Language:English
Sport Recife v Nautico PE
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sport Recife (Local)
Prediction 40.08%2.50fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.25%40.13%40.14%42.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.262.282.4347.62%44.24%43.86%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nautico PE (Visit)
Prediction 30.05%3.33fair odd
EV -0.843%
Edge -0.255%
Kelly -0.366%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.17%30.12%29.89%31.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.103.103.3037.04%32.22%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.88%3.35fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -0.893%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.82%29.75%29.96%30.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.123.103.2534.72%32.03%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport Recife (Local): 40.08%; Nautico PE (Visit): 30.05%; Draw: 29.88%. For Nautico PE (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -0.843%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.66%EV -2.62%E -1.08%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.12%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 30.21%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-30 23:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.83%EV -5.42%E -2.30%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-30 23:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.83%EV -5.42%E -2.30%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-30 23:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.32%EV -5.82%E -2.48%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -5.89%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -5.82%E -2.48%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -4.40%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-30 23:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -5.82%E -2.48%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -12.86%E -4.44%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-30 23:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -5.82%E -2.48%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -12.86%E -4.44%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.37%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.61%EV -6.22%E -2.66%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.10%EV -7.45%E -2.42%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.29%EV -8.58%E -2.80%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-30 23:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.56%EV -6.62%E -2.84%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.35%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.88%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-30 23:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.56%EV -6.62%E -2.84%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.35%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.88%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-30 23:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -7.83%E -3.40%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-30 22:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.83%E -3.40%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-30 23:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.83%E -3.40%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-30 23:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.83%E -3.40%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.83%E -3.40%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.86%E -4.44%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-30 23:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.83%E -3.40%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.86%E -4.44%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-30 23:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.83%E -3.40%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.86%E -4.44%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-30 23:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.83%E -3.40%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.86%E -4.44%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-30 23:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -7.83%E -3.40%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -13.46%E -4.67%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.37%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-30 23:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.27%EV -8.63%E -3.78%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -8.88%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-30 22:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.27%EV -8.63%E -3.78%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -8.88%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-30 22:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 40.38%EV -9.03%E -3.98%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -8.88%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-30 22:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.83%E -4.37%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.37%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-30 23:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.96%EV -9.83%E -4.37%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -13.46%E -4.67%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.82%EV -6.79%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-30 23:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.25%EV -9.83%E -4.37%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -18.87%E -6.99%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -13.96%E -4.85%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-30 23:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.83%E -5.38%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -0.843%E -0.255%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -2.90%E -0.893%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-30 22:56 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.83%E -5.38%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -0.843%E -0.255%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -2.90%E -0.893%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.83%E -5.38%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -0.843%E -0.255%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -2.90%E -0.893%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.83%E -5.38%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -0.843%E -0.255%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -2.90%E -0.893%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.83%E -5.38%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -0.843%E -0.255%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -2.90%E -0.893%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.83%E -5.38%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -0.843%E -0.255%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -2.90%E -0.893%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.83%E -5.38%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -0.843%E -0.255%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -2.90%E -0.893%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.83%E -5.38%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -0.843%E -0.255%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -2.90%E -0.893%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-30 22:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.74%EV -13.44%E -6.22%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -2.35%E -0.722%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -4.40%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.77%EV -14.24%E -6.65%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -2.35%E -0.722%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.06%EV -5.89%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -15.04%E -7.09%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -5.89%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -15.84%E -7.54%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -15.84%E -7.54%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -15.84%E -7.54%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-30 23:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12% | 0.6% | 2026-05-30 23:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12% | 0.6% | 2026-05-30 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.33% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61% | 0.8% | 2026-05-30 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.33% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61% | 0.8% | 2026-05-30 23:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.59% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.21% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.21% | 1.9% | 2026-05-30 23:20 |