Language:English
Vila Nova v Atletico Goianiense
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vila Nova (Local)
Prediction 43.89%2.28fair odd
EV +0.061%
Edge +0.027%
Kelly +0.048%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.09%44.00%43.71%46.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.132.132.2851.81%46.89%46.84%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Atletico Goianiense (Visit)
Prediction 24.17%4.14fair odd
EV +3.19%
Edge +0.748%
Kelly +0.977%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 4.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.51%24.06%24.32%26.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.773.754.2729.41%26.53%26.67%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.95%3.13fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -0.948%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.74%31.94%31.96%32.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.862.873.0436.36%34.91%34.90%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 43.89%; Atletico Goianiense (Visit): 24.17%; Draw: 31.95%. For Atletico Goianiense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.14. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.19%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.82%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.53%EV +3.19%E +0.748%K +0.977%G +0.031% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.65%EV -2.88%E -0.948%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -6.08%E -2.84%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.92%EV +1.50%E +0.358%K +0.469%G +0.007% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.09%EV -4.16%E -1.39%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -6.08%E -2.84%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.92%EV +1.50%E +0.358%K +0.469%G +0.007% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.09%EV -4.16%E -1.39%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.80%EV -15.30%E -7.93%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV +1.50%E +0.358%K +0.469%G +0.007% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.69%EV -8.95%E -3.14%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.47%EV -11.79%E -5.86%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.40%EV +0.777%E +0.186%K +0.245%G +0.002% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.13%EV -4.16%E -1.39%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -0.915%E -0.223%K -0.295%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -8.95%E -3.14%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-04 22:43 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.21%EV -10.47%E -5.13%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.77%EV -2.12%E -0.524%K -0.696%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.02%EV -7.99%E -2.78%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.71%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -3.33%E -0.833%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.82%EV -5.76%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -3.33%E -0.833%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-04 22:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -12.23%E -6.11%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -3.33%E -0.833%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -4.16%E -1.39%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-04 22:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -5.75%E -1.47%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -5.75%E -1.47%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -5.75%E -1.47%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.16%EV -10.03%E -4.89%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -6.96%E -1.81%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -10.03%E -4.89%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.17%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.16%E -1.39%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-04 22:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -5.64%E -2.63%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -8.17%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-04 22:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.03%EV -12.23%E -6.11%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -8.17%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.27%EV -7.99%E -2.78%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-04 22:48 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.77%EV -10.03%E -4.89%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -8.17%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -12.15%E -4.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-04 22:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.01%EV -6.96%E -3.28%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -9.37%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -4.16%E -1.39%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.11%EV -5.64%E -2.63%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -9.37%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -7.99%E -2.78%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-04 22:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.11%EV -5.64%E -2.63%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -9.37%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -7.99%E -2.78%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-04 22:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.11%EV -5.64%E -2.63%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -9.37%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -7.99%E -2.78%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-04 22:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96%EV -5.64%E -2.63%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -9.37%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.41%EV -8.95%E -3.14%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-04 22:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -7.84%E -3.73%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -10.58%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -5.76%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 43.05%EV -6.52%E -3.06%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -10.58%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.17%EV -8.95%E -3.14%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-04 22:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -1.26%E -0.558%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -11.79%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -7.99%E -2.78%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -1.26%E -0.558%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -11.79%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -7.99%E -2.78%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -1.26%E -0.558%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -11.79%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -7.99%E -2.78%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -1.26%E -0.558%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -11.79%E -3.23%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -7.99%E -2.78%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -5.64%E -2.63%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -13.00%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-04 22:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -10.03%E -4.89%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -13.00%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-04 22:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -10.03%E -4.89%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -13.00%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-04 22:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -10.03%E -4.89%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -13.00%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-04 22:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -10.03%E -4.89%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -13.00%E -3.61%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-04 22:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV +0.061%E +0.027%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -14.21%E -4.00%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.35%E -2.54%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-04 22:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV +0.061%E +0.027%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -14.21%E -4.00%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.35%E -2.54%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-04 22:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV +0.061%E +0.027%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -14.21%E -4.00%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.35%E -2.54%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-04 22:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV +0.061%E +0.027%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -14.21%E -4.00%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.53%EV -7.99%E -2.78%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-04 22:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.24%EV -2.13%E -0.957%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -14.21%E -4.00%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-04 22:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -3.45%E -1.57%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.76%EV -14.21%E -4.00%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.51%EV -4.77%E -2.20%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -15.42%E -4.40%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.75%EV -12.15%E -4.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.51%EV -4.77%E -2.20%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -15.42%E -4.40%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.75%EV -12.15%E -4.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.26%EV -3.45%E -1.57%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -16.62%E -4.82%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -10.55%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-04 22:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.09%EV -4.33%E -1.99%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -17.83%E -5.24%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -12.15%E -4.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-04 22:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.00% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.00% | 1.0% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.00% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.00% | 1.0% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.00% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.00% | 1.0% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.00% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.00% | 1.0% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.13% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.16% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.71% | 2.6% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |