Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yunnan Yukun v Shenzhen Peng City FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 11:00 UTC

Final: Yunnan Yukun 4–3 Shenzhen Peng City FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yunnan Yukun (Local)

Prediction 56.58%1.77fair odd
EV +0.145%
Edge +0.082%
Kelly +0.189%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.36%56.27%56.61%58.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.641.651.7763.69%60.88%60.61%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shenzhen Peng City FC (Visit)

Prediction 21.64%4.62fair odd
EV +1.49%
Edge +0.318%
Kelly +0.405%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.42%21.87%21.62%24.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.194.204.6928.57%23.84%23.81%21.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.78%4.59fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -0.692%
Kelly -0.892%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.73%21.86%21.76%23.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.194.204.4525.97%23.88%23.81%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yunnan Yukun (Local): 56.58%; Shenzhen Peng City FC (Visit): 21.64%; Draw: 21.78%. For Shenzhen Peng City FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.69, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.05%EV -6.64%E -4.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.42%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.405%G +0.006%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.52%EV -3.08%E -0.692%K -0.892%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-26 10:55
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%EV -8.34%E -5.15%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 20.73%EV -2.40%E -0.533%K -0.684%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.55%EV -5.47%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 10:50
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.02%EV -8.91%E -5.53%K -14.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -2.62%E -0.582%K -0.748%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -4.17%E -0.947%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 10:54
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%EV -4.17%E -0.947%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.56%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -6.34%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 10:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.56%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -6.34%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 10:50
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.16%EV -7.78%E -4.77%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -6.34%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 10:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.61%EV -9.47%E -5.92%K -15.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.44%EV -6.34%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 10:45
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -8.34%E -5.15%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.76%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -12.88%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-26 10:55
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -8.91%E -5.53%K -14.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.88%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 10:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -8.91%E -5.53%K -14.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.88%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 10:56
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -8.91%E -5.53%K -14.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.88%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 10:56
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.28%EV -6.64%E -4.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.35%EV -5.86%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.38%EV -9.61%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-26 10:50
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.28%EV -6.64%E -4.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.35%EV -5.86%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.38%EV -9.61%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-26 10:50
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.75%EV -6.64%E -4.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -6.30%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -5.69%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 10:40
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.50%EV -9.47%E -5.92%K -15.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -6.30%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -5.69%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 10:53
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.50%EV -9.47%E -5.92%K -15.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -6.30%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -5.69%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 10:55
Everygame🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.83%EV -9.47%E -5.92%K -15.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -6.30%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -10.70%E -2.61%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-26 10:50
GTbets🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.64%EV -3.25%E -1.90%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.08%EV -6.73%E -1.56%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.28%EV -7.00%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 09:40
Coolbet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.56%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -6.95%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -4.17%E -0.947%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 10:45
Bovada🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -6.08%E -3.66%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -6.95%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -6.34%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 10:53
BetUS🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -6.08%E -3.66%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -6.95%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -6.34%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 10:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -6.64%E -4.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -8.03%E -1.89%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -7.43%E -1.75%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-26 10:45
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.34%E -5.15%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -9.11%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.52%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 10:50
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.34%E -5.15%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -9.11%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.52%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 10:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.00%EV -7.78%E -4.77%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -9.11%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -10.70%E -2.61%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-26 10:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.31%EV -8.91%E -5.53%K -14.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -9.11%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -10.70%E -2.61%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 10:50
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.22%EV -11.17%E -7.11%K -19.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -9.11%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -8.52%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-26 10:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.22%EV -11.17%E -7.11%K -19.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -9.11%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -8.52%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-26 10:55
Bet Right🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.99%EV -7.21%E -4.40%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -7.43%E -1.75%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 10:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -8.34%E -5.15%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -8.52%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 10:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.95%EV -4.95%E -2.94%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.44%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.52%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 08:10
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.95%EV -4.95%E -2.94%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.44%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.52%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 08:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.95%EV -4.95%E -2.94%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.44%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.52%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 08:10
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.95%EV -4.95%E -2.94%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.44%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.52%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 08:10
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.95%EV -4.95%E -2.94%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.44%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.52%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 08:09
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.95%EV -4.95%E -2.94%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.44%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.52%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 08:10
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.95%EV -4.95%E -2.94%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.44%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.52%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 08:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.95%EV -6.08%E -3.66%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -13.44%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -10.70%E -2.61%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 08:10
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -6.64%E -4.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -13.44%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -12.88%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-26 10:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -6.64%E -4.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -13.44%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -12.88%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-26 10:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.93%EV -7.21%E -4.40%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -15.60%E -4.00%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -10.70%E -2.61%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-26 08:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.93%EV -7.21%E -4.40%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -15.60%E -4.00%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -10.70%E -2.61%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-26 08:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.55%EV -10.60%E -6.71%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.51%EV -15.60%E -4.00%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -12.88%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-26 10:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.36%EV +0.145%E +0.082%K +0.189%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.88%EV -16.04%E -4.13%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -15.06%E -3.86%K -5.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-21 18:55
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -3.82%E -2.24%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -16.68%E -4.33%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -16.15%E -4.19%K -5.67%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 10:10
BoyleSports🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.40%EV -9.47%E -5.92%K -15.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.87%EV -24.26%E -6.93%K -9.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.73%EV -8.52%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-26 10:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.28%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.64%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-07-26 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.28%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.64%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-07-26 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.28%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.64%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-07-26 10:55
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 58.28%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.64%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-07-26 10:55
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 57.92%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.56%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.51%2.2%2026-07-26 10:40