La escuela de los momios

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC v Shanghai SIPG FC

Inicio: 2026-04-17 11:35 UTC

Final: Shandong Luneng Taishan FC 1–1 Shanghai SIPG FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC (Local)

Predicción 60.03%1.67momio equitativo
EV +8.05%
Ventaja +4.47%
Kelly +10.06%
Crecimiento +0.810%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.00%59.55%60.07%61.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.441.601.551.8069.44%62.60%64.52%55.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Shanghai SIPG FC (Visitante)

Predicción 18.38%5.44momio equitativo
EV +2.95%
Ventaja +0.527%
Kelly +0.641%
Crecimiento +0.019%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.64%18.77%18.38%25.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.664.855.6027.78%21.48%20.62%17.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 21.59%4.63momio equitativo
EV -2.86%
Ventaja -0.635%
Kelly -0.816%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.62%21.68%21.55%23.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.134.204.5027.78%24.24%23.81%22.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Grosvenor1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV +8.05%E +4.47%K +10.06%G +0.810%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -32.90%E -9.01%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -16.89%E -4.39%K -5.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 08:00
Unibet (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV +8.05%E +4.47%K +10.06%G +0.810%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -32.90%E -9.01%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -16.89%E -4.39%K -5.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 08:00
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV +8.05%E +4.47%K +10.06%G +0.810%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -32.90%E -9.01%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -16.89%E -4.39%K -5.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 07:59
Unibet (NL)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV +8.05%E +4.47%K +10.06%G +0.810%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -32.90%E -9.01%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -16.89%E -4.39%K -5.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 08:00
TABtouch1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV +8.05%E +4.47%K +10.06%G +0.810%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -32.90%E -9.01%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -16.89%E -4.39%K -5.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 07:59
Unibet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV +8.05%E +4.47%K +10.06%G +0.810%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -32.90%E -9.01%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -16.89%E -4.39%K -5.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 07:59
BetRivers1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV +8.05%E +4.47%K +10.06%G +0.810%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -32.90%E -9.01%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -16.89%E -4.39%K -5.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 08:00
betPARX1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV +8.05%E +4.47%K +10.06%G +0.810%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -32.90%E -9.01%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -16.89%E -4.39%K -5.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 07:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 51.14%EV +7.45%E +4.16%K +9.43%G +0.703%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -32.90%E -9.01%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -16.89%E -4.39%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 08:00
Virgin Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 51.07%EV +5.65%E +3.21%K +7.44%G +0.420%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -33.82%E -9.39%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -19.05%E -5.08%K -6.93%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-17 08:00
LiveScore Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 51.07%EV +5.65%E +3.21%K +7.44%G +0.420%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -33.82%E -9.39%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -19.05%E -5.08%K -6.93%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-17 08:00
GTbets1.60I 62.50%NM 59.42%EV -3.95%E -2.47%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.32%EV -4.59%E -0.884%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.26%EV -7.82%E -1.83%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-17 11:10
Coolbet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.09%EV -3.95%E -2.47%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -12.68%E -2.67%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -2.86%E -0.635%K -0.816%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 11:09
1xBet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.59%EV -5.75%E -3.67%K -10.10%G +0.000%4.99I 20.04%NM 18.75%EV -8.26%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.66%EV -6.74%E -1.56%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 11:29
PointsBet (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -5.75%E -3.67%K -10.10%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -12.68%E -2.67%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -2.86%E -0.635%K -0.816%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-17 11:10
Bet Right1.57I 63.69%NM 58.46%EV -5.75%E -3.67%K -10.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -15.43%E -3.36%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -8.25%E -1.94%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-17 11:09
betfred_uk1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -5.75%E -3.67%K -10.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -15.43%E -3.36%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -9.33%E -2.22%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 11:07
Pinnacle1.56I 64.10%NM 61.37%EV -6.36%E -4.07%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.53I 18.08%NM 17.31%EV +1.66%E +0.301%K +0.367%G +0.006%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.32%EV -3.07%E -0.685%K -0.881%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-17 11:30
DraftKings1.56I 64.10%NM 60.54%EV -6.36%E -4.07%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -3.48%E -0.664%K -0.820%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -5.02%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-17 11:30
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -6.96%E -4.49%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.76%EV -9.00%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -6.10%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-17 11:20
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -6.96%E -4.49%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.76%EV -9.00%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -6.10%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-17 11:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -6.96%E -4.49%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -17.27%E -3.84%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -13.65%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-17 11:00
