Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Universidad de Concepción v La Serena

Início: 2026-08-14 22:59 UTC

Final: Universidad de Concepción 0–2 La Serena

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

47 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Universidad de Concepción (Local)

Previsão 41.49%2.41odd justa
EV -2.49%
Vantagem -1.06%
Kelly -1.85%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.84%41.58%41.48%44.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.052.222.222.3548.78%45.11%45.05%42.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

La Serena (Visitante)

Previsão 30.88%3.24odd justa
EV -4.26%
Vantagem -1.37%
Kelly -2.03%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.21%30.83%30.83%32.03%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.872.973.003.1034.84%33.62%33.33%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.62%3.62odd justa
EV -1.94%
Vantagem -0.545%
Kelly -0.759%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.55

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.61%27.60%27.69%29.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.053.273.303.5532.79%30.55%30.30%28.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Universidad de Concepción (Local): 41.49%; La Serena (Visitante): 30.88%; Empate: 27.62%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.62. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.55, com valor esperado de -1.94%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (47 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.89%EV -2.49%E -1.06%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.03%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.07%EV -1.94%E -0.545%K -0.759%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-14 22:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -3.74%E -1.61%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.78%EV -8.58%E -2.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -6.08%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 22:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -3.74%E -1.61%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.78%EV -8.58%E -2.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -6.08%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 22:54
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.70%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.17%EV -4.57%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.13%EV -1.94%E -0.545%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-14 22:44
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.31%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.80%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -4.70%E -1.36%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 22:39
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -8.89%E -3.01%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 22:39
Coolbet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -5.40%E -2.37%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -5.80%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -1.94%E -0.545%K -0.759%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 22:54
GTbets🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.12%EV -5.40%E -2.37%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.15%EV -7.04%E -2.34%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.74%EV -6.63%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 22:49
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.08%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 22:44
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.08%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 22:43
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 22:44
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 22:50
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-14 22:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -11.05%E -3.84%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -14.37%E -4.63%K -6.84%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-14 22:40
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -11.05%E -3.84%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -14.37%E -4.63%K -6.84%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-14 22:40
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.36%E -3.96%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -14.37%E -4.63%K -6.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-14 22:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -6.64%E -2.95%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.36%E -3.96%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -14.37%E -4.63%K -6.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-14 22:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.37%EV -7.06%E -3.15%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.74%EV -7.74%E -2.32%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-14 22:44
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 22:34
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 22:34
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 22:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 22:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.47%E -3.35%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 22:35
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.66%EV -7.89%E -3.55%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -5.80%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 22:44
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.66%EV -7.89%E -3.55%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -5.80%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 22:44
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -3.32%E -0.948%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-14 22:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.08%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-14 22:44
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-14 22:44
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-14 22:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-14 22:44
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -10.22%E -3.15%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 22:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -10.22%E -3.15%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 22:49
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -11.05%E -3.84%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -10.22%E -3.15%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-14 22:44
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -11.05%E -3.84%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-14 22:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -11.05%E -3.84%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-14 22:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -8.72%E -3.96%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -11.05%E -3.84%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-14 22:55
BetRivers🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.38%EV -10.38%E -4.80%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -14.37%E -4.63%K -6.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 22:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -10.79%E -5.02%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -8.89%E -3.01%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 22:40
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -10.79%E -5.02%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-14 22:39
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -10.79%E -5.02%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-14 22:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -10.79%E -5.02%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -11.05%E -3.84%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-14 22:49
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -10.79%E -5.02%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -14.37%E -4.63%K -6.84%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-14 22:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.41%EV -11.21%E -5.24%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.54%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.05%EV -15.75%E -5.16%K -7.68%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-14 22:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.41%EV -11.21%E -5.24%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.54%EV -7.35%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.05%EV -15.75%E -5.16%K -7.68%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-14 22:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -12.87%E -6.13%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -10.44%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-14 22:40
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.55%EV -12.87%E -6.13%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.30%EV -11.05%E -3.84%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.15%EV -14.37%E -4.63%K -6.84%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-14 22:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -14.94%E -7.29%K -14.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -6.08%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-14 22:39
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.61%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.13%0.1%2026-08-14 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.03%0.5%2026-08-14 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.62%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-08-14 22:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.62%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-08-14 22:44
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.26%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.69%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06%1.8%2026-08-14 22:55
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.49%1.9%2026-08-14 22:50