Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Palestino v Universidad Católica (CHI)

Início: 2026-09-12 23:01 UTC

Final: Palestino 2–3 Universidad Católica (CHI)

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

50 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Palestino (Local)

Previsão 29.31%3.41odd justa
EV +7.26%
Vantagem +1.98%
Kelly +2.73%
Crescimento +0.198%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.66

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.24%29.44%29.26%32.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.753.083.103.6636.36%32.44%32.26%27.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Universidad Católica (CHI) (Visitante)

Previsão 44.04%2.27odd justa
EV +0.403%
Vantagem +0.177%
Kelly +0.315%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.28

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
40.98%43.97%43.99%46.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.952.112.102.2851.28%47.42%47.62%43.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.66%3.75odd justa
EV -3.23%
Vantagem -0.891%
Kelly -1.23%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.63

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.99%26.59%26.75%27.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.253.443.443.6330.77%29.08%29.11%27.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Palestino (Local): 29.31%; Universidad Católica (CHI) (Visitante): 44.04%; Empate: 26.66%. Para Palestino (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.41. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.66, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +7.26%.

Odds das casas de apostas (50 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 26.24%EV +7.26%E +1.98%K +2.73%G +0.198%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.17%EV -8.40%E -4.04%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.59%EV -7.23%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 22:59
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -0.361%E -0.106%K -0.150%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -3.12%E -1.42%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-12 23:00
GTbets🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 29.21%EV -3.58%E -1.09%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.49%EV -2.68%E -1.21%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.30%EV -6.16%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 22:46
Pinnacle🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 29.34%EV -3.88%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.15%EV -4.00%E -1.83%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.51%EV -3.23%E -0.891%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-12 22:55
BetOnline.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.76%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.05%EV -5.76%E -2.69%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 22:59
BetAnything🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.76%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.05%EV -5.76%E -2.69%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 22:59
betano_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -4.76%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -4.03%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 23:00
BetUS🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.76%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 22:59
LowVig.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.76%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.88%EV -5.76%E -2.69%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -8.03%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 23:00
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.76%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 23:00
Bet Victor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.76%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 23:00
Bovada🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -4.76%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -9.72%E -4.74%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-12 22:59
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.22%E -1.94%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -9.72%E -4.74%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.03%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 22:45
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -6.22%E -1.94%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -6.64%E -3.13%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 23:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.22%E -1.94%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 22:45
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -6.22%E -1.94%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.90%EV -13.25%E -6.72%K -13.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 22:50
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -7.69%E -2.44%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -6.64%E -3.13%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 22:45
Codere (IT)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -7.69%E -2.44%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-12 22:46
Marathon Bet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.67%EV -8.57%E -2.75%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.26%EV -5.76%E -2.69%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.07%EV -8.83%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-12 22:57
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -9.15%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.03%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-12 22:59
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -9.15%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.03%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-12 22:45
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.15%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 22:45
PlayUp🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.15%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%EV -8.40%E -4.04%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -10.70%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 23:00
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.15%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -11.93%E -5.96%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 22:46
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.15%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -11.93%E -5.96%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 22:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.15%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -11.93%E -5.96%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 22:46
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.15%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -11.93%E -5.96%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 22:45
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -9.15%E -2.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.74%EV -13.69%E -6.98%K -14.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -13.36%E -4.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-12 23:00
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -10.62%E -3.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.12%EV -9.72%E -4.74%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%EV -8.03%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 22:45
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.61%EV -10.62%E -3.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.42%EV -8.40%E -4.04%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.70%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 22:50
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -12.08%E -4.03%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -5.32%E -2.48%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.03%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 22:40
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -12.08%E -4.03%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.72%E -4.74%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 22:59
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -12.08%E -4.03%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.72%E -4.74%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 22:59
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -12.08%E -4.03%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -13.36%E -4.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 22:59
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -12.08%E -4.03%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -13.36%E -4.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 22:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -12.08%E -4.03%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -13.36%E -4.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 22:59
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -12.08%E -4.03%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.82%EV -11.93%E -5.96%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -13.36%E -4.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-12 22:45
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -13.55%E -4.59%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.02%EV -6.64%E -3.13%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 22:40
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -15.01%E -5.18%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV +0.403%E +0.177%K +0.315%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-07 14:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -15.01%E -5.18%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV +0.403%E +0.177%K +0.315%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-07 14:40
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -15.01%E -5.18%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV +0.403%E +0.177%K +0.315%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-07 14:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -15.01%E -5.18%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV +0.403%E +0.177%K +0.315%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-07 14:39
TABtouch🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -15.01%E -5.18%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV +0.403%E +0.177%K +0.315%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-07 14:40
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -15.01%E -5.18%K -7.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.85%EV -14.13%E -7.25%K -14.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.99%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-12 22:48
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -15.60%E -5.42%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 22:40
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -15.60%E -5.42%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 22:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -15.60%E -5.42%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.20%EV -9.72%E -4.74%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-12 22:50
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -17.94%E -6.41%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.16%EV -4.00%E -1.83%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.79%EV -10.70%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-07 14:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -19.41%E -7.06%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -12.03%E -3.65%K -5.23%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-07 14:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -19.41%E -7.06%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -12.03%E -3.65%K -5.23%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-07 14:39
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.92%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.75%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.33%0.2%2026-09-12 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.97%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-09-12 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.97%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-09-12 22:55
Smarkets◎3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.5%2026-09-12 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.05%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.57%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%4.3%2026-09-12 23:00
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 30.49%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.86%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.65%5.1%2026-09-12 22:46