Language:English
Philadelphia Union v Necaxa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Philadelphia Union (Local)
Prediction 59.80%1.67fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.805%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.26%59.65%59.84%61.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.561.6566.67%64.37%64.10%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Necaxa (Visit)
Prediction 18.48%5.41fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.248%
Kelly -0.305%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.66%18.72%18.39%21.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.965.105.3422.73%20.14%19.61%18.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.72%4.60fair odd
EV -0.089%
Edge -0.019%
Kelly -0.025%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.35%21.63%21.77%23.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.274.254.6025.00%23.42%23.53%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Union (Local): 59.80%; Necaxa (Visit): 18.48%; Draw: 21.72%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.604. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.600, with an expected value of -0.089%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.26%EV -1.33%E -0.805%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -18.69%E -4.25%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -10.95%E -2.67%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-09 19:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.91%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.34I 18.73%NM 17.95%EV -1.32%E -0.248%K -0.305%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.14%EV -5.95%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.33%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -11.30%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.78%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-09 23:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.38%EV -4.92%E -3.09%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.29%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.26%E -0.502%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.60%EV -4.92%E -3.09%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 4.82I 20.75%NM 19.66%EV -10.93%E -2.27%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 20.74%EV -0.741%E -0.162%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.47%EV -4.92%E -3.09%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.78%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 23:16 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.24%EV -5.51%E -3.49%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -4.43%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 23:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -5.51%E -3.49%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -13.12%E -3.28%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.61%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.48%EV -4.83%E -0.939%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%EV -1.18%E -0.258%K -0.331%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.61%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.48%EV -4.83%E -0.939%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%EV -1.18%E -0.258%K -0.331%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.62%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.62%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -6.61%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 23:18 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.40%EV -6.11%E -3.89%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 22:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 23:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -7.31%E -4.71%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.76%EV -8.53%E -1.72%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -5.52%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -7.31%E -4.71%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.76%EV -8.53%E -1.72%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -5.52%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.48%EV -7.31%E -4.71%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.25%EV -18.69%E -4.25%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -13.12%E -3.28%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.50%E -5.56%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -8.78%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-09 23:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.55%EV -8.50%E -5.56%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -10.95%E -2.67%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-09 23:18 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.99%EV -8.50%E -5.56%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.00%EV -12.23%E -2.57%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.01%EV -10.95%E -2.67%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.80%EV -8.50%E -5.56%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.10%EV -18.69%E -4.25%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -13.12%E -3.28%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.80%EV -8.50%E -5.56%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.10%EV -18.69%E -4.25%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -13.12%E -3.28%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.80%EV -8.50%E -5.56%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.10%EV -18.69%E -4.25%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -13.12%E -3.28%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.92%EV -9.10%E -5.99%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -13.15%E -2.80%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -4.43%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.99%EV -9.70%E -6.42%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.66%EV -2.06%E -0.389%K -0.480%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -0.089%E -0.019%K -0.025%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 23:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.23%EV -9.70%E -6.42%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.37%EV -8.53%E -1.72%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.40%EV -7.69%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.45%EV -10.30%E -6.87%K -20.60%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -2.26%E -0.502%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-09 23:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -10.30%E -6.87%K -20.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -2.26%E -0.502%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-09 23:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.16%EV -10.30%E -6.87%K -20.60%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.00%EV -12.23%E -2.57%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.84%EV -5.95%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.16%EV -10.30%E -6.87%K -20.60%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.00%EV -12.23%E -2.57%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.84%EV -5.95%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.15%EV -10.30%E -6.87%K -20.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -16.85%E -3.74%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -8.78%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-09 21:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 59.92% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.86% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 21.22% | -1.8% | 2026-08-09 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.22% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.25% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.5% | 2026-08-09 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.22% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.25% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.5% | 2026-08-09 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.22% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.25% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.5% | 2026-08-09 23:15 |