Language:English
Sport Recife v Athletic Club (MG)
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sport Recife (Local)
Prediction 48.35%2.07fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -6.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.30%48.58%48.22%51.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.871.911.9558.14%53.55%52.36%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)
Prediction 21.85%4.58fair odd
EV +2.69%
Edge +0.573%
Kelly +0.728%
Growth +0.020%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.88%21.76%21.96%23.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.234.204.7025.97%23.64%23.81%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.80%3.36fair odd
EV +1.32%
Edge +0.389%
Kelly +0.551%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.52%29.66%29.82%31.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.143.103.4034.48%31.88%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport Recife (Local): 48.35%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 21.85%; Draw: 29.80%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.58. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.69%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.97%EV -9.59%E -5.13%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV +2.69%E +0.573%K +0.728%G +0.020% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-10 23:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.44%EV -6.20%E -3.20%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.67%EV +1.38%E +0.298%K +0.380%G +0.005% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.88%EV -4.34%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-10 23:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.89%EV -10.07%E -5.41%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV +0.509%E +0.111%K +0.141%G +0.001% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.93%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-10 23:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -12.49%E -6.90%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -1.68%E -0.372%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV +1.32%E +0.389%K +0.551%G +0.007% | 6.9% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -12.49%E -6.90%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -1.68%E -0.372%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV +1.32%E +0.389%K +0.551%G +0.007% | 6.9% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -12.49%E -6.90%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -1.68%E -0.372%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV +1.32%E +0.389%K +0.551%G +0.007% | 6.9% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -12.49%E -6.90%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -1.68%E -0.372%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV +1.32%E +0.389%K +0.551%G +0.007% | 6.9% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -12.49%E -6.90%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -1.68%E -0.372%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV +1.32%E +0.389%K +0.551%G +0.007% | 6.9% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -12.49%E -6.90%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -1.68%E -0.372%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV +1.32%E +0.389%K +0.551%G +0.007% | 6.9% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -12.49%E -6.90%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -1.68%E -0.372%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV +1.32%E +0.389%K +0.551%G +0.007% | 6.9% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -11.52%E -6.30%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -1.68%E -0.372%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.25%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-10 23:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.52%EV -6.69%E -3.46%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -3.86%E -0.877%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.52%EV -6.69%E -3.46%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -3.86%E -0.877%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.52%EV -6.69%E -3.46%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -3.86%E -0.877%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.26%EV -12.97%E -7.21%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -3.86%E -0.877%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.61%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.44%EV -5.39%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.25%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -6.05%E -1.41%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -6.13%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.80%EV -6.69%E -3.46%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -6.05%E -1.41%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-10 23:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.19%EV -13.94%E -7.83%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.19%EV -6.05%E -1.41%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -1.66%E -0.502%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-10 23:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.06%EV -15.39%E -8.79%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.02%EV -7.14%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -8.23%E -1.96%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.07%EV -15.87%E -9.12%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -8.23%E -1.96%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.77%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.07%EV -15.87%E -9.12%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -8.23%E -1.96%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.77%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.03%EV -7.17%E -3.73%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -9.32%E -2.25%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.03%EV -7.17%E -3.73%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -9.32%E -2.25%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -10.42%E -2.54%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-10 23:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.54%EV -6.69%E -3.46%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -10.42%E -2.54%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -9.11%E -2.99%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%EV -16.84%E -9.79%K -23.39%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -10.42%E -2.54%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -6.13%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%EV -16.84%E -9.79%K -23.39%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -10.42%E -2.54%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -6.13%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%EV -16.84%E -9.79%K -23.39%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -10.42%E -2.54%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -6.13%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -12.60%E -3.15%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -9.59%E -5.13%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -12.60%E -3.15%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -12.60%E -3.15%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-06-10 23:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.30%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -12.60%E -3.15%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.13%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.30%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -12.60%E -3.15%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.13%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.30%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -12.60%E -3.15%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.13%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.30%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -12.60%E -3.15%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.13%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -11.52%E -6.30%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -12.60%E -3.15%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -14.79%E -3.79%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -14.79%E -3.79%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -14.79%E -3.79%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -14.79%E -3.79%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.37%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.49%EV -15.88%E -4.12%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.14%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.96% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43% | 1.1% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.96% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43% | 1.1% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.96% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43% | 1.1% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.75% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.95% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.30% | 1.6% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.21% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.50% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.28% | 1.6% | 2026-06-10 23:50 |