Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Beijing FC v Yunnan Yukun

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 12:00 UTC

Final: Beijing FC 3–3 Yunnan Yukun

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Beijing FC (Local)

Prediction 62.84%1.59fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -2.52%
Kelly -7.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.32%62.97%62.86%65.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.461.471.5374.07%68.71%68.03%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yunnan Yukun (Visit)

Prediction 18.38%5.44fair odd
EV +5.70%
Edge +0.990%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.068%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.00%18.30%18.45%20.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.205.105.005.7523.81%19.63%20.00%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.78%5.32fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.266%
Kelly -0.328%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.66%18.73%18.69%20.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.844.905.2522.73%20.66%20.41%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Beijing FC (Local): 62.84%; Yunnan Yukun (Visit): 18.38%; Draw: 18.78%. For Yunnan Yukun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.44. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.70%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.23%EV -11.40%E -8.09%K -27.81%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV +5.70%E +0.990%K +1.20%G +0.068%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -7.97%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-18 07:30
TABtouch🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.23%EV -11.40%E -8.09%K -27.81%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV +5.70%E +0.990%K +1.20%G +0.068%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -7.97%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-18 07:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.23%EV -11.40%E -8.09%K -27.81%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV +5.70%E +0.990%K +1.20%G +0.068%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -7.97%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-18 07:29
Grosvenor🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.23%EV -11.40%E -8.09%K -27.81%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV +5.70%E +0.990%K +1.20%G +0.068%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -7.97%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-18 07:29
Unibet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.23%EV -11.40%E -8.09%K -27.81%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV +5.70%E +0.990%K +1.20%G +0.068%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -7.97%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-18 07:29
betPARX🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.23%EV -11.40%E -8.09%K -27.81%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV +5.70%E +0.990%K +1.20%G +0.068%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -7.97%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-18 07:29
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.55%EV -12.03%E -8.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV +1.10%E +0.200%K +0.244%G +0.003%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.02%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-18 07:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.74%EV -13.29%E -9.63%K -34.96%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV +1.10%E +0.200%K +0.244%G +0.003%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -11.73%E -2.49%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-18 07:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 64.79%EV -15.17%E -11.24%K -43.35%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.20%EV -0.738%E -0.137%K -0.168%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.01%EV -13.60%E -2.96%K -3.78%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-18 07:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 64.79%EV -15.17%E -11.24%K -43.35%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.20%EV -0.738%E -0.137%K -0.168%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.01%EV -13.60%E -2.96%K -3.78%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-18 07:29
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.03%EV -8.26%E -5.66%K -17.95%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.58%E -0.486%K -0.599%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.33%EV -4.21%E -0.826%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 11:49
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.73%EV -10.14%E -7.09%K -23.59%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.47%EV -2.58%E -0.486%K -0.599%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.80%EV -2.33%E -0.449%K -0.556%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 11:50
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.35%EV -5.12%E -3.39%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -3.50%E -0.666%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.43%EV -2.52%E -0.486%K -0.602%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-22 11:50
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.10%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.24%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -3.50%E -0.666%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -1.40%E -0.266%K -0.328%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 11:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.53%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.24%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -3.50%E -0.666%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -6.09%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 11:45
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -5.75%E -3.83%K -11.49%G +0.000%5.24I 19.08%NM 17.86%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.868%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 19.74%EV -10.97%E -2.32%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 11:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.06%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.24%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.83%EV -4.41%E -0.849%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.11%EV -8.91%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 11:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -10.77%E -7.59%K -25.65%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV -4.41%E -0.849%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV -2.33%E -0.449%K -0.556%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 11:00
GTbets🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.89%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.24%G +0.000%5.09I 19.65%NM 18.16%EV -6.44%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.88I 20.49%NM 18.94%EV -8.34%E -1.71%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 11:19
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -6.09%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-22 11:05
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.80%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.30%EV -7.97%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 11:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -4.49%E -2.95%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -7.97%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 11:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -4.49%E -2.95%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -7.97%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 11:54
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -5.12%E -3.39%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -7.97%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 11:53
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.75%E -3.83%K -11.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -6.09%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 10:44
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.00%E -4.73%K -14.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV -6.09%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 11:49
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.89%E -6.13%K -19.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -6.09%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 11:03
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.89%E -6.13%K -19.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -6.09%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 11:04
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -9.52%E -6.61%K -21.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -6.09%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 11:45
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -9.52%E -6.61%K -21.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -6.09%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 11:54
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.26%EV -7.00%E -4.73%K -14.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -17.36%E -3.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.50%EV -12.03%E -8.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.72%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-22 11:49
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.50%EV -12.03%E -8.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -8.09%E -1.62%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.72%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-22 11:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.10%EV -7.00%E -4.73%K -14.59%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -9.93%E -2.03%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 11:44
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.01%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.24%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -9.93%E -2.03%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -11.73%E -2.49%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 11:45
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.01%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.24%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -9.93%E -2.03%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -11.73%E -2.49%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 11:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.49%EV -9.52%E -6.61%K -21.63%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.36%EV -9.93%E -2.03%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.15%EV -11.73%E -2.49%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-22 11:44
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -5.75%E -3.83%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -11.77%E -2.45%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -13.60%E -2.96%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 11:15
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -5.75%E -3.83%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -11.77%E -2.45%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -13.60%E -2.96%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 11:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -5.75%E -3.83%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -11.77%E -2.45%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -13.60%E -2.96%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 11:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -5.75%E -3.83%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -11.77%E -2.45%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -13.60%E -2.96%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 11:15
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -11.77%E -2.45%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 11:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.01%EV -7.63%E -5.19%K -16.24%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -13.61%E -2.89%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -7.97%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 11:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.83%EV -8.89%E -6.13%K -19.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.49%EV -15.44%E -3.36%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-22 11:45
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.32%EV -7.00%E -4.73%K -14.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.84%EV -17.28%E -3.84%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.84%EV -15.48%E -3.44%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-22 11:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.32%EV -7.00%E -4.73%K -14.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.84%EV -17.28%E -3.84%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.84%EV -15.48%E -3.44%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-22 11:05
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.42%EV -12.03%E -8.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.47%EV -22.80%E -5.43%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.10%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%16.3%2026-08-22 11:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.54I 64.94%NM 64.98%5.88I 17.01%NM 17.02%5.56I 17.99%NM 18.00%-0.1%2026-08-22 09:30
Matchbook1.53I 65.36%NM 64.87%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.41%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%0.8%2026-08-22 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.66%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.36%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.99%1.1%2026-08-22 11:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.66%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.36%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.99%1.1%2026-08-22 11:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.46%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93%1.4%2026-08-22 11:55