The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Monterrey v Chicago Fire

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 00:40 UTC

Final: Monterrey 2–1 Chicago Fire

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Monterrey (Local)

Prediction 35.04%2.85fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.82%35.07%35.04%36.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.632.652.7540.82%37.97%37.74%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Fire (Visit)

Prediction 39.02%2.56fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.984%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.65%39.03%38.90%40.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.372.402.5045.45%42.24%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.94%3.85fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.581%
Kelly -0.791%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.06%25.90%26.06%26.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.553.553.7730.30%28.17%28.17%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Monterrey (Local): 35.04%; Chicago Fire (Visit): 39.02%; Draw: 25.94%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.77, with an expected value of -2.19%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -3.64%E -1.32%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -8.31%E -3.54%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -4.01%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-26 00:29
1xBet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.80%EV -4.34%E -1.59%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.19%E -2.14%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.10%EV -5.56%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-26 00:29
Pinnacle🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.63%EV -5.04%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.94%EV -5.97%E -2.48%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-26 00:39
ReBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -5.39%E -2.00%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -4.41%E -1.80%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-26 00:39
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -5.39%E -2.00%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -4.01%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-26 00:32
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -5.39%E -2.00%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -4.41%E -1.80%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-26 00:34
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -5.39%E -2.00%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-26 00:05
Dabble (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -5.39%E -2.00%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -8.31%E -3.54%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-26 00:29
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -5.39%E -2.00%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -8.31%E -3.54%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-26 00:27
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.91%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.84%EV -4.41%E -1.80%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.24%EV -2.19%E -0.581%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 00:09
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.91%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.84%EV -4.41%E -1.80%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.24%EV -2.19%E -0.581%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 00:05
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-26 00:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-26 00:34
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.36%E -2.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.90%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 00:34
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -8.31%E -3.54%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-26 00:04
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -8.31%E -3.54%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-26 00:05
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.53%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.94%EV -8.31%E -3.54%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -10.49%E -3.04%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-26 00:35
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.82%EV -7.14%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -12.21%E -5.43%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-25 22:33
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.28%EV -7.85%E -2.98%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.20%EV -10.26%E -4.46%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-26 00:34
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.09%EV -8.20%E -3.13%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.14%E -3.00%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-26 00:39
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -8.20%E -3.13%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -10.26%E -4.46%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-26 00:34
Caesars🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -8.90%E -3.42%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -2.46%E -0.984%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-26 00:17
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -8.90%E -3.42%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -8.31%E -3.54%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-26 00:39
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -10.65%E -4.18%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.54%EV -7.14%E -3.00%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-26 00:33
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -10.65%E -4.18%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.54%EV -7.14%E -3.00%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-26 00:33
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -10.65%E -4.18%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -10.26%E -4.46%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-26 00:35
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -12.40%E -4.96%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -12.21%E -5.43%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-26 00:34
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.08%EV -12.40%E -4.96%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -14.16%E -6.44%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-25 22:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.08%EV -12.40%E -4.96%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -14.16%E -6.44%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-25 22:33
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.08%EV -12.40%E -4.96%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -14.16%E -6.44%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-25 22:33
Fliff🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.01%EV -14.15%E -5.78%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.99%EV -14.16%E -6.44%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.99%EV -14.38%E -4.36%K -6.25%G +0.000%16.6%2026-08-26 00:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.61%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.16%1.9%2026-08-26 00:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.22%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.74%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.04%2.4%2026-08-26 00:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.10%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.95%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%2.8%2026-08-26 00:39
Smarkets◎2.78I 35.97%NM 34.14%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.56%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.31%5.4%2026-08-26 00:39