Language:English
Nautico PE v Ceará
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nautico PE (Local)
Prediction 40.76%2.45fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.66%40.79%40.74%43.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.222.252.3549.02%44.98%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ceará (Visit)
Prediction 28.29%3.54fair odd
EV -1.000%
Edge -0.286%
Kelly -0.400%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.57%28.31%28.20%30.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.303.303.5033.33%30.32%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.95%3.23fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.00%30.90%31.06%31.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.882.982.953.1034.72%33.55%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nautico PE (Local): 40.76%; Ceará (Visit): 28.29%; Draw: 30.95%. For Ceará (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.000%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.96%EV -4.21%E -1.79%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.98%EV -2.70%E -0.784%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%EV -4.04%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-19 00:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.72%EV -5.44%E -2.34%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.49%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 00:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.72%EV -5.44%E -2.34%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.49%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 00:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.59%E -1.83%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-19 00:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -9.49%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.04%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-19 00:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-19 00:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -8.69%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 00:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-19 00:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -8.69%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-19 00:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-19 00:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-19 00:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-19 00:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.49%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-19 00:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.48%EV -6.66%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.43%EV -8.69%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-19 00:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.66%EV -7.07%E -3.10%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -12.31%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.18%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-19 00:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 40.80%EV -7.88%E -3.49%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.26%EV -8.69%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-19 00:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.29%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-19 00:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.29%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.49%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-19 00:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.29%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.49%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-19 00:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.29%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.69%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-19 00:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.29%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.69%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-19 00:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.29%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.69%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-19 00:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -8.29%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -15.14%E -5.05%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-19 00:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -8.29%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -12.31%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.85%E -3.77%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-19 00:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -10.33%E -4.69%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -10.85%E -3.77%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-19 00:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -10.33%E -4.69%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -10.85%E -3.77%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-19 00:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -10.33%E -4.69%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.31%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-19 00:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -10.33%E -4.69%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -15.14%E -5.05%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-19 00:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.22%EV -11.96%E -5.54%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -1.000%E -0.286%K -0.400%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.04%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 23:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.22%EV -11.96%E -5.54%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -1.000%E -0.286%K -0.400%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.04%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 23:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.22%EV -11.96%E -5.54%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -1.000%E -0.286%K -0.400%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.04%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 23:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.22%EV -11.96%E -5.54%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -1.000%E -0.286%K -0.400%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.04%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 23:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.22%EV -11.96%E -5.54%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -1.000%E -0.286%K -0.400%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.04%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 23:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.22%EV -11.96%E -5.54%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -1.000%E -0.286%K -0.400%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.04%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 23:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.22%EV -11.96%E -5.54%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -1.000%E -0.286%K -0.400%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.04%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 23:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.91%EV -13.59%E -6.41%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-17 20:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.99%EV -15.22%E -7.32%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -8.69%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-17 20:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.11%EV -15.63%E -7.55%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.64%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.25%EV -8.69%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-17 21:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 42.83%EV -16.03%E -7.78%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.43%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-18 23:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 42.98%EV -16.85%E -8.26%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.57%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.45%EV -10.85%E -3.77%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-17 20:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 42.98%EV -16.85%E -8.26%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.57%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.45%EV -10.85%E -3.77%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-17 20:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59% | 0.5% | 2026-08-19 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59% | 0.5% | 2026-08-19 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59% | 0.5% | 2026-08-19 00:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05% | 0.6% | 2026-08-19 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.46% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34% | 1.3% | 2026-08-19 00:25 |