La escuela de los momios

São Bernardo v Grêmio Novorizontino

Inicio: 2026-05-31 14:02 UTC

Final: São Bernardo 1–1 Grêmio Novorizontino

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

40 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

São Bernardo (Local)

Predicción 35.25%2.84momio equitativo
EV -1.30%
Ventaja -0.465%
Kelly -0.723%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.44%35.35%35.26%38.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.352.662.652.8042.55%37.62%37.74%35.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Grêmio Novorizontino (Visitante)

Predicción 32.81%3.05momio equitativo
EV -4.20%
Ventaja -1.44%
Kelly -2.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.08%32.81%32.79%34.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.782.802.9238.46%36.03%35.71%34.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.94%3.13momio equitativo
EV -2.89%
Ventaja -0.952%
Kelly -1.42%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.04

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.56%31.84%31.95%32.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.702.872.883.0437.04%34.79%34.72%32.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (40 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-31 13:59
Unibet (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-31 14:00
Casumo2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-31 14:00
Unibet (NL)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-31 14:00
ATG (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-31 13:59
Svenska Spel2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-31 14:00
betPARX2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-31 14:00
BetRivers2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -1.30%E -0.465%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-31 13:46
Grosvenor2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -3.06%E -1.11%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.14%EV -11.42%E -4.23%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -8.96%E -3.15%K -4.85%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-31 14:00
Pinnacle2.73I 36.63%NM 35.30%EV -3.77%E -1.38%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.00%EV -4.20%E -1.44%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.70%EV -2.89%E -0.952%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-31 13:59
LowVig.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -4.83%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.91%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -6.73%E -2.30%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 13:59
BetOnline.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -4.83%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.91%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -6.73%E -2.30%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 13:59
BetUS2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -4.83%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.91%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -6.73%E -2.30%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 13:59
LeoVegas (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -4.83%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -11.42%E -4.23%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -8.96%E -3.15%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-31 14:00
TABtouch2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -4.83%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -11.42%E -4.23%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-31 14:00
1xBet2.69I 37.17%NM 34.71%EV -5.18%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.65%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.65%EV -8.64%E -3.02%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-31 13:59
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -6.50%E -2.28%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.77%E -1.96%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-31 14:00
Coolbet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -4.17%E -1.39%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-31 13:58
Unibet (UK)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -6.50%E -2.28%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-31 13:59
Marathon Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.97%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.86%EV -7.48%E -2.65%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.17%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-31 13:59
LiveScore Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -13.06%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.12%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-31 14:00
Virgin Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -13.06%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.12%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-31 14:00
LeoVegas2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -6.59%E -2.49%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.94%EV -13.06%E -4.93%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.12%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-31 13:59
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.51%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.41%EV -5.84%E -2.04%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-31 13:59
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.23%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.73%EV -7.48%E -2.65%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 14:00
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.23%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.73%EV -7.48%E -2.65%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 13:59
Bovada2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 13:59
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-31 13:59
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-31 14:00
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-31 13:59
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -7.65%E -2.92%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-31 13:59
PointsBet (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -8.35%E -3.21%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -5.77%E -1.96%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-31 13:59
Codere (IT)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.20%EV -8.35%E -3.21%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -8.96%E -3.15%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-31 13:59
betfred_uk2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -8.35%E -3.21%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -14.04%E -5.36%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-31 13:59
theScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -10.11%E -3.97%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -7.37%E -2.54%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-31 14:00
PlayUp2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.11%E -3.97%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -8.96%E -3.15%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-31 13:59
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -11.88%E -4.75%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.14%E -2.91%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -8.01%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-31 14:00
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -11.88%E -4.75%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.78%E -3.56%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-31 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.63%EV -11.88%E -4.75%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.30%EV -14.70%E -5.65%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.07%EV -13.76%E -5.09%K -8.09%G +0.000%15.5%2026-05-31 14:00
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.36%EV -17.16%E -7.30%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -4.86%E -1.67%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -5.77%E -1.96%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-31 14:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.76I 36.23%NM 35.94%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%0.8%2026-05-31 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.68%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%1.0%2026-05-31 14:00
Matchbook2.76I 36.23%NM 35.79%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.82%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.39%1.2%2026-05-31 14:00
Smarkets2.74I 36.50%NM 35.85%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.96%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.18%1.8%2026-05-31 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.76I 36.23%NM 35.53%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.65%2.0%2026-05-31 14:00