Language:English
Nautico PE v Botafogo-SP
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nautico PE (Local)
Prediction 47.88%2.09fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -4.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.99
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.40%47.82%47.85%49.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.911.911.9954.95%52.37%52.36%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Botafogo-SP (Visit)
Prediction 23.00%4.35fair odd
EV +4.67%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.061%
assuming max odds 4.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.55%22.97%23.11%24.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.984.004.5527.03%25.14%25.00%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.11%3.43fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -0.737%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.22%29.21%29.05%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.123.3533.33%31.63%32.05%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nautico PE (Local): 47.88%; Botafogo-SP (Visit): 23.00%; Draw: 29.11%. For Botafogo-SP (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.35. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.67%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -9.03%E -4.75%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.55%EV +4.67%E +1.03%K +1.32%G +0.061% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.25%EV -10.04%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 22:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.73%EV -5.67%E -2.88%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.17%EV -0.390%E -0.090%K -0.117%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.09%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-03 22:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -1.08%E -0.251%K -0.327%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -2.47%E -0.737%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 22:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.68%EV -7.59%E -3.93%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -2.23%E -0.525%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -12.66%E -4.22%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 22:58 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.26%EV -4.72%E -2.37%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -3.38%E -0.805%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 22:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.38%E -0.805%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-03 22:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -3.38%E -0.805%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-03 22:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -3.38%E -0.805%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -3.38%E -0.805%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.69%EV -9.16%E -2.94%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-03 22:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -9.98%E -5.31%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -5.68%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-03 22:58 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-03 22:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.37%EV -7.59%E -3.93%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-03 22:38 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.40%EV -5.20%E -2.62%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -12.66%E -4.22%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-03 22:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -12.66%E -4.22%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-03 22:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-03 22:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -9.13%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-03 22:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.88%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -9.13%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -11.20%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.88%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -9.13%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -11.20%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.28%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-03 22:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.28%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-03 22:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.32%EV -9.98%E -5.31%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -10.28%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.10%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -10.28%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.83%EV -9.16%E -2.94%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-03 22:53 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.10%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -10.28%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.83%EV -9.16%E -2.94%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-03 22:53 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.05%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -11.43%E -2.97%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -8.29%E -2.63%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.36%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.24%EV -11.43%E -2.97%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.40%EV -8.29%E -2.63%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.37%EV -7.59%E -3.93%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.06%EV -12.58%E -3.31%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-03 22:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.21%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -12.58%E -3.31%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.32%EV -8.29%E -2.63%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -12.38%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -12.58%E -3.31%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.18%EV -9.03%E -4.75%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -13.73%E -3.66%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-03 22:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.03%EV -12.86%E -7.06%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.31%EV -13.73%E -3.66%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -11.20%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.03%EV -12.86%E -7.06%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.31%EV -13.73%E -3.66%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -11.20%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.88%E -4.02%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.88%E -4.02%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.88%E -4.02%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.88%E -4.02%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.95% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08% | 1.1% | 2026-09-03 22:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.95% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08% | 1.1% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.95% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08% | 1.1% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.95% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08% | 1.1% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.74% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.39% | 1.6% | 2026-09-03 22:35 |