The School of Odds

São Bernardo v Ceará

2026-07-26 19:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

São Bernardo (Local)

Prediction 37.82%2.64fair odd
EV -7.34%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -5.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.80%37.82%37.82%38.11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.322.402.452.4543%42%41%41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Ceará (Visit)

Prediction 32.42%3.08fair odd
EV -6.64%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -3.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.29%32.42%32.42%32.48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.702.822.882.8837%36%35%35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.76%3.36fair odd
EV -6.25%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.59%29.76%29.76%29.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.953.083.153.1534%33%32%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.34%E -3.00%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.36%EV -6.64%E -2.30%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -6.25%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:04
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.34%E -3.00%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.36%EV -6.64%E -2.30%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -6.25%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:05
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.34%E -3.00%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.36%EV -6.64%E -2.30%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -6.25%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:04
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.34%E -3.00%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.36%EV -6.64%E -2.30%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -6.25%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:04
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.34%E -3.00%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.36%EV -6.64%E -2.30%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -6.25%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:05
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.34%E -3.00%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.36%EV -6.64%E -2.30%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -6.25%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:05
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.34%E -3.00%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.36%EV -6.64%E -2.30%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -6.25%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 20:05
BetRivers2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -9.23%E -3.85%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -9.23%E -3.30%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -9.23%E -3.03%K -4.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-19 20:05
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -11.12%E -4.73%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.40%EV -10.85%E -3.95%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -10.72%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-19 20:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -11.12%E -4.73%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.40%EV -10.85%E -3.95%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -10.72%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-19 20:05
TABtouch2.33I 42.92%NM 38.11%EV -11.88%E -5.10%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.29%EV -10.85%E -3.95%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -10.72%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-19 20:20
Virgin Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 37.80%EV -12.26%E -5.28%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.48%EV -12.47%E -4.62%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.73%EV -12.21%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-19 20:05
LiveScore Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 37.80%EV -12.26%E -5.28%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.48%EV -12.47%E -4.62%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.73%EV -12.21%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-19 20:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.