La escuela de los momios

Cruzeiro v Boca Juniors

Inicio: 2026-04-29 00:30 UTC

Final: Cruzeiro 1–0 Boca Juniors

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Cruzeiro (Local)

Predicción 37.82%2.64momio equitativo
EV -2.43%
Ventaja -0.942%
Kelly -1.54%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.40%37.82%37.82%39.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.432.402.5845.45%41.20%41.67%38.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Boca Juniors (Visitante)

Predicción 29.95%3.34momio equitativo
EV +1.82%
Ventaja +0.537%
Kelly +0.760%
Crecimiento +0.014%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.53%29.98%29.93%31.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.083.103.4036.36%32.46%32.26%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 32.23%3.10momio equitativo
EV -0.074%
Ventaja -0.024%
Kelly -0.035%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.67%32.21%32.24%34.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.702.892.883.1037.04%34.65%34.72%32.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel2.48I 40.32%NM 39.33%EV -6.21%E -2.51%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.69%EV +1.82%E +0.537%K +0.760%G +0.014%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.98%EV -1.69%E -0.553%K -0.822%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-21 12:55
ATG (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.33%EV -6.21%E -2.51%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.69%EV +1.82%E +0.537%K +0.760%G +0.014%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.98%EV -1.69%E -0.553%K -0.822%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-21 12:54
BetRivers2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -1.17%E -0.355%K -0.509%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 12:55
Unibet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.56%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -1.17%E -0.355%K -0.509%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 12:54
Unibet (NL)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.56%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -1.17%E -0.355%K -0.509%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 12:54
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.56%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -1.17%E -0.355%K -0.509%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 12:55
Casumo2.38I 42.02%NM 39.56%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -1.17%E -0.355%K -0.509%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 12:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -2.67%E -0.821%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 12:54
1xBet2.58I 38.76%NM 37.20%EV -2.43%E -0.942%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.71%EV -3.27%E -1.01%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.09%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-23 16:14
Pinnacle2.56I 39.06%NM 37.05%EV -3.19%E -1.25%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.55%EV -3.87%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.40%EV -8.46%E -2.98%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 19:50
LowVig.ag2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -4.16%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.48%EV -9.10%E -3.23%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 18:45
BetOnline.ag2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -4.16%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.48%EV -9.10%E -3.23%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 18:44
NordicBet2.52I 39.68%NM 37.12%EV -4.70%E -1.87%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -4.16%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.65%EV -10.39%E -3.74%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 01:10
Betsson2.52I 39.68%NM 37.12%EV -4.70%E -1.87%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -4.16%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.65%EV -10.39%E -3.74%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 01:09
Bovada2.55I 39.22%NM 37.60%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.44%EV -5.66%E -1.80%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.96%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 16:22
BetUS2.55I 39.22%NM 37.60%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.44%EV -5.66%E -1.80%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.96%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 18:49
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 36.77%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -5.66%E -1.80%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.05%EV -12.97%E -4.80%K -7.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 01:10
PMU (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -5.66%E -1.80%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-21 12:55
Virgin Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -5.66%E -1.80%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-22 08:39
LiveScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -5.66%E -1.80%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-22 08:40
Marathon Bet2.51I 39.84%NM 37.18%EV -5.08%E -2.02%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.72%EV -5.96%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.10%EV -9.10%E -3.23%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 16:15
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.86%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.86%EV -0.074%E -0.024%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-23 16:44
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 18:00
theScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 03:40
Suprabets2.48I 40.32%NM 37.01%EV -6.21%E -2.51%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.16%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 12:52
GTbets2.52I 39.68%NM 37.42%EV -4.70%E -1.87%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.82%EV -8.36%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.75%EV -4.26%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 00:15
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.17%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -8.66%E -2.84%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 16:44
Unibet (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.45%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -8.66%E -2.84%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-24 00:34
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -10.15%E -3.38%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-24 00:49
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.15%E -3.38%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-22 01:19
betfred_uk2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.15%E -3.38%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 10:34
Betclic (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.25%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.52%EV -10.75%E -3.61%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 32.23%EV -12.00%E -4.40%K -6.94%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-23 03:38
888sport2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -13.15%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 15:34
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -13.15%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 15:34
888sport (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -13.15%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 15:35
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -13.15%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 15:34
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -13.15%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-24 00:34
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -13.02%E -5.66%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.15%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-23 03:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -13.75%E -4.77%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -9.74%E -3.48%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-21 10:25
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -13.75%E -4.77%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -9.74%E -3.48%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-21 10:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.13%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.05%EV -14.05%E -4.89%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -9.74%E -3.48%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-21 10:25
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 37.13%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.05%EV -14.05%E -4.89%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -9.74%E -3.48%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-21 10:24
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 38.88%EV -16.80%E -7.64%K -14.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.01%EV -14.65%E -5.14%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.11%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-23 03:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 36.40%EV -9.99%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.51%EV -17.64%E -6.42%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.09%EV -12.97%E -4.80%K -7.63%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-22 01:54
Winamax (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 38.46%EV -16.80%E -7.64%K -14.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.77%EV -17.64%E -6.42%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.77%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%18.2%2026-04-23 03:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (1)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.26%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.33%13.2%2026-04-23 03:39