La escuela de los momios

Yunnan Yukun v Shanghai Shenhua FC

Inicio: 2026-05-16 12:00 UTC

Final: Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Shanghai Shenhua FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Yunnan Yukun (Local)

Predicción 49.30%2.03momio equitativo
EV -4.84%
Ventaja -2.51%
Kelly -5.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.93

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.62%49.31%49.33%51.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.751.871.881.9357.14%53.42%53.19%51.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Shanghai Shenhua FC (Visitante)

Predicción 27.23%3.67momio equitativo
EV -1.41%
Ventaja -0.390%
Kelly -0.539%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.71%27.21%27.23%28.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.363.353.6232.26%29.74%29.85%27.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.46%4.26momio equitativo
EV -2.86%
Ventaja -0.692%
Kelly -0.912%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.14

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.74%23.48%23.44%25.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.863.854.1430.30%25.88%25.97%24.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
GTbets1.93I 51.81%NM 49.26%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.86%EV -3.59%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.89%EV -6.62%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 11:05
Unibet (NL)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.14%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 11:35
TABtouch1.93I 51.81%NM 48.14%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 11:35
Unibet1.93I 51.81%NM 48.14%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 11:35
Unibet (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.14%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 11:35
Grosvenor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.14%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 11:35
betPARX1.93I 51.81%NM 48.14%EV -4.84%E -2.51%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 11:35
Pinnacle1.91I 52.36%NM 50.28%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.53%EV -1.41%E -0.390%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.20%EV -2.86%E -0.692%K -0.912%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-16 11:50
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 11:35
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 11:40
Marathon Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -7.40%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.25%EV -10.37%E -2.72%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 11:50
BetRivers1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -5.83%E -3.05%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 11:35
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -6.32%E -3.33%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 11:55
LowVig.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -6.32%E -3.33%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -6.04%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 11:55
BetOnline.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -6.32%E -3.33%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -6.04%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 11:55
Unibet (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -6.32%E -3.33%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -6.04%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 11:35
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -6.32%E -3.33%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -12.01%E -3.20%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 11:50
LeoVegas1.89I 52.91%NM 48.31%EV -6.82%E -3.61%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 11:35
Bovada1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -7.31%E -3.89%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 11:52
Betway1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -7.31%E -3.89%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.40%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 11:35
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -7.31%E -3.89%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -7.40%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -7.32%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 11:35
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -7.31%E -3.89%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -7.40%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -7.32%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 11:35
Bet Right1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -7.31%E -3.89%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -8.50%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 11:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.44%EV -7.31%E -3.89%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 11:35
Codere (IT)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.08%EV -7.80%E -4.17%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.39%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.50%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 11:40
Virgin Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 48.35%EV -8.30%E -4.46%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.67%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -12.01%E -3.20%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 11:35
LiveScore Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 48.35%EV -8.30%E -4.46%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.67%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -12.01%E -3.20%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 11:35
1xBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -8.79%E -4.75%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -1.96%E -0.544%K -0.753%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 11:55
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -8.79%E -4.75%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -7.40%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.50%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 11:55
PlayUp1.85I 54.05%NM 48.99%EV -8.79%E -4.75%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-16 11:55
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -8.79%E -4.75%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 11:39
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -8.79%E -4.75%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 11:50
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -8.79%E -4.75%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 11:50
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -8.79%E -4.75%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 11:50
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -8.79%E -4.75%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 11:50
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -8.79%E -4.75%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -15.53%E -4.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-16 11:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -8.79%E -4.75%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -15.53%E -4.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-16 11:45
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 49.56%EV -9.28%E -5.04%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 11:35
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -9.77%E -5.34%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 11:55
Tipico (DE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -9.77%E -5.34%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -8.50%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 11:45
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -9.77%E -5.34%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -7.40%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -12.01%E -3.20%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 11:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.62%EV -9.77%E -5.34%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.52%EV -15.58%E -5.02%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.85%EV -22.57%E -6.84%K -9.81%G +0.000%17.2%2026-05-16 11:38
BetUS1.81I 55.25%NM 51.14%EV -10.76%E -5.95%K -13.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -1.96%E -0.544%K -0.753%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-16 11:55
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.04%EV -11.25%E -6.25%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -14.21%E -4.51%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.93%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-16 11:35
Unibet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 49.59%EV -12.73%E -7.19%K -16.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.01%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.41%EV -12.01%E -3.20%K -4.37%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-16 11:35
BoyleSports1.75I 57.14%NM 49.38%EV -13.72%E -7.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.88%EV -15.58%E -5.02%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.74%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%15.7%2026-05-16 11:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.94%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57%0.7%2026-05-16 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-05-16 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-05-16 11:55
Matchbook1.95I 51.28%NM 50.76%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.49%1.0%2026-05-16 11:55
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 50.01%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%2.0%2026-05-16 11:55