Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC v Henan FC

Inicio: 2026-07-26 11:35 UTC

Final: Shandong Luneng Taishan FC 1–2 Henan FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC (Local)

Predicción 42.51%2.35momio equitativo
EV -3.93%
Ventaja -1.74%
Kelly -3.12%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.26

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.35%42.63%42.54%45.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.912.142.152.2652.36%46.74%46.51%44.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Henan FC (Visitante)

Predicción 33.40%2.99momio equitativo
EV +0.189%
Ventaja +0.063%
Kelly +0.095%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.54%33.29%33.36%35.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.792.783.0040.00%35.83%35.97%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.09%4.15momio equitativo
EV +0.711%
Ventaja +0.170%
Kelly +0.224%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.30%24.08%24.11%25.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.833.804.1827.78%26.10%26.32%23.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Shandong Luneng Taishan FC (Local): 42.51%; Henan FC (Visitante): 33.40%; Empate: 24.09%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.15. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.18, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.711%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.88%EV -5.20%E -2.33%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.78%EV -12.84%E -4.92%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.34%EV +0.711%E +0.170%K +0.224%G +0.002%7.1%2026-07-26 11:30
GTbets🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.59%EV -6.05%E -2.74%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.11%EV -7.83%E -2.84%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.30%EV -2.66%E -0.659%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 11:30
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.40%EV -7.75%E -3.57%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -4.82%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -3.63%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 11:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.38%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.63%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 11:30
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -10.73%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -8.16%E -2.97%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -3.63%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-26 11:29
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.61%EV -18.81%E -9.85%K -20.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.08%EV -16.51%E -6.60%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.30%EV -3.63%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000%17.4%2026-07-26 11:25
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.50%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.82%EV -4.82%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -4.83%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 11:28
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.44%EV -11.50%E -4.34%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.11%EV -4.83%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 11:30
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.97%EV -4.78%E -2.13%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.41%EV -0.813%E -0.274%K -0.413%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.62%EV -5.79%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-26 11:25
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.82%E -1.69%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -6.04%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 11:30
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -7.33%E -3.36%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -6.04%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 11:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.30%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -8.16%E -2.97%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -6.04%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 11:30
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.51%EV -8.16%E -2.97%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -6.04%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 11:30
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.60%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.92%EV -9.83%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -6.04%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-26 11:30
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.60%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.92%EV -9.83%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -6.04%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-26 11:30
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.35%E -1.93%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 11:29
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.24%EV -7.33%E -3.36%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.85%EV -9.16%E -3.37%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 11:30
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.24%EV -7.33%E -3.36%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.85%EV -9.16%E -3.37%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 11:30
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.13%EV -7.33%E -3.36%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.02%EV -9.83%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 11:31
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.24%EV -7.75%E -3.57%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.83%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.81%EV -7.24%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 11:30
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 11:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:31
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:28
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:31
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:30
TABtouch🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:30
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:30
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 11:31
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.35%EV -14.13%E -6.99%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV +0.189%E +0.063%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-26 11:30
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -12.50%E -4.77%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 11:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -12.50%E -4.77%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 11:30
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -12.50%E -4.77%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 11:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -6.48%E -2.94%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -12.50%E -4.77%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 11:30
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -10.73%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -8.16%E -2.97%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 11:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -10.73%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -8.16%E -2.97%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 11:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.91%EV -10.73%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -9.83%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-26 11:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.29%EV -6.90%E -3.15%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.63%EV -9.41%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-26 11:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.98%EV -3.93%E -1.74%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.72%EV -3.15%E -1.09%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -9.65%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 11:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.98%EV -3.93%E -1.74%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.72%EV -3.15%E -1.09%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -9.65%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 11:30
BetUS🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.98%EV -3.93%E -1.74%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.72%EV -3.15%E -1.09%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -9.65%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 11:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.54%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.20%EV -14.84%E -5.82%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -9.65%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-26 11:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.08%EV -14.98%E -7.49%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -1.48%E -0.502%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -10.85%E -2.93%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 11:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.08%EV -14.98%E -7.49%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -1.48%E -0.502%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -10.85%E -2.93%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 11:20
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.00%EV -10.73%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.25%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -12.06%E -3.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 11:25
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -8.16%E -2.97%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -13.26%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 11:30
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.41%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.85%EV -12.17%E -4.63%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -13.26%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-26 11:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.41%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.85%EV -12.17%E -4.63%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -13.26%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-26 11:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.45%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.76%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.79%0.1%2026-07-26 11:30
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 44.02%3.12I 32.05%NM 32.02%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.96%0.1%2026-07-26 11:31
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-07-26 11:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-07-26 11:31
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-07-26 11:31