Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC v Henan FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 11:35 UTC

Final: Shandong Luneng Taishan FC 1–2 Henan FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC (Local)

Prediction 42.51%2.35fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -3.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.35%42.63%42.54%45.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.142.152.2652.36%46.74%46.51%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Henan FC (Visit)

Prediction 33.40%2.99fair odd
EV +0.189%
Edge +0.063%
Kelly +0.095%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.54%33.29%33.36%35.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.792.783.0040.00%35.83%35.97%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.09%4.15fair odd
EV +0.711%
Edge +0.170%
Kelly +0.224%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.30%24.08%24.11%25.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.833.804.1827.78%26.10%26.32%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shandong Luneng Taishan FC (Local): 42.51%; Henan FC (Visit): 33.40%; Draw: 24.09%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.15. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.711%.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.88%EV -5.20%E -2.33%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.78%EV -12.84%E -4.92%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.34%EV +0.711%E +0.170%K +0.224%G +0.002%7.1%2026-07-26 11:30
GTbets🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.59%EV -6.05%E -2.74%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.11%EV -7.83%E -2.84%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.30%EV -2.66%E -0.659%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 11:30
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.40%EV -7.75%E -3.57%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -4.82%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -3.63%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 11:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.38%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.63%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 11:30
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -10.73%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -8.16%E -2.97%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -3.63%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-26 11:29
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.61%EV -18.81%E -9.85%K -20.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.08%EV -16.51%E -6.60%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.30%EV -3.63%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000%17.4%2026-07-26 11:25
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.50%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.82%EV -4.82%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -4.83%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 11:28
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.44%EV -11.50%E -4.34%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.11%EV -4.83%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 11:30
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.97%EV -4.78%E -2.13%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.41%EV -0.813%E -0.274%K -0.413%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.62%EV -5.79%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-26 11:25
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.82%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -6.04%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 11:30
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -7.33%E -3.36%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -6.04%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 11:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.30%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -8.16%E -2.97%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -6.04%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 11:30
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.51%EV -8.16%E -2.97%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -6.04%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 11:30
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.60%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.92%EV -9.83%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -6.04%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-26 11:30
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.60%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.92%EV -9.83%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -6.04%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-26 11:30
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.35%E -1.93%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 11:29
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.24%EV -7.33%E -3.36%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.85%EV -9.16%E -3.37%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 11:30
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.24%EV -7.33%E -3.36%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.85%EV -9.16%E -3.37%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 11:30
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.13%EV -7.33%E -3.36%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.02%EV -9.83%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 11:31
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.24%EV -7.75%E -3.57%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.83%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.81%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 11:30
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 11:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:31
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:28
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:31
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:30
TABtouch🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:30
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:30
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 11:31
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.35%EV -14.13%E -6.99%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-26 11:30
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -12.50%E -4.77%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 11:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -12.50%E -4.77%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 11:30
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -12.50%E -4.77%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 11:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -12.50%E -4.77%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 11:30
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -10.73%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -8.16%E -2.97%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 11:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -10.73%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -8.16%E -2.97%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 11:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.91%EV -10.73%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -9.83%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-26 11:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.29%EV -6.90%E -3.15%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.63%EV -9.41%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-26 11:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.98%EV -3.93%E -1.74%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.72%EV -3.15%E -1.09%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -9.65%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 11:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.98%EV -3.93%E -1.74%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.72%EV -3.15%E -1.09%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -9.65%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 11:30
BetUS🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.98%EV -3.93%E -1.74%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.72%EV -3.15%E -1.09%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -9.65%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 11:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.54%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.20%EV -14.84%E -5.82%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -9.65%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-26 11:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.08%EV -14.98%E -7.49%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -1.48%E -0.502%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -10.85%E -2.93%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 11:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.08%EV -14.98%E -7.49%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -1.48%E -0.502%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -10.85%E -2.93%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 11:20
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.00%EV -10.73%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.25%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -12.06%E -3.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 11:25
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -8.16%E -2.97%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -13.26%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 11:30
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.41%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.85%EV -12.17%E -4.63%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -13.26%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-26 11:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.41%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.85%EV -12.17%E -4.63%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -13.26%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-26 11:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.45%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.76%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.79%0.1%2026-07-26 11:30
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 44.02%3.12I 32.05%NM 32.02%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.96%0.1%2026-07-26 11:31
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-07-26 11:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-07-26 11:31
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-07-26 11:31