Language:English
São Bernardo v Grêmio Novorizontino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
São Bernardo (Local)
Prediction 35.25%2.84fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.465%
Kelly -0.723%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.44%35.35%35.26%38.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.662.652.8042.55%37.62%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)
Prediction 32.81%3.05fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.08%32.81%32.79%34.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.782.802.9238.46%36.03%35.71%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.94%3.13fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -0.952%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.56%31.84%31.95%32.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.872.883.0437.04%34.79%34.72%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: São Bernardo (Local): 35.25%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit): 32.81%; Draw: 31.94%. For São Bernardo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -1.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-31 13:46 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -3.06%E -1.11%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.14%EV -11.42%E -4.23%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -8.96%E -3.15%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.30%EV -3.77%E -1.38%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.00%EV -4.20%E -1.44%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.70%EV -2.89%E -0.952%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -4.83%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.91%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -6.73%E -2.30%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -4.83%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.91%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -6.73%E -2.30%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -4.83%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.91%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -6.73%E -2.30%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -4.83%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -11.42%E -4.23%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -8.96%E -3.15%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -4.83%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -11.42%E -4.23%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.71%EV -5.18%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.65%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.65%EV -8.64%E -3.02%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -6.50%E -2.28%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.77%E -1.96%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -4.17%E -1.39%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-31 13:58 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -6.50%E -2.28%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.97%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.86%EV -7.48%E -2.65%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.17%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -13.06%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.12%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -13.06%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.12%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -13.06%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.12%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.51%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.41%EV -5.84%E -2.04%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.23%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.73%EV -7.48%E -2.65%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.23%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.73%EV -7.48%E -2.65%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -8.35%E -3.21%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -5.77%E -1.96%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.20%EV -8.35%E -3.21%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -8.96%E -3.15%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -8.35%E -3.21%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -14.04%E -5.36%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -10.11%E -3.97%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.11%E -3.97%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -8.96%E -3.15%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -11.88%E -4.75%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -11.88%E -4.75%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-31 13:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.63%EV -11.88%E -4.75%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.30%EV -14.70%E -5.65%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.07%EV -13.76%E -5.09%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.36%EV -17.16%E -7.30%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -4.86%E -1.67%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -5.77%E -1.96%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.94% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00% | 0.8% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.68% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 1.0% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.79% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.82% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.39% | 1.2% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.85% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.96% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.18% | 1.8% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.53% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.82% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.65% | 2.0% | 2026-05-31 14:00 |