Language:English
Operario PR v Londrina
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Operario PR (Local)
Prediction 52.34%1.91fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.86
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.43%52.34%52.44%55.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.781.781.8661.73%56.06%56.18%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Londrina (Visit)
Prediction 19.00%5.26fair odd
EV +3.55%
Edge +0.651%
Kelly +0.798%
Growth +0.028%
assuming max odds 5.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.01%19.04%18.92%21.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.694.605.4523.81%21.32%21.74%18.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.66%3.49fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.32%28.62%28.64%30.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.233.203.3534.72%30.97%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Operario PR (Local): 52.34%; Londrina (Visit): 19.00%; Draw: 28.66%. For Londrina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.26. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.55%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.42%EV -4.23%E -2.31%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.60%EV +3.55%E +0.651%K +0.798%G +0.028% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-03 18:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.11%EV -8.94%E -5.14%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.27%EV +1.65%E +0.308%K +0.379%G +0.006% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.62%EV -10.57%E -3.39%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-03 18:52 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.85%EV -6.84%E -3.84%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV +0.700%E +0.132%K +0.163%G +0.001% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.85%EV -6.84%E -3.84%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV +0.700%E +0.132%K +0.163%G +0.001% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.66%EV -15.22%E -9.39%K -24.54%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.01%EV +0.700%E +0.132%K +0.163%G +0.001% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -8.94%E -5.14%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 5.23I 19.12%NM 17.87%EV -0.630%E -0.120%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.41%EV -5.69%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-03 18:51 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.81%EV -7.37%E -4.16%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -1.20%E -0.231%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-03 18:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.21%EV -7.89%E -4.48%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.67%EV -1.20%E -0.231%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -12.57%E -4.12%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -5.80%E -3.22%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -5.00%E -1.000%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -8.41%E -4.81%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -5.00%E -1.000%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.95%EV -8.41%E -4.81%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -5.00%E -1.000%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -6.84%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-03 18:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.05%EV -6.84%E -3.84%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -5.00%E -1.000%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.52%EV -9.46%E -5.47%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -5.00%E -1.000%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.31%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-03 18:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.42%EV -8.41%E -4.81%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.91%EV -7.85%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 18:51 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.42%EV -8.41%E -4.81%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.91%EV -7.85%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -6.84%E -3.84%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -8.80%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -6.84%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.02%EV -9.46%E -5.47%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -9.75%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.80%E -3.22%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.60%E -2.74%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.80%E -3.22%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.60%E -2.74%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.80%E -3.22%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.60%E -2.74%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 18:56 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.80%E -3.22%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.60%E -2.74%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.84%EV -11.03%E -6.49%K -15.76%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.53%EV -12.60%E -2.74%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -6.84%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.13%EV -4.75%E -2.61%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -14.50%E -3.22%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-03 18:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.80%E -3.22%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -14.50%E -3.22%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.84%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -5.80%E -3.22%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -14.50%E -3.22%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.56%EV -2.66%E -1.43%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -16.40%E -3.73%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -3.97%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -3.18%E -1.72%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -16.40%E -3.73%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.97%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -3.18%E -1.72%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -16.40%E -3.73%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.97%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -3.18%E -1.72%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -16.40%E -3.73%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.97%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -3.18%E -1.72%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -16.40%E -3.73%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.97%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-03 18:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -3.18%E -1.72%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -16.40%E -3.73%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.97%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -3.18%E -1.72%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -16.40%E -3.73%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.97%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -3.18%E -1.72%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -16.40%E -3.73%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.97%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.54%EV -9.46%E -5.47%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.59%EV -17.73%E -4.09%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 50.88%EV -12.60%E -7.55%K -18.81%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 19.62%EV -17.73%E -4.09%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.50%EV -17.45%E -6.06%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 17.7% | 2026-05-03 18:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.64%EV -4.75%E -2.61%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -18.30%E -4.26%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.43%EV -5.27%E -2.91%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.48%EV -19.25%E -4.53%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.84%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.57%EV -5.80%E -3.22%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -19.25%E -4.53%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -6.84%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.50%EV -6.84%E -3.84%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -20.20%E -4.81%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.50%EV -6.84%E -3.84%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -20.20%E -4.81%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-03 18:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.50%EV -6.84%E -3.84%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -20.20%E -4.81%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -8.27%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-03 18:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.57% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73% | 0.9% | 2026-05-03 18:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.57% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73% | 0.9% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.35% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.62% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03% | 1.3% | 2026-05-03 18:56 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.48% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.57% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94% | 1.6% | 2026-05-03 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.18% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.89% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94% | 1.6% | 2026-05-03 18:54 |