Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Nautico PE v Botafogo-SP

Início: 2026-09-03 23:00 UTC

Final: Nautico PE 1–0 Botafogo-SP

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

43 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Nautico PE (Local)

Previsão 47.88%2.09odd justa
EV -4.72%
Vantagem -2.37%
Kelly -4.76%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.99

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.40%47.82%47.85%49.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.821.911.911.9954.95%52.37%52.36%50.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Botafogo-SP (Visitante)

Previsão 23.00%4.35odd justa
EV +4.67%
Vantagem +1.03%
Kelly +1.32%
Crescimento +0.061%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.55

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.55%22.97%23.11%24.21%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.703.984.004.5527.03%25.14%25.00%21.98%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.11%3.43odd justa
EV -2.47%
Vantagem -0.737%
Kelly -1.05%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.22%29.21%29.05%30.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.163.123.3533.33%31.63%32.05%29.85%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Nautico PE (Local): 47.88%; Botafogo-SP (Visitante): 23.00%; Empate: 29.11%. Para Botafogo-SP (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.35. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.55, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.67%.

Odds das casas de apostas (43 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -9.03%E -4.75%K -10.03%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.55%EV +4.67%E +1.03%K +1.32%G +0.061%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.25%EV -10.04%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 22:55
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.73%EV -5.67%E -2.88%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.17%EV -0.390%E -0.090%K -0.117%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.09%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 22:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -1.08%E -0.251%K -0.327%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -2.47%E -0.737%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 22:55
Bovada🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.68%EV -7.59%E -3.93%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -2.23%E -0.525%K -0.686%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -12.66%E -4.22%K -6.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 22:58
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.26%EV -4.72%E -2.37%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -3.38%E -0.805%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 22:59
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.38%E -0.805%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 22:50
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -3.38%E -0.805%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 22:59
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -3.38%E -0.805%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 22:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -3.38%E -0.805%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.69%EV -9.16%E -2.94%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 22:59
BetUS🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -9.98%E -5.31%K -11.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -5.68%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 22:58
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 22:30
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.37%EV -7.59%E -3.93%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 22:38
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 22:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 22:25
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 22:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 22:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 22:25
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.07%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.40%EV -5.20%E -2.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -12.66%E -4.22%K -6.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 22:40
PlayUp🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -12.66%E -4.22%K -6.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 22:55
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 22:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -7.98%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 22:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -9.13%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 22:45
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.88%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -9.13%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -11.20%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 22:35
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.88%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -9.13%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -11.20%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 22:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.28%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 22:49
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.28%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 22:49
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.32%EV -9.98%E -5.31%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -10.28%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-03 22:25
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.10%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -10.28%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.83%EV -9.16%E -2.94%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-03 22:53
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.10%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -10.28%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.83%EV -9.16%E -2.94%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-03 22:53
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.05%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -11.43%E -2.97%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -8.29%E -2.63%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 22:35
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.36%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.24%EV -11.43%E -2.97%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.40%EV -8.29%E -2.63%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-03 22:25
BetMGM🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.37%EV -7.59%E -3.93%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.06%EV -12.58%E -3.31%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 22:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.21%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -12.58%E -3.31%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.32%EV -8.29%E -2.63%K -3.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-03 22:25
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -12.38%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -12.58%E -3.31%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-03 22:25
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.18%EV -9.03%E -4.75%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -13.73%E -3.66%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 22:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.03%EV -12.86%E -7.06%K -15.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.31%EV -13.73%E -3.66%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -11.20%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-03 22:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.03%EV -12.86%E -7.06%K -15.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.31%EV -13.73%E -3.66%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -11.20%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-03 22:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.88%E -4.02%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 22:35
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.88%E -4.02%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 22:35
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.88%E -4.02%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 22:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.55%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.88%E -4.02%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.75%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 22:35
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.95%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-09-03 22:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.95%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-09-03 22:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.95%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-09-03 22:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.95%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-09-03 22:35
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.74%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.39%1.6%2026-09-03 22:35