Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toluca v Los Angeles FC

2026-08-09 03:10 UTC — Leagues Cup

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toluca (Local)

Prediction 37.30%2.68fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -3.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.19%37.18%37.30%37.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.452.5542.55%40.61%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Los Angeles FC (Visit)

Prediction 37.58%2.66fair odd
EV -6.06%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -4.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.94%37.53%37.56%38.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.432.452.5042.55%41.14%40.82%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.13%3.98fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -0.846%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.38%25.28%25.13%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.583.653.8530.30%27.96%27.40%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Toluca (Local): 37.30%; Los Angeles FC (Visit): 37.58%; Draw: 25.13%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.85, with an expected value of -3.26%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.28%EV -4.90%E -1.92%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.03%EV -6.06%E -2.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -3.26%E -0.846%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 11:30
1xBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -4.90%E -1.92%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.06%E -2.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -7.03%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-06 11:29
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.95%EV -6.02%E -2.39%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.54%EV -6.81%E -2.75%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.28%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-06 11:25
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.95%EV -6.02%E -2.39%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.54%EV -6.81%E -2.75%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.28%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-06 11:25
Dabble (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.76%E -2.70%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -7.94%E -3.24%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -9.54%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-06 11:40
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -8.63%E -3.52%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -7.94%E -3.24%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -4.51%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-06 11:40
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.56%EV -8.63%E -3.52%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.56%EV -7.94%E -3.24%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.03%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-06 11:24
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.63%E -3.52%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.94%E -3.24%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -9.54%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-06 11:54
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -8.63%E -3.52%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -9.82%E -4.09%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -17.08%E -5.18%K -7.43%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-06 12:05
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -8.63%E -3.52%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -9.82%E -4.09%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -17.08%E -5.18%K -7.43%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-06 12:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -8.63%E -3.52%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -9.82%E -4.09%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -17.08%E -5.18%K -7.43%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-06 12:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -8.63%E -3.52%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -9.82%E -4.09%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -17.08%E -5.18%K -7.43%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-06 12:05
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.76%EV -10.49%E -4.37%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.76%EV -9.82%E -4.09%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -7.03%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-06 11:38
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.33%EV -10.49%E -4.37%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.12%EV -11.69%E -4.98%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.55%EV -8.28%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-06 11:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.57%EV -12.36%E -5.26%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.57%EV -11.69%E -4.98%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.87%EV -10.80%E -3.04%K -4.23%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-06 11:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-08-06 11:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-08-06 11:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-08-06 11:40