The School of Odds

São Bernardo v Avai

2026-07-17 22:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

São Bernardo (Local)

Prediction 48.57%2.06fair odd
EV -7.71%
Edge -4.06%
Kelly -8.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.53%48.57%48.57%49.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.801.861.891.9056%54%53%53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Avai (Visit)

Prediction 23.90%4.18fair odd
EV -5.58%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.52%23.90%23.90%23.90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.703.853.953.9527%26%25%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.52%3.63fair odd
EV -6.42%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -2.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.32%27.52%27.52%27.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.153.313.403.4032%30%29%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.02%EV -7.71%E -4.06%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -5.58%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-10 22:59
Unibet (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.16%EV -8.20%E -4.34%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -5.58%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 23:00
Unibet (NL)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.16%EV -8.20%E -4.34%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -5.58%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 23:00
Casumo1.89I 52.91%NM 49.16%EV -8.20%E -4.34%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -5.58%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 22:59
Svenska Spel1.89I 52.91%NM 49.16%EV -8.20%E -4.34%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -5.58%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 22:59
betPARX1.89I 52.91%NM 49.16%EV -8.20%E -4.34%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -5.58%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 23:00
ATG (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.16%EV -8.20%E -4.34%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -5.58%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 22:59
BetRivers1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -9.17%E -4.90%K -10.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -9.17%E -2.41%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -9.17%E -2.78%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-10 22:50
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -11.11%E -6.07%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -10.36%E -2.76%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -10.55%E -3.24%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-10 22:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -11.11%E -6.07%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -10.36%E -2.76%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -11.92%E -3.73%K -5.42%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-10 22:59
TABtouch1.82I 54.95%NM 48.53%EV -11.60%E -6.37%K -14.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.87%EV -11.56%E -3.12%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.60%EV -11.92%E -3.73%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-10 22:59
LiveScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 48.59%EV -12.57%E -6.98%K -15.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.64%EV -11.56%E -3.12%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.77%EV -13.30%E -4.22%K -6.19%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-10 23:00
Virgin Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 48.59%EV -12.57%E -6.98%K -15.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.64%EV -11.56%E -3.12%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.77%EV -13.30%E -4.22%K -6.19%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-10 22:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.