Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC v Shanghai SIPG FC

Início: 2026-08-09 11:35 UTC

Final: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2–3 Shanghai SIPG FC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

44 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (Local)

Previsão 30.07%3.33odd justa
EV +0.746%
Vantagem +0.223%
Kelly +0.317%
Crescimento +0.002%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.27%29.91%30.12%31.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.883.133.103.3534.72%31.93%32.26%29.85%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Shanghai SIPG FC (Visitante)

Previsão 42.68%2.34odd justa
EV -1.40%
Vantagem -0.608%
Kelly -1.07%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.31

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
41.69%42.82%42.59%45.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.982.132.152.3150.51%46.92%46.51%43.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.24%3.67odd justa
EV -1.92%
Vantagem -0.533%
Kelly -0.738%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.30%27.27%27.29%28.58%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.383.403.6031.25%29.56%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (Local): 30.07%; Shanghai SIPG FC (Visitante): 42.68%; Empate: 27.24%. Para Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.33. 8 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.35, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.746%.

Odds das casas de apostas (44 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
BetRivers🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV +0.746%E +0.223%K +0.317%G +0.002%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.27%EV -12.93%E -6.34%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 08:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV +0.746%E +0.223%K +0.317%G +0.002%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.27%EV -12.93%E -6.34%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 08:20
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV +0.746%E +0.223%K +0.317%G +0.002%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.27%EV -12.93%E -6.34%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 08:20
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV +0.746%E +0.223%K +0.317%G +0.002%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.27%EV -12.93%E -6.34%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 08:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV +0.746%E +0.223%K +0.317%G +0.002%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.27%EV -12.93%E -6.34%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 08:20
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV +0.746%E +0.223%K +0.317%G +0.002%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.27%EV -12.93%E -6.34%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 08:20
betPARX🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV +0.746%E +0.223%K +0.317%G +0.002%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.27%EV -12.93%E -6.34%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV +0.746%E +0.223%K +0.317%G +0.002%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -13.78%E -6.82%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.73%E -2.61%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-08 08:20
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -0.758%E -0.230%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.45%EV -15.49%E -7.82%K -15.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 08:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -0.758%E -0.230%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.45%EV -15.49%E -7.82%K -15.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 08:20
Pinnacle🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 29.73%EV -2.56%E -0.791%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.69%EV -1.40%E -0.608%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.58%EV -8.19%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Marathon Bet🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 28.80%EV -3.16%E -0.983%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.93%EV -7.81%E -3.61%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.27%EV -10.64%E -3.24%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-09 11:30
LowVig.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.04%EV -3.77%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.73%EV -3.97%E -1.76%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.23%EV -3.83%E -1.08%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-09 07:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.04%EV -3.77%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.73%EV -3.97%E -1.76%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.23%EV -3.83%E -1.08%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-09 07:25
1xBet🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 29.48%EV -4.67%E -1.47%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.87%EV -6.95%E -3.19%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.65%EV -7.91%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:24
GTbets🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 29.91%EV -4.97%E -1.57%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.16%EV -6.53%E -2.98%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.93%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-03 14:50
Coolbet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.06%EV -5.27%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -7.38%E -3.40%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -1.92%E -0.533%K -0.738%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 07:04
SportsBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -5.27%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.86%EV -6.95%E -3.19%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:20
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.10%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -6.01%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:09
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.10%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 11:10
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.10%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 11:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.64%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 04:50
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.64%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 06:39
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 11:15
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -10.37%E -4.94%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 07:03
Bet Victor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -10.37%E -4.94%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 11:30
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.11%EV -8.28%E -2.71%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.17%EV -3.97%E -1.76%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -3.28%E -0.924%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 04:50
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.28%E -2.71%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -6.95%E -3.19%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.73%E -2.61%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 11:10
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.28%E -2.71%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -6.95%E -3.19%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.73%E -2.61%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 11:10
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.28%E -2.71%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.10%EV -6.95%E -3.19%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 11:10
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -8.28%E -2.71%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.53%EV -10.37%E -4.94%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -6.01%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-09 04:50
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.78%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 11:10
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.78%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 11:24
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.78%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 10:50
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.78%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 10:49
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.78%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 10:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.78%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 10:49
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -9.78%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.46%E -3.52%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 11:30
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -9.78%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.37%E -4.94%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 11:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -9.78%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.37%E -4.94%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 11:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -11.28%E -3.82%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 11:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -10.37%E -4.94%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 11:10
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.26%EV -13.39%E -4.65%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.51%EV -12.50%E -6.10%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.23%EV -12.82%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-09 11:25
BetUS🎯⚠ implausível2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -33.84%E -15.38%K -28.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV +32.31%E +10.42%K +15.39%G +4.97%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -6.01%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:10
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.00%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%1.1%2026-08-09 11:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.00%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%1.1%2026-08-09 11:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.00%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%1.1%2026-08-09 11:30
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 29.70%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-08-09 06:30
Matchbook◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.41%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.84%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.75%1.5%2026-08-09 11:30