Language:English
São Bernardo v Ceará
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
São Bernardo (Local)
Prediction 41.49%2.41fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.72%41.44%41.50%43.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.212.212.3548.78%45.21%45.25%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ceará (Visit)
Prediction 26.44%3.78fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.300%
Kelly -0.410%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.37%26.56%26.36%29.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.473.503.7432.26%28.79%28.57%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.07%3.12fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.99
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.00%32.00%32.14%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.872.882.9936.36%34.81%34.72%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: São Bernardo (Local): 41.49%; Ceará (Visit): 26.44%; Draw: 32.07%. For Ceará (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.74, with an expected value of -1.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -2.50%E -1.06%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -18.04%E -5.82%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -8.59%E -3.01%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.45%EV -4.16%E -1.80%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.81%EV -4.30%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.73%EV -11.16%E -4.03%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-26 18:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.19%EV -4.58%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -5.38%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -4.58%E -1.99%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.38%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.05%EV -4.99%E -2.18%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.75%EV -1.12%E -0.300%K -0.410%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.20%EV -4.10%E -1.37%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-26 18:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 40.82%EV -5.82%E -2.56%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 26.78%EV -8.53%E -2.46%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.40%EV -8.27%E -2.89%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-26 18:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -6.65%E -2.96%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -8.59%E -3.01%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -6.65%E -2.96%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -8.59%E -3.01%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.65%E -2.96%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.65%E -2.96%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.65%E -2.96%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.91%EV -7.06%E -3.15%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.72%EV -3.50%E -0.959%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-26 18:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -7.48%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.38%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -7.48%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.38%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -7.48%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.38%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -7.48%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.38%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -7.48%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.38%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -7.48%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.38%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -7.48%E -3.35%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.38%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.46%EV -7.89%E -3.56%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -2.18%E -0.589%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.06%EV -5.70%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.46%EV -7.89%E -3.56%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -2.18%E -0.589%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.06%EV -5.70%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-26 18:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.72%E -3.97%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -7.63%E -2.65%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.05%EV -8.72%E -3.97%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-26 18:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -8.72%E -3.97%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -7.63%E -2.65%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -8.72%E -3.97%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -7.63%E -2.65%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -8.72%E -3.97%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -8.72%E -3.97%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -8.72%E -3.97%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-26 18:41 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -8.72%E -3.97%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-26 18:41 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -8.72%E -3.97%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-26 18:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -8.72%E -3.97%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -11.43%E -3.41%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.78%EV -8.59%E -3.01%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -8.72%E -3.97%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -15.40%E -4.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.63%E -2.65%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 41.92%EV -9.14%E -4.17%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.59%E -3.01%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 41.39%EV -10.38%E -4.81%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -11.43%E -3.41%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -10.80%E -5.02%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -10.80%E -5.02%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -10.80%E -5.02%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -7.63%E -2.65%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.45%EV -11.21%E -5.24%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.45%EV -11.21%E -5.24%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -12.76%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.19%E -3.64%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.50%EV -12.87%E -6.13%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.81%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.69%EV -11.80%E -4.29%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.50%EV -12.87%E -6.13%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.81%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.69%EV -11.80%E -4.29%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -14.95%E -7.29%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -2.18%E -0.589%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.64%EV -8.59%E -3.01%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.97% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.29% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.75% | 0.1% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.38% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51% | 0.8% | 2026-07-26 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.38% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51% | 0.8% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.38% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51% | 0.8% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.31% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.50% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.19% | 1.9% | 2026-07-26 18:50 |