Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC

Kickoff: 2026-06-27 12:00 UTC

Final: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1–0 Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (Local)

Prediction 45.06%2.22fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -3.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.78%45.24%45.07%48.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.022.052.1354.05%49.54%48.78%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Visit)

Prediction 24.57%4.07fair odd
EV +0.751%
Edge +0.183%
Kelly +0.242%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.31%24.42%24.58%25.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.843.804.1029.41%26.04%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.36%3.29fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -0.888%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.79%30.35%30.34%31.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.063.063.2034.72%32.66%32.68%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (Local): 45.06%; Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Visit): 24.57%; Draw: 30.36%. For Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.07. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.751%.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -7.62%E -3.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV +0.751%E +0.183%K +0.242%G +0.002%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-27 11:50
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.35%EV -13.48%E -7.02%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +0.751%E +0.183%K +0.242%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-27 10:10
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.35%EV -13.48%E -7.02%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +0.751%E +0.183%K +0.242%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-27 10:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.35%EV -13.48%E -7.02%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +0.751%E +0.183%K +0.242%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-27 10:10
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.35%EV -13.48%E -7.02%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +0.751%E +0.183%K +0.242%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-27 10:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.35%EV -13.48%E -7.02%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +0.751%E +0.183%K +0.242%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-27 10:10
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.35%EV -13.48%E -7.02%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +0.751%E +0.183%K +0.242%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-27 10:09
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.74%EV -14.83%E -7.85%K -16.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV +0.751%E +0.183%K +0.242%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-27 10:09
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.65%EV -15.28%E -8.13%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV +0.751%E +0.183%K +0.242%G +0.002%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04%EV -4.36%E -1.38%K -2.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-27 10:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.65%EV -15.28%E -8.13%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV +0.751%E +0.183%K +0.242%G +0.002%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04%EV -4.36%E -1.38%K -2.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-27 10:10
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.08%EV -4.01%E -1.88%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.54%EV +0.260%E +0.064%K +0.084%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.38%EV -7.09%E -2.32%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-27 11:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.18%EV -6.27%E -3.01%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -1.71%E -0.426%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-27 11:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.18%EV -6.27%E -3.01%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -1.71%E -0.426%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-27 11:50
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -7.62%E -3.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -1.71%E -0.426%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-27 11:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.91%EV -9.87%E -4.94%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -1.71%E -0.426%K -0.569%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -10.43%E -3.54%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-27 11:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -16.63%E -8.99%K -19.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -1.71%E -0.426%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-27 10:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -16.63%E -8.99%K -19.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -1.71%E -0.426%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-27 10:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.31%EV -9.87%E -4.94%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.63%EV -3.67%E -0.937%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.07%EV -6.48%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-27 11:39
GTbets🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.17%EV -4.91%E -2.33%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -5.39%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.07%EV -3.75%E -1.18%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-27 11:20
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.99%EV -5.37%E -2.55%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -5.39%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-27 11:50
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -7.62%E -3.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -5.39%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-27 11:50
Everygame🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.66%EV -7.62%E -3.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -5.39%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-27 11:40
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -5.37%E -2.55%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -6.62%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.40%E -2.42%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-27 11:48
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -7.62%E -3.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.62%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-27 11:40
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.03%EV -9.87%E -4.94%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -6.62%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.27%EV -12.56%E -4.36%K -6.68%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-27 11:49
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.36%EV -6.27%E -3.01%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -7.85%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-27 10:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -5.37%E -2.55%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -7.85%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-27 11:19
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -5.37%E -2.55%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -7.85%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 11:49
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -5.37%E -2.55%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -7.85%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 11:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -5.37%E -2.55%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -7.85%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 11:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -5.37%E -2.55%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -7.85%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 11:49
1xBet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.30%EV -4.91%E -2.33%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.06%EV -8.34%E -2.24%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.64%EV -7.40%E -2.42%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-27 11:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -7.62%E -3.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -9.08%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-27 10:50
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -6.27%E -3.01%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -10.31%E -2.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -7.40%E -2.42%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-27 11:20
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -6.27%E -3.01%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -10.31%E -2.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -7.40%E -2.42%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-27 11:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -6.72%E -3.24%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -10.31%E -2.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-27 11:19
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.91%EV -8.97%E -4.44%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.85%EV -10.31%E -2.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.24%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-27 11:50
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.62%E -3.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.54%E -3.20%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 10:49
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.62%E -3.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.54%E -3.20%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 10:49
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.62%E -3.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.54%E -3.20%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 11:50
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -9.87%E -4.94%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.54%E -3.20%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-27 04:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -9.87%E -4.94%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.54%E -3.20%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-27 04:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.28%EV -9.87%E -4.94%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -12.76%E -3.60%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-27 11:19
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.87%E -4.94%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.99%E -4.00%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-27 06:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.37%EV -10.77%E -5.44%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.84%EV -16.45%E -4.84%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -10.43%E -3.54%K -5.35%G +0.000%13.8%2026-06-27 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.93%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%0.8%2026-06-27 11:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.93%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%0.8%2026-06-27 11:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.93%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%0.8%2026-06-27 11:49
Matchbook2.16I 46.30%NM 45.93%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%0.8%2026-06-27 11:50
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 46.50%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.75%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.74%1.0%2026-06-27 10:40