La escuela de los momiosEspañol
São Bernardo v Avai
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
São Bernardo (Local)
Predicción 47.66%2.10momio equitativo
EV -4.21%
Ventaja -2.09%
Kelly -4.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.01
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.69%47.72%47.77%50.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.801.931.942.0155.56%51.71%51.55%49.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Avai (Visitante)
Predicción 23.69%4.22momio equitativo
EV -0.495%
Ventaja -0.118%
Kelly -0.155%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.52%23.60%23.67%25.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.603.873.904.2027.78%25.81%25.64%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 28.65%3.49momio equitativo
EV -4.02%
Ventaja -1.20%
Kelly -1.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.81%28.68%28.56%29.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.203.203.3532.26%31.23%31.25%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.83%EV -4.21%E -2.09%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 4.19I 23.87%NM 22.95%EV -0.732%E -0.175%K -0.230%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.22%EV -5.73%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-17 21:55 |
| DraftKings | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54%EV -4.69%E -2.34%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV -6.42%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -4.02%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-16 22:00 |
| 888sport | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -4.69%E -2.34%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-17 21:30 |
| William Hill | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -4.69%E -2.34%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-17 21:30 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -4.69%E -2.34%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-17 21:30 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -4.69%E -2.34%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-17 21:29 |
| Coolbet | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.30%EV -5.64%E -2.85%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.32%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-17 07:20 |
| PlayUp | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.69%EV -5.64%E -2.85%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -14.71%E -4.09%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-17 21:15 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.83%EV -6.59%E -3.36%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.86%E -0.699%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-17 21:29 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.83%EV -6.59%E -3.36%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.86%E -0.699%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-17 21:29 |
| SportsBet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.83%EV -6.59%E -3.36%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.86%E -0.699%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-17 21:24 |
| BetUS | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.83%EV -6.59%E -3.36%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.86%E -0.699%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-17 21:34 |
| FanDuel | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.07%E -3.63%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -2.86%E -0.699%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-17 21:29 |
| Unibet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -7.07%E -3.63%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -7.60%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-17 21:49 |
| NordicBet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -7.07%E -3.63%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.60%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-17 17:04 |
| Betsson | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -7.07%E -3.63%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.60%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-17 17:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -7.07%E -3.63%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.60%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-17 17:04 |
| LeoVegas | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.07%E -3.63%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-17 21:49 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -7.07%E -3.63%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -12.34%E -3.34%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-17 07:20 |
| 1xBet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.17%EV -7.55%E -3.89%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 23.42%EV -5.47%E -1.37%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.41%EV -5.73%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-17 21:49 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -7.55%E -3.89%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.60%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-17 21:49 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -7.55%E -3.89%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.60%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-17 21:49 |
| Casumo | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -7.55%E -3.89%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.60%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-17 21:49 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -7.55%E -3.89%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.60%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-17 21:49 |
| betPARX | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -7.55%E -3.89%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.60%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-17 21:49 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -7.55%E -3.89%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.60%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-17 21:49 |
| Bovada | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.60%EV -7.55%E -3.89%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -5.23%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.32%EV -9.75%E -3.09%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-17 21:54 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.17%EV -7.55%E -3.89%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.77%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -9.75%E -3.09%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-17 17:04 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.01%EV -8.02%E -4.16%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 23.40%EV -6.18%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.60%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-17 21:09 |
| theScore Bet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -8.98%E -4.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-17 07:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -8.98%E -4.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -7.60%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-17 21:45 |
| Paddy Power | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -8.98%E -4.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -9.97%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-17 21:24 |
| betfred_uk | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -8.98%E -4.70%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -14.71%E -4.09%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-17 07:20 |
| BetRivers | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.95%EV -9.93%E -5.25%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.17%EV -11.16%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-17 21:34 |
| Grosvenor | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.66%EV -10.41%E -5.54%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -11.16%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -9.75%E -3.09%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-07-17 21:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.64%EV -10.88%E -5.82%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.08%EV -12.34%E -3.34%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28%EV -9.75%E -3.09%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-17 21:49 |
| TABtouch | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -11.84%E -6.40%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%EV -12.34%E -3.34%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.46%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-07-17 21:49 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.67%EV -12.31%E -6.69%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -13.53%E -3.71%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-17 21:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.67%EV -12.31%E -6.69%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -13.53%E -3.71%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-17 21:49 |
| BoyleSports | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.12%EV -12.79%E -6.99%K -15.41%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -11.16%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.40%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-07-14 22:04 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -14.22%E -7.90%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -0.495%E -0.118%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-17 14:35 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.21% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21% | 0.7% | 2026-07-17 21:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.21% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21% | 0.7% | 2026-07-17 21:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.21% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21% | 0.7% | 2026-07-17 21:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.21% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21% | 0.7% | 2026-07-17 21:39 |
| Smarkets | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.21% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.92% | 1.7% | 2026-07-17 21:05 |