Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalian Yingbo v Beijing FC

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 11:35 UTC

Final: Dalian Yingbo 1–1 Beijing FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalian Yingbo (Local)

Prediction 31.99%3.13fair odd
EV +1.08%
Edge +0.343%
Kelly +0.501%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.70%31.93%32.05%33.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.942.903.1638.17%34.06%34.48%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Beijing FC (Visit)

Prediction 42.83%2.33fair odd
EV -4.07%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.95%42.90%42.77%44.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.132.152.2450.51%46.92%46.51%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.18%3.97fair odd
EV -0.019%
Edge -0.005%
Kelly -0.006%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.21%25.17%25.18%26.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.613.603.9729.41%27.69%27.78%25.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dalian Yingbo (Local): 31.99%; Beijing FC (Visit): 42.83%; Draw: 25.18%. For Dalian Yingbo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.16, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 29.86%EV +1.08%E +0.343%K +0.501%G +0.005%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.29%EV -8.78%E -4.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-28 10:25
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV +0.763%E +0.242%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 10:20
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV +0.763%E +0.242%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 10:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV +0.763%E +0.242%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 10:20
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV +0.763%E +0.242%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 10:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV +0.763%E +0.242%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 10:20
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV +0.763%E +0.242%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 10:20
1xBet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 29.74%EV +0.443%E +0.141%K +0.207%G +0.001%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.25%EV -9.63%E -4.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.01%EV -9.59%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 11:25
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.70%EV -2.44%E -0.799%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.41%EV -12.63%E -6.19%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-28 10:20
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.03%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.95%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.55%EV -3.04%E -0.790%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 11:10
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -4.03%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-28 11:10
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -4.03%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.81%EV -4.03%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.27%EV -13.49%E -6.68%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.92%EV -13.11%E -3.80%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-28 10:20
Pinnacle🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.62%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.15%EV -4.49%E -2.02%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.24%EV -0.019%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-28 11:30
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.02%EV -5.78%E -2.63%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.30%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-28 11:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -6.82%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 11:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.82%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-28 11:20
Bet Right🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.12%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.72%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-28 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.37%EV -15.20%E -7.68%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.84%EV -14.37%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-28 10:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.37%EV -15.20%E -7.68%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.84%EV -14.37%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-28 10:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.81%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.48%EV -4.07%E -1.82%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.71%EV -3.04%E -0.790%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-28 11:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.81%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.48%EV -4.07%E -1.82%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.71%EV -3.04%E -0.790%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-28 11:25
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -5.78%E -2.63%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.82%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 11:19
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -5.56%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 11:18
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -5.78%E -2.63%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 11:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.97%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.92%EV -6.31%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-28 11:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.38%EV -7.06%E -3.26%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.60%E -2.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 11:15
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.95%EV -6.64%E -3.04%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -13.11%E -3.80%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-28 11:10
NordicBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.95%EV -6.64%E -3.04%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -13.11%E -3.80%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-28 11:10
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 11:10
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 11:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 11:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 11:10
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -7.87%E -2.73%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-28 11:13
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -7.87%E -2.73%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-28 11:14
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.81%EV -7.87%E -2.73%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.02%EV -6.64%E -3.04%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-28 11:30
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -5.78%E -2.63%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -5.56%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 11:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.25%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-28 11:34
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.22%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-28 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.79%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-28 11:10
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -4.30%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-28 11:25
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-28 11:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-28 11:20
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.37%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-28 11:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.37%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-28 11:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.42%EV -12.03%E -4.38%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.12%EV -10.60%E -2.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-28 11:10
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.27%EV -16.19%E -6.18%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.52%EV -12.20%E -5.95%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.21%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-28 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.05I 32.79%NM 32.50%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%0.9%2026-08-28 11:30
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.70%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73%1.1%2026-08-28 11:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.76%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.36%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.88%1.8%2026-08-28 11:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.76%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.36%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.88%1.8%2026-08-28 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.76%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.36%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.88%1.8%2026-08-28 11:30