Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chengdu Rongcheng FC v Henan FC

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 12:00 UTC

Final: Chengdu Rongcheng FC 3–0 Henan FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Local)

Prediction 62.45%1.60fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.842%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.91%62.38%62.40%63.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.491.501.5871.43%67.05%66.67%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Henan FC (Visit)

Prediction 16.60%6.02fair odd
EV +3.76%
Edge +0.602%
Kelly +0.717%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.05%16.62%16.70%18.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.445.406.2520.41%18.37%18.52%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.95%4.77fair odd
EV -0.494%
Edge -0.104%
Kelly -0.132%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.72%21.00%20.90%23.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.314.204.7527.78%23.21%23.81%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Local): 62.45%; Henan FC (Visit): 16.60%; Draw: 20.95%. For Henan FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.57%EV -7.57%E -5.12%K -15.78%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV +3.76%E +0.602%K +0.717%G +0.027%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -7.83%E -1.78%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 23:44
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -7.57%E -5.12%K -15.78%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -0.388%E -0.065%K -0.078%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -5.73%E -1.27%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 23:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -8.20%E -5.58%K -17.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -0.388%E -0.065%K -0.078%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -5.73%E -1.27%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 23:44
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -8.20%E -5.58%K -17.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -0.388%E -0.065%K -0.078%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -5.73%E -1.27%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 23:44
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.43%EV -9.45%E -6.52%K -21.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -0.388%E -0.065%K -0.078%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.24%EV -9.29%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 00:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -9.45%E -6.52%K -21.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -0.388%E -0.065%K -0.078%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -9.92%E -2.31%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-08 23:24
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -10.07%E -7.00%K -22.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -0.388%E -0.065%K -0.078%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-08 23:44
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.43%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.65%G +0.000%5.89I 16.98%NM 16.15%EV -2.21%E -0.376%K -0.453%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 20.42%EV -2.38%E -0.511%K -0.650%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-08 23:14
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.57%EV -5.70%E -3.78%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -4.54%E -0.789%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -5.73%E -1.27%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 23:00
Bovada🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.17%EV -6.95%E -4.66%K -14.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -4.54%E -0.789%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -3.64%E -0.790%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 23:12
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -4.54%E -0.789%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.73%E -1.27%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.44%EV -8.20%E -5.58%K -17.45%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.96%EV -4.54%E -0.789%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -10.97%E -2.58%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-08 23:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.30%EV -5.70%E -3.78%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -7.03%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -5.73%E -1.27%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 23:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.30%EV -5.70%E -3.78%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -7.03%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -5.73%E -1.27%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 23:04
BetUS🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.30%EV -5.70%E -3.78%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -7.03%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -5.73%E -1.27%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 23:05
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.28%EV -4.45%E -2.91%K -8.40%G +0.000%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.14%EV -7.69%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.58%EV -3.01%E -0.650%K -0.829%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-08 23:04
GTbets🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.06%EV -1.33%E -0.842%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.51I 18.15%NM 17.51%EV -8.52%E -1.55%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.44%EV -5.73%E -1.27%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-08 23:04
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.43%EV -7.57%E -5.12%K -15.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -8.69%E -1.58%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.76%EV -6.78%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 23:04
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.43%EV -7.57%E -5.12%K -15.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -8.69%E -1.58%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.76%EV -6.78%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 23:04
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.31%EV -9.45%E -6.52%K -21.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -8.69%E -1.58%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.26%EV -10.97%E -2.58%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-08 23:00
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -10.07%E -7.00%K -22.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -8.69%E -1.58%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -9.29%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-08 23:43
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 60.85%EV -12.57%E -8.98%K -31.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.49%EV -8.69%E -1.58%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.66%EV -24.58%E -6.83%K -9.46%G +0.000%17.4%2026-05-08 23:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.23%EV -6.95%E -4.66%K -14.18%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -10.35%E -1.92%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -5.73%E -1.27%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 23:03
Codere (IT)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.81%EV -8.82%E -6.04%K -19.18%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.71%EV -10.35%E -1.92%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.48%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 23:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -3.20%E -2.07%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -12.01%E -2.27%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-05 21:15
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -3.20%E -2.07%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -12.01%E -2.27%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-05 21:15
TABtouch🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -3.20%E -2.07%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -12.01%E -2.27%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-05 21:15
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -3.20%E -2.07%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -12.01%E -2.27%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-05 21:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -3.20%E -2.07%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -12.01%E -2.27%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-05 21:14
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -3.20%E -2.07%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -12.01%E -2.27%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-05 21:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.27%EV -11.32%E -7.97%K -26.96%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.68%EV -12.01%E -2.27%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.05%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-09 00:04
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.44%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.65%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -12.84%E -2.45%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -0.494%E -0.104%K -0.132%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 23:00
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.24%EV -3.83%E -2.49%K -7.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -12.84%E -2.45%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-05 21:14
Everygame🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.67%EV -9.45%E -6.52%K -21.00%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.03%EV -12.84%E -2.45%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-08 23:04
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.97%EV -4.45%E -2.91%K -8.40%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -13.67%E -2.63%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -14.11%E -3.44%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-06 17:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.14%EV -8.20%E -5.58%K -17.45%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.57%EV -13.67%E -2.63%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -5.73%E -1.27%K -1.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-08 23:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.29%EV -5.70%E -3.78%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -13.67%E -2.63%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -14.11%E -3.44%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-05 21:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.91%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.65%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.62%EV -15.33%E -3.01%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -16.21%E -4.05%K -5.40%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-06 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.91%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.65%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.62%EV -15.33%E -3.01%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -16.21%E -4.05%K -5.40%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-06 17:30
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -16.99%E -3.40%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-08 10:14
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -16.99%E -3.40%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-08 10:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -16.99%E -3.40%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-08 10:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -16.99%E -3.40%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-08 10:14
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -7.57%E -5.12%K -15.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -16.99%E -3.40%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-08 23:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -7.57%E -5.12%K -15.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -16.99%E -3.40%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-08 23:05
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -10.07%E -7.00%K -22.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -16.99%E -3.40%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-08 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.26%EV -10.70%E -7.48%K -24.88%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.88%EV -18.65%E -3.81%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.86%EV -12.02%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-08 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.51I 66.23%NM 64.79%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.82%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.38%2.2%2026-05-08 23:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.51I 66.23%NM 64.51%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.76%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.73%2.7%2026-05-08 23:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.51I 66.23%NM 64.51%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.76%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.73%2.7%2026-05-08 23:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.51I 66.23%NM 64.51%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.76%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.73%2.7%2026-05-08 23:39
Kalshi1.52I 65.79%NM 64.00%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.56%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.44%2.8%2026-05-09 00:04