Language:English
Vila Nova v Goiás
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vila Nova (Local)
Prediction 46.11%2.17fair odd
EV -5.93%
Edge -2.91%
Kelly -5.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.40%46.19%46.11%48.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.992.002.0454.64%50.29%50.00%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Goiás (Visit)
Prediction 23.83%4.20fair odd
EV +0.098%
Edge +0.023%
Kelly +0.031%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.30%23.76%23.79%25.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.783.804.2028.99%26.44%26.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.05%3.33fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.11%30.05%30.10%31.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.053.053.2034.48%32.75%32.79%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 46.11%; Goiás (Visit): 23.83%; Draw: 30.05%. For Goiás (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.196. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.200, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.098%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -15.61%E -8.53%K -18.81%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV +0.098%E +0.023%K +0.031%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-09 11:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.82%EV -6.85%E -3.39%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 22.96%EV -1.81%E -0.439%K -0.580%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.22%EV -5.93%E -1.89%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-08 16:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.25%EV -6.39%E -3.15%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -4.67%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 15:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -7.78%E -3.89%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -4.67%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 16:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.64%EV -8.70%E -4.39%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -4.67%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -8.33%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-08 15:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.64%EV -8.70%E -4.39%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -4.67%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -8.33%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-08 15:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.32%EV -7.31%E -3.64%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 23.45%EV -5.38%E -1.36%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.23%EV -7.43%E -2.41%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.54%EV -8.24%E -4.14%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 23.39%EV -5.62%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.07%EV -7.43%E -2.41%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 45.74%EV -6.39%E -3.15%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -7.05%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -8.33%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-09 14:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.34%EV -7.78%E -3.89%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -7.05%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 14:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.34%EV -7.78%E -3.89%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -7.05%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 13:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -6.85%E -3.39%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -7.05%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.38%EV -8.33%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 12:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -6.85%E -3.39%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -7.05%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.38%EV -8.33%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 12:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.40%EV -7.78%E -3.89%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -12.84%E -4.43%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.40%EV -7.78%E -3.89%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -12.84%E -4.43%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.40%EV -7.78%E -3.89%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -12.84%E -4.43%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.40%EV -7.78%E -3.89%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -7.05%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -12.84%E -4.43%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-09 13:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.37%EV -10.08%E -5.17%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.49%EV -8.24%E -2.14%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.14%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-09 16:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -7.78%E -3.89%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -9.43%E -2.48%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-07 22:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -7.78%E -3.89%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -9.43%E -2.48%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-09 15:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -7.78%E -3.89%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -9.43%E -2.48%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-09 15:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.58%EV -6.85%E -3.39%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -9.43%E -2.48%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -8.33%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-07 16:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.58%EV -6.85%E -3.39%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -9.43%E -2.48%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -8.33%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-07 16:33 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -7.78%E -3.89%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.43%E -2.48%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 14:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -7.78%E -3.89%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.43%E -2.48%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 14:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -10.08%E -5.17%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -9.43%E -2.48%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-07 06:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -10.08%E -5.17%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -9.43%E -2.48%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-07 06:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.27%EV -11.93%E -6.24%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -9.43%E -2.48%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.47%EV -12.84%E -4.43%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-09 12:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.08%EV -10.08%E -5.17%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -10.63%E -2.83%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-09 14:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -5.93%E -2.91%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -11.82%E -3.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -3.82%E -1.20%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 09:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -5.93%E -2.91%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -11.82%E -3.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -3.82%E -1.20%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 09:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -5.93%E -2.91%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -11.82%E -3.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -3.82%E -1.20%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -5.93%E -2.91%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -11.82%E -3.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -3.82%E -1.20%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -5.93%E -2.91%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -11.82%E -3.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -3.82%E -1.20%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -5.93%E -2.91%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -11.82%E -3.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -3.82%E -1.20%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -5.93%E -2.91%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -11.82%E -3.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -3.82%E -1.20%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 09:52 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -6.85%E -3.39%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -11.82%E -3.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-08 22:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.00%EV -8.70%E -4.39%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -11.82%E -3.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-09 15:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.40%EV -8.70%E -4.39%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.63%EV -13.01%E -3.56%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.97%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-07 16:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.78%E -3.89%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -14.20%E -3.94%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -10.08%E -5.17%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -14.20%E -3.94%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -10.08%E -5.17%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -14.20%E -3.94%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -10.08%E -5.17%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -14.20%E -3.94%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -10.08%E -5.17%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -14.20%E -3.94%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 15:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.56%EV -9.62%E -4.91%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -15.39%E -4.34%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.28%EV -8.33%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.53%EV -10.08%E -5.17%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -16.58%E -4.74%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -8.33%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.43%EV -10.54%E -5.43%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -16.58%E -4.74%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.40%EV -11.00%E -5.70%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -17.78%E -5.15%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.40%EV -11.00%E -5.70%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -17.78%E -5.15%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -9.84%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.10% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.30% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60% | 2.1% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.10% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.30% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60% | 2.1% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.10% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.30% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60% | 2.1% | 2026-09-09 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.86% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.19% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.96% | 2.6% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.61% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22% | 5.0% | 2026-09-09 13:50 |