The School of Odds

Qingdao Hainiu FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC

2026-07-25 09:30 UTC — Super League - China

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Qingdao Hainiu FC (Local)

Prediction 37.27%2.68fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -3.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.88%37.27%37.26%37.72%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.252.452.452.5544%41%41%39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Visit)

Prediction 33.51%2.98fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.51%33.57%33.24%35.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.502.712.732.8940%37%37%35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.22%3.42fair odd
EV -0.645%
Edge -0.190%
Kelly -0.269%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.75%29.17%29.50%30.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.143.103.4034%32%32%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.96%E -1.94%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.08%EV -3.16%E -1.09%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.42%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-18 12:10
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -4.96%E -1.94%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -9.53%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -0.645%E -0.190%K -0.269%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-18 11:50
Pinnacle2.52I 39.68%NM 37.62%EV -6.08%E -2.41%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.03%EV -3.83%E -1.34%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.35%EV -5.61%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-18 12:50
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -6.82%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.07%EV -11.21%E -4.23%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -2.11%E -0.629%K -0.896%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-18 11:50
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.82%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.93%EV -11.21%E -4.23%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-18 11:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.93%EV -6.82%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.10%EV -11.88%E -4.52%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-18 12:00
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -6.82%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -12.21%E -4.66%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-18 12:00
Betsson2.48I 40.32%NM 37.15%EV -7.57%E -3.05%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.14%EV -6.85%E -2.46%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-18 11:55
NordicBet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.15%EV -7.57%E -3.05%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.14%EV -6.85%E -2.46%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-18 11:55
Marathon Bet2.47I 40.49%NM 37.51%EV -7.94%E -3.22%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -6.18%E -2.21%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-18 11:55
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -11.21%E -4.23%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-18 12:00
LeoVegas2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -7.86%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-18 12:45
Unibet (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -7.86%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-18 11:55
888sport2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.18%E -2.21%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-18 12:45
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.18%E -2.21%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-18 12:45
888sport (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.18%E -2.21%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-18 12:45
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.18%E -2.21%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-18 12:45
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 37.09%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.95%EV -12.88%E -4.95%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-18 11:53
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.27%EV -12.41%E -5.28%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.05%EV -11.21%E -4.23%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -13.79%E -4.68%K -7.07%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-18 11:55
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.72%EV -14.28%E -6.21%K -10.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.37%EV -12.88%E -4.95%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.92%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%15.3%2026-07-18 11:55
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -14.28%E -6.21%K -10.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -16.23%E -6.49%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%16.8%2026-07-18 12:39
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 37.37%EV -16.14%E -7.17%K -12.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.63%EV -16.23%E -6.49%K -10.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.99%EV -15.26%E -5.26%K -8.03%G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-18 11:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.54I 39.37%NM 37.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%5.9%2026-07-18 13:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.54I 39.37%NM 37.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%5.9%2026-07-18 13:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.54I 39.37%NM 31.50%2.24I 44.64%NM 35.72%2.44I 40.98%NM 32.79%25.0%2026-07-18 13:05