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Universidad de Concepción v La Serena

2026-08-14 23:00 UTC — Primera División - Chile

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Universidad de Concepción (Local)

Prediction 39.66%2.52fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.66%39.60%39.67%41.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.302.4546.51%43.41%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

La Serena (Visit)

Prediction 32.02%3.12fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.93%32.06%32.10%33.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.842.903.0138.17%35.20%34.48%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.31%3.53fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.15%28.33%28.23%30.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.243.253.4032.79%30.86%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Universidad de Concepción (Local): 39.66%; La Serena (Visit): 32.02%; Draw: 28.31%. For Universidad de Concepción (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.45, with an expected value of -2.83%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.83%E -1.15%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.77%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.33%EV -7.98%E -2.45%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-09 17:19
Pinnacle🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.34%EV -4.42%E -1.83%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.49%EV -3.61%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -7.98%E -2.45%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-09 18:00
GTbets🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.29%EV -4.81%E -2.00%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.33%EV -3.61%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.38%EV -9.11%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 16:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.66%EV -4.81%E -2.00%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.42%EV -13.64%E -4.47%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-09 16:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.66%EV -4.81%E -2.00%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.42%EV -13.64%E -4.47%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-09 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.25%EV -6.40%E -2.71%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.62%EV -6.17%E -2.11%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.13%EV -9.96%E -3.13%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 21:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -6.79%E -2.89%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -7.98%E -2.45%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 20:40
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -7.98%E -3.44%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.95%EV -6.49%E -2.22%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -5.15%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 17:10
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -7.98%E -3.44%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.95%EV -6.49%E -2.22%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -5.15%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 17:10
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.42%EV -7.98%E -3.44%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04%EV -10.81%E -3.43%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 21:40
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.78%E -3.82%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -6.56%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 17:20
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -8.78%E -3.82%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -11.93%E -4.34%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.39%E -2.94%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 20:40
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.68%EV -8.78%E -3.82%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.95%EV -16.10%E -6.14%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -7.98%E -2.45%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 21:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.68%EV -8.78%E -3.82%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.95%EV -16.10%E -6.14%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -7.98%E -2.45%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 21:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.68%EV -8.78%E -3.82%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.95%EV -16.10%E -6.14%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -7.98%E -2.45%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 21:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -10.76%E -4.78%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -3.73%E -1.10%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 16:54
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -10.76%E -4.78%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -5.15%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 16:54
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -10.76%E -4.78%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -6.56%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-09 16:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -10.76%E -4.78%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -13.54%E -5.01%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -7.98%E -2.45%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 20:40
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -12.74%E -5.79%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -6.56%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 21:35
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -12.74%E -5.79%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -6.56%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 16:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.72%EV -12.74%E -5.79%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.97%EV -15.14%E -5.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.31%EV -9.39%E -2.94%K -4.27%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-09 20:40
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.16%EV -14.73%E -6.85%K -12.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -13.54%E -5.01%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.86%EV -12.22%E -3.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-09 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 39.75%3.03I 33.00%NM 30.57%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.68%8.0%2026-08-09 21:20
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 38.96%2.64I 37.88%NM 32.47%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%16.7%2026-08-09 20:40