Neds1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -6.96%E -4.49%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -17.27%E -3.84%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -13.65%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-17 10:59
BetOnline.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 61.35%EV -7.56%E -4.91%K -13.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV +1.11%E +0.202%K +0.247%G +0.003%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -5.02%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 11:30
LowVig.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 61.35%EV -7.56%E -4.91%K -13.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV +1.11%E +0.202%K +0.247%G +0.003%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -5.02%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 11:29
Bovada1.54I 64.94%NM 61.16%EV -7.56%E -4.91%K -13.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -0.726%E -0.135%K -0.165%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -5.02%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 11:29
Codere (IT)1.54I 64.94%NM 59.79%EV -7.56%E -4.91%K -13.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.79%EV -9.92%E -2.02%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%EV -7.18%E -1.67%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 11:19
BetUS1.53I 65.36%NM 61.41%EV -8.16%E -5.33%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.24%EV +0.193%E +0.035%K +0.043%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -5.02%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 11:29
Marathon Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 60.55%EV -8.16%E -5.33%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -3.48%E -0.664%K -0.820%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.80%EV -8.25%E -1.94%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 11:18
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.16%E -5.33%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -8.08%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.33%E -2.22%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 11:29
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.16%E -5.33%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -8.08%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.33%E -2.22%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 11:28
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -8.16%E -5.33%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -8.08%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.65%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-17 11:10
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -8.16%E -5.33%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -8.08%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.65%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-17 11:29
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -8.16%E -5.33%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -8.08%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.65%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-17 11:10
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -8.16%E -5.33%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -8.08%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.65%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-17 11:09
Tipico (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.45%EV -8.76%E -5.76%K -16.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.67%EV -4.40%E -0.847%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -9.33%E -2.22%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-17 11:10
Winamax (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 59.92%EV -8.76%E -5.76%K -16.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -13.60%E -2.89%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -5.02%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-17 11:19
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 59.38%EV -8.76%E -5.76%K -16.84%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.61%EV -10.84%E -2.23%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.01%EV -11.49%E -2.80%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-17 11:20
FanDuel1.51I 66.23%NM 61.70%EV -9.36%E -6.20%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV +2.95%E +0.527%K +0.641%G +0.019%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -7.18%E -1.67%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-17 11:28
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -9.96%E -6.64%K -19.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV +1.11%E +0.202%K +0.247%G +0.003%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.33%E -2.22%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-17 11:29
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -9.96%E -6.64%K -19.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -8.08%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.65%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-17 11:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 57.14%EV -9.96%E -6.64%K -19.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.05%EV -17.27%E -3.84%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -22.29%E -6.19%K -8.57%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-17 11:00
Winamax (FR)1.49I 67.11%NM 59.05%EV -10.56%E -7.09%K -21.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.00%EV -19.11%E -4.34%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.95%EV -9.33%E -2.22%K -2.92%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-17 11:19
Unibet (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 59.71%EV -11.76%E -8.00%K -25.02%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.88%EV -14.51%E -3.12%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -11.49%E -2.80%K -3.71%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-17 11:19
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 60.14%EV -13.56%E -9.42%K -30.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.24%EV -17.27%E -3.84%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.62%EV -9.33%E -2.22%K -2.92%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-17 11:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.64I 60.98%NM 61.60%5.88I 17.01%NM 17.18%4.76I 21.01%NM 21.22%-1.0%2026-04-17 11:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 61.15%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.18%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.67%0.3%2026-04-17 11:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.11%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.37%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.52%1.0%2026-04-17 11:29
Matchbook1.62I 61.73%NM 61.11%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.37%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.52%1.0%2026-04-17 11:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.44%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.06%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%1.1%2026-04-17 11:19