Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Union v Necaxa

2026-08-09 23:30 UTC — Leagues Cup

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Union (Local)

Prediction 54.19%1.85fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -5.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.40%54.02%54.25%55.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.701.691.7760.98%58.90%59.00%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Necaxa (Visit)

Prediction 22.34%4.48fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.383%
Kelly -0.495%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.34%22.36%22.39%23.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.084.074.4025.97%24.53%24.57%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.47%4.26fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -0.982%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.55%23.62%23.36%24.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.873.904.0927.78%25.83%25.64%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Philadelphia Union (Local): 54.19%; Necaxa (Visit): 22.34%; Draw: 23.47%. For Necaxa (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.48. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.40, with an expected value of -1.68%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.40%EV -4.09%E -2.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -10.62%E -2.66%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 11:45
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.22%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.06%EV -3.92%E -0.911%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 11:49
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.96%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -1.68%E -0.383%K -0.495%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 11:36
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.62%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -8.39%E -2.05%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 12:04
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.54%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.06%EV -9.73%E -2.41%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.41%EV -6.60%E -1.66%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 12:00
Pinnacle🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.41%EV -5.93%E -1.41%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.06%EV -4.02%E -0.982%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 12:45
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.66%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.39%EV -7.27%E -1.75%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.94%EV -4.96%E -1.22%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 11:50
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.66%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.39%EV -7.27%E -1.75%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.94%EV -4.96%E -1.22%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 11:49
Dabble (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -5.03%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -9.65%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 11:44
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -10.62%E -2.66%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 12:39
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -8.39%E -2.05%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 11:49
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -10.62%E -2.66%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 11:50
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.08%EV -8.42%E -4.98%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -3.92%E -0.911%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 11:49
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.80%EV -8.42%E -4.98%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -6.15%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 11:49
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.88%EV -8.42%E -4.98%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -10.62%E -2.66%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.35%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 12:39
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 52.55%EV -8.42%E -4.98%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.77%EV -12.86%E -3.30%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -15.52%E -4.31%K -5.97%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 11:45
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.77%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -6.15%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 12:43
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.77%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -6.15%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 12:43
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.85%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.63%EV -12.86%E -3.30%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -15.52%E -4.31%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-08 11:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.85%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.63%EV -12.86%E -3.30%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -15.52%E -4.31%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-08 11:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.85%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.63%EV -12.86%E -3.30%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -15.52%E -4.31%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-08 11:50
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.85%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.63%EV -12.86%E -3.30%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -15.52%E -4.31%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-08 11:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.33%EV -10.05%E -6.05%K -15.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -12.86%E -3.30%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-08 11:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.31%EV -11.13%E -6.79%K -17.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.14%EV -13.97%E -3.63%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.55%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 11:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.67%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%9.0%2026-08-08 13:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.67%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%9.0%2026-08-08 13:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.67%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%9.0%2026-08-08 13:10
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 52.91%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.77%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%11.2%2026-08-08 13:19