Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 11:35 UTC

Final: Dalian Yingbo 3–1 Shandong Luneng Taishan FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalian Yingbo (Local)

Prediction 46.26%2.16fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -3.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.52%46.31%46.12%48.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.002.002.0854.64%49.88%50.00%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC (Visit)

Prediction 30.51%3.28fair odd
EV +0.697%
Edge +0.211%
Kelly +0.303%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.64%30.42%30.63%32.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.623.002.953.3038.17%33.39%33.90%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.22%4.31fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.586%
Kelly -0.769%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.22%23.27%23.25%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.943.954.2026.67%25.38%25.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dalian Yingbo (Local): 46.26%; Shandong Luneng Taishan FC (Visit): 30.51%; Draw: 23.22%. For Shandong Luneng Taishan FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.697%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.98I 50.51%NM 47.73%EV -8.40%E -4.24%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV +0.697%E +0.211%K +0.303%G +0.002%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -7.11%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-18 11:30
LowVig.ag1.98I 50.51%NM 47.80%EV -8.40%E -4.24%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.12%EV -0.828%E -0.255%K -0.368%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -4.78%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-18 11:30
Pinnacle2.05I 48.78%NM 46.93%EV -5.16%E -2.52%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.88%EV -1.74%E -0.542%K -0.785%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.18%EV -3.62%E -0.873%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-18 11:20
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -7.48%E -3.74%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -2.35%E -0.736%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -9.43%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-18 11:30
SportsBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -8.40%E -4.24%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -2.35%E -0.736%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -9.43%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 11:30
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -12.10%E -6.37%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -2.35%E -0.736%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -7.11%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-18 11:30
Marathon Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 47.30%EV -9.33%E -4.76%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.52%EV -4.18%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -7.11%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-18 11:30
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -7.48%E -3.74%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -5.41%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -4.78%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-18 11:20
GTbets2.04I 49.02%NM 45.82%EV -5.63%E -2.76%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.41%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.03%EV -9.66%E -2.48%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 11:05
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -7.48%E -3.74%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.41%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.11%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 11:25
BetUS2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -7.48%E -3.74%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.41%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.11%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 11:30
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -9.79%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -5.41%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.11%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-18 11:20
Everygame1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -11.64%E -6.09%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -5.41%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.43%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-18 11:25
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -11.64%E -6.09%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -5.41%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -11.75%E -3.09%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-18 11:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -11.64%E -6.09%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -5.41%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -11.75%E -3.09%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-18 11:30
1xBet2.03I 49.26%NM 46.07%EV -6.09%E -3.00%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.37%EV -6.02%E -1.95%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.56%EV -7.80%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-18 11:30
Coolbet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.16%E -2.52%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.47%EV -8.46%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -2.46%E -0.586%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-18 11:04
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -5.16%E -2.52%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.46%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -7.11%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-18 11:00
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 45.88%EV -7.48%E -3.74%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -8.46%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -9.43%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-18 11:30
betano_uk1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -9.79%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -8.46%E -2.82%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.11%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-18 11:29
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.68%EV -6.55%E -3.24%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.96%EV -9.07%E -3.04%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -8.27%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-18 11:00
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 45.68%EV -6.55%E -3.24%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.96%EV -9.07%E -3.04%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -8.27%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-18 11:00
Unibet (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.81%EV -3.77%E -1.81%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -9.98%E -3.38%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.27%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 11:05
Unibet (NL)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.81%EV -3.77%E -1.81%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -9.98%E -3.38%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.27%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 11:00
Unibet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.81%EV -3.77%E -1.81%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -9.98%E -3.38%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.27%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 11:05
Grosvenor2.08I 48.08%NM 44.81%EV -3.77%E -1.81%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -9.98%E -3.38%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.27%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 11:05
TABtouch2.08I 48.08%NM 44.81%EV -3.77%E -1.81%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -9.98%E -3.38%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.27%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 11:05
betPARX2.08I 48.08%NM 44.81%EV -3.77%E -1.81%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -9.98%E -3.38%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.27%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 11:05
PointsBet (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.30%EV -5.16%E -2.52%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -9.98%E -3.38%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.11%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 11:05
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 45.40%EV -6.55%E -3.24%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -9.98%E -3.38%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -9.43%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-18 11:00
Unibet (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 46.02%EV -8.86%E -4.50%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.73%EV -9.98%E -3.38%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -9.43%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-18 11:00
BetRivers2.07I 48.31%NM 44.69%EV -4.24%E -2.05%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -11.51%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.42%EV -8.27%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-18 11:05
Bet Right2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -7.48%E -3.74%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.51%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -7.11%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-18 11:00
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -5.16%E -2.52%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.51%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -11.75%E -3.09%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-18 11:20
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -5.16%E -2.52%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.51%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -11.75%E -3.09%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-18 11:20
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -5.16%E -2.52%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.51%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -11.75%E -3.09%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-18 11:20
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -5.16%E -2.52%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.51%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -11.75%E -3.09%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-18 11:20
Winamax (DE)1.98I 50.51%NM 45.92%EV -8.40%E -4.24%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -11.51%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -7.11%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-18 11:00
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 44.74%EV -6.55%E -3.24%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.51%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -12.91%E -3.44%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-18 11:10
Neds1.95I 51.28%NM 46.03%EV -9.79%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -11.51%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.02%EV -9.43%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-18 11:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.03%EV -9.79%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -11.51%E -3.97%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.02%EV -9.43%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-18 11:05
betfred_uk2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.16%E -2.52%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -12.12%E -4.21%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -7.11%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-18 11:05
LeoVegas (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -5.16%E -2.52%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.81%EV -12.12%E -4.21%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -9.43%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-18 11:05
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -7.48%E -3.74%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.59%EV -13.03%E -4.57%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.39%EV -10.59%E -2.75%K -3.72%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-18 11:05
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -7.48%E -3.74%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.59%EV -13.03%E -4.57%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.39%EV -10.59%E -2.75%K -3.72%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-18 11:05
Winamax (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 45.78%EV -11.18%E -5.82%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.39%EV -14.56%E -5.20%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.83%EV -10.59%E -2.75%K -3.72%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-18 11:00
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 46.38%EV -15.34%E -8.38%K -18.48%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 32.40%EV -20.05%E -7.65%K -12.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.22%EV -7.11%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%17.8%2026-07-18 11:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.46%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%1.3%2026-07-18 11:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.46%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%1.3%2026-07-18 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.46%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%1.3%2026-07-18 11:30
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.46%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%1.3%2026-07-18 11:25
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 47.09%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.49%2.1%2026-07-18 11:30