702.892.883.1037.04%34.65%34.72%32.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (45 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel2.48I 40.32%NM 39.33%EV -6.21%E -2.51%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.69%EV +1.82%E +0.537%K +0.760%G +0.014%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.98%EV -1.69%E -0.553%K -0.822%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-21 12:55
ATG (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.33%EV -6.21%E -2.51%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.69%EV +1.82%E +0.537%K +0.760%G +0.014%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.98%EV -1.69%E -0.553%K -0.822%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-21 12:54
BetRivers2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -1.17%E -0.355%K -0.509%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 12:55
Unibet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.56%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -1.17%E -0.355%K -0.509%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 12:54
Unibet (NL)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.56%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -1.17%E -0.355%K -0.509%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 12:54
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.56%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -1.17%E -0.355%K -0.509%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 12:55
Casumo2.38I 42.02%NM 39.56%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -1.17%E -0.355%K -0.509%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 12:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -2.67%E -0.821%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 12:54
1xBet2.58I 38.76%NM 37.20%EV -2.43%E -0.942%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.71%EV -3.27%E -1.01%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.09%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-23 16:14
Pinnacle2.56I 39.06%NM 37.05%EV -3.19%E -1.25%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.55%EV -3.87%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.40%EV -8.46%E -2.98%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 19:50
LowVig.ag2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -4.16%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.48%EV -9.10%E -3.23%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 18:45
BetOnline.ag2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -4.16%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.48%EV -9.10%E -3.23%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 18:44
NordicBet2.52I 39.68%NM 37.12%EV -4.70%E -1.87%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -4.16%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.65%EV -10.39%E -3.74%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 01:10
Betsson2.52I 39.68%NM 37.12%EV -4.70%E -1.87%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -4.16%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.65%EV -10.39%E -3.74%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 01:09
Bovada2.55I 39.22%NM 37.60%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.44%EV -5.66%E -1.80%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.96%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 16:22
BetUS2.55I 39.22%NM 37.60%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.44%EV -5.66%E -1.80%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.96%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 18:49
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 36.77%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -5.66%E -1.80%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.05%EV -12.97%E -4.80%K -7.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 01:10
PMU (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -5.66%E -1.80%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-21 12:55
Virgin Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -5.66%E -1.80%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-22 08:39
LiveScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -5.66%E -1.80%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-22 08:40
Marathon Bet2.51I 39.84%NM 37.18%EV -5.08%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.72%EV -5.96%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.10%EV -9.10%E -3.23%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 16:15
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.86%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.86%EV -0.074%E -0.024%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-23 16:44
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 18:00
theScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 03:40
Suprabets2.48I 40.32%NM 37.01%EV -6.21%E -2.51%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 12:52
GTbets2.52I 39.68%NM 37.42%EV -4.70%E -1.87%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.82%EV -8.36%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.75%EV -4.26%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 00:15
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.17%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -8.66%E -2.84%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 16:44
Unibet (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.45%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -8.66%E -2.84%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-24 00:34
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -10.15%E -3.38%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-24 00:49
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.15%E -3.38%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-22 01:19
betfred_uk2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.15%E -3.38%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 10:34
Betclic (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.25%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.52%EV -10.75%E -3.61%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 32.23%EV -12.00%E -4.40%K -6.94%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-23 03:38
888sport2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -13.15%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 15:34
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -13.15%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 15:34
888sport (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -13.15%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 15:35
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -13.15%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 15:34
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.15%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-24 00:34
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.15%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-23 03:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -13.75%E -4.77%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -9.74%E -3.48%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-21 10:25
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -13.75%E -4.77%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -9.74%E -3.48%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-21 10:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.13%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.05%EV -14.05%E -4.89%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -9.74%E -3.48%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-21 10:25
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 37.13%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.05%EV -14.05%E -4.89%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -9.74%E -3.48%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-21 10:24
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 38.88%EV -16.80%E -7.64%K -14.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.01%EV -14.65%E -5.14%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.11%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-23 03:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 36.40%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.51%EV -17.64%E -6.42%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.09%EV -12.97%E -4.80%K -7.63%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-22 01:54
Winamax (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 38.46%EV -16.80%E -7.64%K -14.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.77%EV -17.64%E -6.42%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.77%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%18.2%2026-04-23 03:39
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (1)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.26%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.33%13.2%2026-04-23 03:39