Language:English
Vila Nova v América Mineiro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vila Nova (Local)
Prediction 63.28%1.58fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -3.84%
Kelly -11.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.93%63.26%63.28%65.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.461.461.4971.43%68.62%68.73%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
América Mineiro (Visit)
Prediction 13.24%7.55fair odd
EV +5.94%
Edge +0.742%
Kelly +0.848%
Growth +0.050%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.71%13.27%13.24%15.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.796.608.0016.67%14.73%15.15%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.48%4.26fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.328%
Kelly -0.430%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.14%23.47%23.47%25.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.923.904.2027.78%25.51%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 63.28%; América Mineiro (Visit): 13.24%; Draw: 23.48%. For América Mineiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.55. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.94%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.02%EV -6.98%E -4.75%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.95%EV +5.94%E +0.742%K +0.848%G +0.050% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.03%EV -2.55%E -0.615%K -0.810%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-18 15:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.98%EV -10.15%E -7.15%K -24.16%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV +5.94%E +0.742%K +0.848%G +0.050% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -1.38%E -0.328%K -0.430%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-18 07:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.53%EV -8.25%E -5.69%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.07%EV +2.63%E +0.339%K +0.389%G +0.010% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-18 13:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -6.35%E -4.29%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -0.685%E -0.091%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-18 13:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.27%EV -8.25%E -5.69%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -0.685%E -0.091%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 13:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.59%EV -9.52%E -6.65%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -0.685%E -0.091%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-18 13:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.66%EV -8.88%E -6.17%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -0.685%E -0.091%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -10.77%E -2.83%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-18 13:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.66%EV -8.88%E -6.17%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -0.685%E -0.091%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -10.77%E -2.83%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-18 13:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.66%EV -8.88%E -6.17%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -0.685%E -0.091%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -10.77%E -2.83%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-18 13:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.66%EV -8.88%E -6.17%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -0.685%E -0.091%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -10.77%E -2.83%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-18 13:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.31%EV -11.41%E -8.15%K -28.53%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -0.685%E -0.091%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -10.77%E -2.83%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-18 13:48 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.01%EV -7.62%E -5.22%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -2.01%E -0.272%K -0.314%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-18 13:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.01%EV -7.62%E -5.22%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -2.01%E -0.272%K -0.314%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-18 13:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.83%EV -8.25%E -5.69%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.68%EV -3.33%E -0.457%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.49%EV -7.48%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-18 15:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.97%EV -8.88%E -6.17%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.71%EV -4.00%E -0.551%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.32%EV -7.25%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-18 14:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.88%EV -8.88%E -6.17%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.78%EV -4.66%E -0.647%K -0.751%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.35%EV -7.48%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-18 15:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.23%EV -6.35%E -4.29%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -7.31%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-18 13:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.58%EV -8.88%E -6.17%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -7.31%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -1.38%E -0.328%K -0.430%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-17 06:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -8.25%E -5.69%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -7.31%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -8.42%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-18 13:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -11.41%E -8.15%K -28.53%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -7.31%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -6.07%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-18 13:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.16%EV -6.35%E -4.29%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.63%EV -10.62%E -1.57%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -10.77%E -2.83%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-18 13:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.34%EV -6.35%E -4.29%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -10.62%E -1.57%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.22%EV -15.47%E -4.30%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-18 14:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.51%EV -6.98%E -4.75%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.92%EV -12.60%E -1.91%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -8.42%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-18 14:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.32%EV -6.98%E -4.75%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.88%EV -12.60%E -1.91%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -9.59%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-18 14:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.32%EV -6.98%E -4.75%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.88%EV -12.60%E -1.91%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -9.59%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-18 14:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.79%EV -5.72%E -3.84%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -13.93%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -3.72%E -0.908%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-18 10:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.79%EV -5.72%E -3.84%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -13.93%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -3.72%E -0.908%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-18 10:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.79%EV -5.72%E -3.84%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -13.93%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -3.72%E -0.908%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-18 10:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.79%EV -5.72%E -3.84%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -13.93%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -3.72%E -0.908%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-18 10:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.79%EV -5.72%E -3.84%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -13.93%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -3.72%E -0.908%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-18 10:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.79%EV -5.72%E -3.84%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -13.93%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -3.72%E -0.908%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-18 10:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.79%EV -5.72%E -3.84%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -13.93%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -3.72%E -0.908%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-18 10:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.22%EV -6.35%E -4.29%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -13.93%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -8.42%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-18 14:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -8.88%E -6.17%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -13.93%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -10.77%E -2.83%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-18 15:08 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -8.88%E -6.17%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -13.93%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -10.77%E -2.83%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-18 15:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.28%EV -8.88%E -6.17%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.80%EV -13.93%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.94%E -3.18%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-18 13:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.14%EV -11.41%E -8.15%K -28.53%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -13.93%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -10.77%E -2.83%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-18 14:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.49%EV -6.35%E -4.29%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -17.24%E -2.76%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -10.77%E -2.83%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-18 14:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.99%EV -6.98%E -4.75%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.94%EV -19.22%E -3.15%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.07%EV -7.25%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-18 10:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.93%EV -6.35%E -4.29%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -20.55%E -3.42%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -11.94%E -3.18%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-18 13:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.93%EV -6.35%E -4.29%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -20.55%E -3.42%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -11.94%E -3.18%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-18 13:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.93%EV -6.35%E -4.29%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -20.55%E -3.42%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -11.94%E -3.18%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-18 13:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.93%EV -6.35%E -4.29%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -20.55%E -3.42%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -11.94%E -3.18%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-18 13:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.98%EV -8.25%E -5.69%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -20.55%E -3.42%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.04%EV -8.42%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-18 10:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.98%EV -8.25%E -5.69%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -20.55%E -3.42%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.04%EV -8.42%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-18 10:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -8.88%E -6.17%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -20.55%E -3.42%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -8.42%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-18 10:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 62.12%EV -9.52%E -6.65%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.81%EV -20.55%E -3.42%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.07%EV -9.59%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-18 10:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 62.12%EV -9.52%E -6.65%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.81%EV -20.55%E -3.42%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.07%EV -9.59%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-18 10:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.33% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 11.03% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-09-18 15:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.67% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 0.8% | 2026-09-18 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.99% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.49% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.52% | 1.2% | 2026-09-18 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.99% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.49% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.52% | 1.2% | 2026-09-18 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.99% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.49% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.52% | 1.2% | 2026-09-18 15:10 |