Language:English
Deportes Concepción v Audax Italiano
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Deportes Concepción (Local)
Prediction 47.08%2.12fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -3.80%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.56%47.16%46.98%49.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.961.952.0454.64%51.02%51.28%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Audax Italiano (Visit)
Prediction 24.93%4.01fair odd
EV +0.453%
Edge +0.112%
Kelly +0.149%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.03
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.54%24.80%24.97%26.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.633.604.0329.85%27.57%27.78%24.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.99%3.57fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -0.909%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.30%28.04%28.05%28.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.253.4632.26%30.70%30.77%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportes Concepción (Local): 47.08%; Audax Italiano (Visit): 24.93%; Draw: 27.99%. For Audax Italiano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.03, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.453%.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.33%EV -6.31%E -3.17%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.87%EV +0.453%E +0.112%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.80%EV -3.15%E -0.909%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.28%EV -13.84%E -7.56%K -16.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -0.295%E -0.074%K -0.098%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -10.42%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -5.28%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 08:35 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.28%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.28%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 12:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -5.28%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 04:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -6.53%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.76%EV -10.55%E -5.55%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 24.33%EV -7.03%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.02%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -3.95%E -1.94%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -7.77%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -9.02%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -3.95%E -1.94%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -7.77%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -9.02%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.77%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 00:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -7.77%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -9.02%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 08:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.84%EV -6.78%E -3.42%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -7.77%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.84%EV -6.78%E -3.42%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -7.77%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.84%EV -6.78%E -3.42%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -7.77%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-03 14:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -7.25%E -3.68%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -7.77%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 27.91%EV -7.06%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.96%EV -7.72%E -3.94%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -10.27%E -2.85%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-03 11:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -10.27%E -2.85%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -10.42%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -10.07%E -5.27%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -10.27%E -2.85%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-03 11:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -10.07%E -5.27%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -10.27%E -2.85%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-04 00:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -10.27%E -2.85%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -13.22%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -10.27%E -2.85%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -13.22%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -10.27%E -2.85%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -13.22%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.80%EV -3.95%E -1.94%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -11.51%E -3.24%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 10:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.80%EV -3.95%E -1.94%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -11.51%E -3.24%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 10:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.80%EV -3.95%E -1.94%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -11.51%E -3.24%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 10:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.80%EV -3.95%E -1.94%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -11.51%E -3.24%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 10:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.80%EV -3.95%E -1.94%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -11.51%E -3.24%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -6.23%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 10:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.71%EV -9.60%E -5.00%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -11.51%E -3.24%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -10.42%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.37%EV -11.96%E -6.39%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -11.51%E -3.24%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -10.42%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -10.07%E -5.27%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -12.76%E -3.65%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -9.02%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-03 11:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.76%E -3.65%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.22%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-04 08:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.76%E -3.65%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.22%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-04 08:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.76%E -3.65%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.22%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-04 08:28 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.76%E -3.65%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.22%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-04 08:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.78%EV -11.96%E -6.39%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -12.76%E -3.65%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -13.22%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-09-04 08:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -15.25%E -4.49%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -10.42%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-03 10:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.56%EV -8.66%E -4.47%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -16.50%E -4.92%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.06%EV -11.82%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-03 10:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.56%EV -8.66%E -4.47%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -16.50%E -4.92%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.06%EV -11.82%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-03 10:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.63% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.93% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44% | 1.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.63% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.93% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44% | 1.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.63% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.93% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44% | 1.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.07% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 2.0% | 2026-09-04 12:05 |