Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC v Qingdao Hainiu FC

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 11:00 UTC

Final: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC 1–1 Qingdao Hainiu FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local)

Prediction 47.31%2.11fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -3.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.14%47.36%47.37%48.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.931.942.0354.35%51.77%51.41%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Qingdao Hainiu FC (Visit)

Prediction 25.70%3.89fair odd
EV -0.292%
Edge -0.075%
Kelly -0.101%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.29%25.66%25.61%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.583.553.8830.30%27.91%28.17%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.00%3.70fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -0.781%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.45%26.99%27.02%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.423.403.6033.33%29.23%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local): 47.31%; Qingdao Hainiu FC (Visit): 25.70%; Draw: 27.00%. For Qingdao Hainiu FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.88, with an expected value of -0.292%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.87%EV -3.97%E -1.96%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.97%EV -2.09%E -0.549%K -0.744%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.15%EV -8.75%E -2.59%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 10:19
Pinnacle🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.83%EV -4.92%E -2.45%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.78%EV -0.292%E -0.075%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.39%EV -5.24%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-12 10:20
1xBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.49%EV -4.92%E -2.45%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.92%EV -1.58%E -0.412%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.59%EV -6.59%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-12 10:20
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.39%E -2.69%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.63%E -0.969%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -5.51%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 10:19
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.39%E -2.69%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.49%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.81%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 10:10
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -5.39%E -2.69%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.49%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.51%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 10:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.39%E -2.69%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -10.06%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.51%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 10:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.08%EV -6.34%E -3.20%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -7.49%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -6.86%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 10:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.34%EV -6.34%E -3.20%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -8.77%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 10:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.34%EV -6.34%E -3.20%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -8.77%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 10:05
BetUS🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -6.81%E -3.46%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -3.63%E -0.969%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 10:15
Bovada🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.99%EV -7.28%E -3.72%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.35%E -0.618%K -0.838%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.86%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 10:13
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.75%E -3.98%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.49%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.51%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 10:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.52%EV -7.75%E -3.98%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.91%EV -4.40%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.58%EV -9.29%E -2.77%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 10:15
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.75%E -3.98%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.49%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 10:15
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.75%E -3.98%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.49%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 10:14
Bet Right🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -7.75%E -3.98%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.06%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -6.86%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 10:09
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.75%E -3.98%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.06%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 10:00
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.75%E -3.98%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -7.49%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -12.26%E -3.77%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 10:05
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.75%E -3.98%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -7.49%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -12.26%E -3.77%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 10:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.75%E -3.98%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -7.49%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -12.26%E -3.77%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 10:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.75%E -3.98%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -7.49%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -12.26%E -3.77%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 10:05
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.75%E -3.98%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -10.06%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-12 10:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.41%EV -8.23%E -4.24%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.49%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 10:20
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.53%EV -8.70%E -4.51%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.49%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 10:20
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.57%EV -9.65%E -5.05%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -6.20%E -1.70%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 10:05
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -9.65%E -5.05%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -10.06%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-12 10:07
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -9.65%E -5.05%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -10.06%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-12 10:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -9.65%E -5.05%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -10.06%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-12 10:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.14%EV -9.65%E -5.05%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -15.20%E -4.61%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.74%EV -19.01%E -6.34%K -9.51%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-12 10:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -10.12%E -5.33%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -2.35%E -0.618%K -0.838%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 10:05
Unibet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -10.12%E -5.33%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -8.77%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -2.81%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 19:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.92%EV -10.12%E -5.33%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -7.49%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -8.21%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 10:10
TABtouch🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -10.59%E -5.60%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.77%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -2.81%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 19:45
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -10.59%E -5.60%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.77%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -2.81%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 19:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -10.59%E -5.60%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.77%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -2.81%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 19:45
Grosvenor🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -10.59%E -5.60%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.77%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -2.81%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 19:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -10.59%E -5.60%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.77%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -2.81%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 19:45
LeoVegas🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -10.59%E -5.60%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.77%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -2.81%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 19:45
betPARX🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -10.59%E -5.60%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.77%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -2.81%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 19:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -11.07%E -5.89%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -8.77%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -2.81%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-09 19:45
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.88%EV -11.54%E -6.17%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -15.20%E -4.61%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-12 10:03
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -12.49%E -6.75%K -14.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -11.34%E -3.29%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -5.51%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-09 19:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -12.49%E -6.75%K -14.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -11.34%E -3.29%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -5.51%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-09 19:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -12.49%E -6.75%K -14.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -10.06%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-12 10:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 47.83%EV -12.96%E -7.04%K -15.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -11.34%E -3.29%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -10.91%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-12 10:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29%1.8%2026-04-12 10:15
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 48.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.0%2026-04-12 10:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.46%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.57%2.2%2026-04-12 10:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.46%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.57%2.2%2026-04-12 10:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.46%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.57%2.2%2026-04-12 10:20