Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dalian Yingbo v Beijing FC

Inicio: 2026-08-28 11:35 UTC

Final: Dalian Yingbo 1–1 Beijing FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dalian Yingbo (Local)

Predicción 31.99%3.13momio equitativo
EV +1.08%
Ventaja +0.343%
Kelly +0.501%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.16

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.70%31.93%32.05%33.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.622.942.903.1638.17%34.06%34.48%31.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Beijing FC (Visitante)

Predicción 42.83%2.33momio equitativo
EV -4.07%
Ventaja -1.82%
Kelly -3.28%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.24

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.95%42.90%42.77%44.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.982.132.152.2450.51%46.92%46.51%44.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.18%3.97momio equitativo
EV -0.019%
Ventaja -0.005%
Kelly -0.006%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.97

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.21%25.17%25.18%26.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.613.603.9729.41%27.69%27.78%25.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Dalian Yingbo (Local): 31.99%; Beijing FC (Visitante): 42.83%; Empate: 25.18%. Para Dalian Yingbo (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.13. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.16, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.08%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
GTbets🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 29.86%EV +1.08%E +0.343%K +0.501%G +0.005%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.29%EV -8.78%E -4.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-28 10:25
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV +0.763%E +0.242%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 10:20
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV +0.763%E +0.242%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 10:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV +0.763%E +0.242%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 10:20
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV +0.763%E +0.242%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 10:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV +0.763%E +0.242%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 10:20
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV +0.763%E +0.242%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 10:20
1xBet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 29.74%EV +0.443%E +0.141%K +0.207%G +0.001%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.25%EV -9.63%E -4.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.01%EV -9.59%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 11:25
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.70%EV -2.44%E -0.799%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.41%EV -12.63%E -6.19%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-28 10:20
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.03%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.95%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.55%EV -3.04%E -0.790%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 11:10
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -4.03%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-28 11:10
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -4.03%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.81%EV -4.03%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.27%EV -13.49%E -6.68%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.92%EV -13.11%E -3.80%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-28 10:20
Pinnacle🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.62%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.15%EV -4.49%E -2.02%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.24%EV -0.019%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-28 11:30
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.02%EV -5.78%E -2.63%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.30%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-28 11:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -6.82%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 11:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.82%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-28 11:20
Bet Right🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.12%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.72%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-28 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.37%EV -15.20%E -7.68%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.84%EV -14.37%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-28 10:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.37%EV -15.20%E -7.68%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.84%EV -14.37%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-28 10:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.81%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.48%EV -4.07%E -1.82%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.71%EV -3.04%E -0.790%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-28 11:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.81%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.48%EV -4.07%E -1.82%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.71%EV -3.04%E -0.790%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-28 11:25
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -5.78%E -2.63%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.82%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 11:19
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -5.56%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 11:18
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -5.78%E -2.63%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 11:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.97%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.92%EV -6.31%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-28 11:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.38%EV -7.06%E -3.26%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.60%E -2.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 11:15
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.95%EV -6.64%E -3.04%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -13.11%E -3.80%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-28 11:10
NordicBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.95%EV -6.64%E -3.04%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -13.11%E -3.80%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-28 11:10
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 11:10
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 11:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 11:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 11:10
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -7.87%E -2.73%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-28 11:13
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -7.87%E -2.73%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-28 11:14
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.81%EV -7.87%E -2.73%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.02%EV -6.64%E -3.04%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-28 11:30
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -5.78%E -2.63%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -5.56%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 11:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.25%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-28 11:34
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.22%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-28 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.79%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -11.86%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-28 11:10
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -4.30%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-28 11:25
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-28 11:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-28 11:20
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.37%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-28 11:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.37%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-28 11:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.42%EV -12.03%E -4.38%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.12%EV -10.60%E -2.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-28 11:10
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.27%EV -16.19%E -6.18%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.52%EV -12.20%E -5.95%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.21%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-28 11:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.50%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%0.9%2026-08-28 11:30
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.70%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73%1.1%2026-08-28 11:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.76%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.36%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.88%1.8%2026-08-28 11:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.76%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.36%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.88%1.8%2026-08-28 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.76%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.36%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.88%1.8%2026-08-28 11:30