The School of Odds
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Portland Timbers v Puebla

2026-08-07 02:30 UTC — Leagues Cup

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Portland Timbers (Local)

Prediction 50.29%1.99fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.16%50.12%49.95%51.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.841.831.9255.87%54.23%54.64%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Puebla (Visit)

Prediction 25.70%3.89fair odd
EV +0.241%
Edge +0.062%
Kelly +0.083%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.35%25.57%26.07%26.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.583.603.9029.41%27.93%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.01%4.17fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -0.993%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.74%24.31%23.98%25.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.703.804.0029.41%27.00%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Portland Timbers (Local): 50.29%; Puebla (Visit): 25.70%; Draw: 24.01%. For Puebla (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.90, producing a positive expected value of +0.241%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.90%EV -7.97%E -4.35%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV +0.241%E +0.062%K +0.083%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -3.97%E -0.993%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 16:34
NordicBet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.24%EV -8.47%E -4.65%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -2.33%E -0.613%K -0.832%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -7.57%E -1.97%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 16:34
Betsson1.82I 54.95%NM 51.24%EV -8.47%E -4.65%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -2.33%E -0.613%K -0.832%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -7.57%E -1.97%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 16:34
1xBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -6.96%E -3.76%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -6.19%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -7.57%E -1.97%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-02 19:10
ReBet1.79I 55.87%NM 50.65%EV -9.98%E -5.58%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -6.19%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -11.18%E -3.02%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-02 16:35
Coolbet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.67%EV -3.44%E -1.79%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -7.47%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.97%E -0.993%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 16:35
Dabble (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -5.45%E -2.90%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -7.47%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -13.58%E -3.77%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 16:35
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -5.96%E -3.19%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -6.37%E -1.63%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 16:34
SportsBet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -5.96%E -3.19%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -11.33%E -3.28%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -8.78%E -2.31%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 16:35
888sport (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -7.97%E -4.35%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -18.38%E -5.41%K -7.66%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-02 16:34
Mr Green (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -7.97%E -4.35%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -18.38%E -5.41%K -7.66%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-02 17:29
William Hill1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -7.97%E -4.35%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -18.38%E -5.41%K -7.66%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-02 17:35
888sport1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -7.97%E -4.35%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -18.38%E -5.41%K -7.66%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-02 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.75I 57.14%NM 50.53%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.91%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%13.1%2026-08-02 16:35