Idioma:Español
Vila Nova v Ceará
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Vila Nova (Local)
Predicción 52.23%1.91momio equitativo
EV -2.86%
Ventaja -1.54%
Kelly -3.32%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.86
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.61%52.27%52.21%54.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.651.771.771.8660.61%56.38%56.50%53.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Ceará (Visitante)
Predicción 19.97%5.01momio equitativo
EV +2.64%
Ventaja +0.514%
Kelly +0.638%
Crecimiento +0.017%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.14
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.03%19.94%19.98%22.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.854.484.505.1425.97%22.30%22.22%19.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 27.80%3.60momio equitativo
EV -2.69%
Ventaja -0.769%
Kelly -1.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.73%27.79%27.81%28.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.303.303.5032.26%30.28%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Vila Nova (Local): 52.23%; Ceará (Visitante): 19.97%; Empate: 27.80%. Para Ceará (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.01. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.14, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.64%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (44 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.33%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.68%EV +2.64%E +0.514%K +0.638%G +0.017% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.99%EV -4.64%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -13.82%E -8.38%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -0.153%E -0.031%K -0.038%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-30 21:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.92%EV -7.56%E -4.27%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -2.15%E -0.439%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -6.86%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.92%EV -7.56%E -4.27%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -2.15%E -0.439%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -6.86%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 21:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.56%EV -7.03%E -3.95%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.09%EV -2.15%E -0.439%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 20:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.70%EV -7.56%E -4.27%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -2.15%E -0.439%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.27%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-30 20:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.65%EV -8.60%E -4.91%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.00%EV -3.15%E -0.649%K -0.818%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-30 21:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.65%EV -8.60%E -4.91%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.00%EV -3.15%E -0.649%K -0.818%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-30 21:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.51%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.15%E -0.864%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-30 20:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.82%EV -7.56%E -4.27%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -5.15%E -1.08%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.50%EV -9.64%E -5.58%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.12%EV -5.15%E -1.08%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-30 20:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.64%EV -10.17%E -5.91%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -5.15%E -1.08%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -7.03%E -3.95%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.91%EV -7.14%E -1.54%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.91%EV -7.03%E -3.95%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV -8.14%E -1.77%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-30 20:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.19%EV -8.08%E -4.59%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -8.14%E -1.77%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-30 20:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -8.60%E -4.91%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -8.14%E -1.77%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-30 20:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -8.60%E -4.91%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -8.14%E -1.77%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-30 20:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.17%EV -9.64%E -5.58%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.62%EV -8.14%E -1.77%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.84%EV -11.21%E -6.60%K -16.02%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.53%EV -8.14%E -1.77%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-30 21:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.57%EV -7.03%E -3.95%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 20.70%EV -9.74%E -2.15%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -2.69%E -0.769%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 21:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.14%E -2.25%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.04%EV -7.56%E -4.27%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -10.14%E -2.25%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.86%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-30 21:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.82%EV -7.56%E -4.27%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -10.14%E -2.25%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.68%EV -9.12%E -5.24%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -10.14%E -2.25%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.88%EV -8.60%E -4.91%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -10.14%E -2.25%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.88%EV -8.60%E -4.91%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -10.14%E -2.25%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.88%EV -8.60%E -4.91%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -10.14%E -2.25%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.88%EV -8.60%E -4.91%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -10.14%E -2.25%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.17%EV -9.64%E -5.58%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.06%EV -10.14%E -2.25%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-30 20:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.76%EV -9.64%E -5.58%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.68%EV -13.53%E -3.13%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.08%EV -9.64%E -5.58%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.41%EV -13.53%E -3.13%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -13.81%E -4.46%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-30 21:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.25%EV -2.86%E -1.54%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -16.13%E -3.84%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 21:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -3.38%E -1.83%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -16.13%E -3.84%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 21:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -3.38%E -1.83%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -16.13%E -3.84%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 21:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -3.38%E -1.83%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -16.13%E -3.84%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 21:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -3.38%E -1.83%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -16.13%E -3.84%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 21:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -3.38%E -1.83%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -16.13%E -3.84%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 21:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -3.38%E -1.83%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -16.13%E -3.84%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 21:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -4.42%E -2.42%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -20.12%E -5.03%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-30 21:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.76%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.68%EV -21.12%E -5.35%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-30 21:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.76%EV -6.51%E -3.64%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -22.12%E -5.67%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-30 21:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.69%EV -7.03%E -3.95%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.68%EV -22.12%E -5.67%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-30 21:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 49.61%EV -8.08%E -4.59%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.68%EV -23.12%E -6.00%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.72%EV -12.42%E -3.94%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-08-30 21:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 49.61%EV -8.08%E -4.59%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.68%EV -23.12%E -6.00%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.72%EV -12.42%E -3.94%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-08-30 21:24 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.35% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.14% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.51% | 0.2% | 2026-08-30 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.62% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.62% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.76% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.98% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26% | 1.1% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.50% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.13% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.38% | 2.1% | 2026-08-30 21:20 |