Language:English
Ponte Preta v Grêmio Novorizontino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ponte Preta (Local)
Prediction 22.36%4.47fair odd
EV +0.619%
Edge +0.138%
Kelly +0.177%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.76%22.36%22.36%24.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.144.204.5027.03%24.13%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)
Prediction 48.82%2.05fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -4.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.96
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.69%48.76%48.78%51.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.871.901.9658.14%53.49%52.63%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.82%3.47fair odd
EV -3.45%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.78%28.88%28.87%30.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.183.203.3535.71%31.41%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ponte Preta (Local): 22.36%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit): 48.82%; Draw: 28.82%. For Ponte Preta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.47. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.619%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV +0.619%E +0.138%K +0.177%G +0.001% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV +0.619%E +0.138%K +0.177%G +0.001% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-22 22:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV +0.619%E +0.138%K +0.177%G +0.001% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.619%E +0.138%K +0.177%G +0.001% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -11.15%E -6.13%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.45%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-22 22:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.619%E +0.138%K +0.177%G +0.001% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -11.15%E -6.13%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.45%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-22 22:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.619%E +0.138%K +0.177%G +0.001% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -11.15%E -6.13%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.45%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-22 22:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.619%E +0.138%K +0.177%G +0.001% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -11.15%E -6.13%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.45%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-22 22:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.619%E +0.138%K +0.177%G +0.001% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -11.15%E -6.13%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.45%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-22 22:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.619%E +0.138%K +0.177%G +0.001% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -11.15%E -6.13%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.45%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-22 22:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV +0.619%E +0.138%K +0.177%G +0.001% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -11.15%E -6.13%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.45%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-22 22:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.65%EV -0.722%E -0.163%K -0.210%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.04%EV -4.32%E -2.20%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.31%EV -5.46%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-22 22:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -3.85%E -0.896%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.84%EV -12.62%E -7.05%K -15.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.00%EV -6.33%E -1.95%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-06-22 22:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.28I 23.36%NM 21.87%EV -4.30%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.52%EV -7.73%E -4.09%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 28.62%EV -5.75%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-22 22:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -4.97%E -1.17%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.04%EV -7.73%E -4.09%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.15%EV -8.35%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-22 22:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.08%EV -4.97%E -1.17%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.91%EV -14.08%E -8.00%K -18.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-22 22:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -4.80%E -2.46%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.89%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.89%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-22 22:48 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.11%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.87%EV -7.25%E -3.81%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-22 22:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.95%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.78%EV -7.73%E -4.09%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -9.21%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -12.13%E -6.74%K -15.16%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-22 22:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -14.57%E -8.32%K -19.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-06-22 22:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.07%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.85%EV -15.06%E -8.65%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.09%EV -9.21%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-06-22 22:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.32%EV -7.21%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.74%EV -7.25%E -3.81%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.32%EV -7.21%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.74%EV -7.25%E -3.81%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-22 22:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -8.32%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.52%EV -7.73%E -4.09%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -9.21%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -8.32%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%EV -16.03%E -9.32%K -22.27%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -9.21%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-22 22:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -8.32%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%EV -16.03%E -9.32%K -22.27%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -9.21%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-22 22:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -8.32%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%EV -16.03%E -9.32%K -22.27%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -9.21%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-22 22:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.37%EV -5.78%E -3.00%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.89%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-22 22:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -4.80%E -2.46%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -13.53%E -4.51%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-22 22:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -4.80%E -2.46%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -13.53%E -4.51%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-22 22:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -4.80%E -2.46%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -13.53%E -4.51%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -4.80%E -2.46%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -13.53%E -4.51%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.89%EV -7.25%E -3.81%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-06-22 22:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -12.80%E -3.28%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.14%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -6.33%E -1.95%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-06-22 22:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -12.80%E -3.28%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.45%EV -8.71%E -4.66%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.31%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.03%E -3.96%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -16.15%E -4.31%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.61%EV -7.25%E -3.81%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-22 22:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.79%EV -16.15%E -4.31%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.69%EV -10.66%E -5.83%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.52%EV -19.30%E -6.89%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -17.27%E -4.67%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.85%EV -5.78%E -3.00%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -9.21%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -17.27%E -4.67%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-22 22:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -17.27%E -4.67%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -17.27%E -4.67%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -17.27%E -4.67%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -10.65%E -3.44%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-22 22:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.25% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-06-22 22:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.25% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-06-22 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.25% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-06-22 22:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.25% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-06-22 22:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.49% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53% | 1.1% | 2026-06-22 22:50 |