The School of Odds
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Londrina v Sport Recife

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Londrina (Local)

Prediction 40.22%2.49fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.63%40.33%40.19%42.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.302.302.4247.62%43.54%43.48%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sport Recife (Visit)

Prediction 29.04%3.44fair odd
EV +0.191%
Edge +0.055%
Kelly +0.078%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.51%28.89%29.06%30.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.213.203.4533.33%31.13%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.74%3.25fair odd
EV -4.70%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.61%30.78%30.75%32.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.013.003.1035.09%33.23%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Londrina (Local): 40.22%; Sport Recife (Visit): 29.04%; Draw: 30.74%. For Sport Recife (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.191%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.26%EV -3.88%E -1.62%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.89%EV +0.191%E +0.055%K +0.078%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.86%EV -7.16%E -2.37%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-04 23:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.71%EV -2.67%E -1.10%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.26%EV -1.26%E -0.371%K -0.525%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.03%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-04 22:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.71%EV -2.67%E -1.10%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.26%EV -1.26%E -0.371%K -0.525%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.03%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-04 22:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -15.54%E -7.40%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -1.26%E -0.371%K -0.525%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -9.31%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 22:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -5.49%E -2.34%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 22:40
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 20:09
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.01%EV -6.29%E -2.70%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.60%EV -5.33%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.39%EV -8.70%E -2.93%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 20:14
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -5.62%E -1.73%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 23:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.15%EV -7.10%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.62%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.23%EV -8.70%E -2.93%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 20:14
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 22:40
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 20:30
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.97%EV -9.51%E -4.23%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 23:00
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.98%EV -10.31%E -4.63%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.46%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.98%EV -10.31%E -4.63%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.46%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 23:00
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -6.70%E -2.89%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 17:00
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -6.70%E -2.89%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 17:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-02 17:00
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -12.39%E -4.35%K -6.70%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 20:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -11.52%E -5.24%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.51%EV -9.31%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-02 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -11.52%E -5.24%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.51%EV -9.31%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-02 18:45
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -11.52%E -5.24%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.51%EV -9.31%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-02 18:45
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 22:40
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 22:43
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.28%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 22:00
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.28%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 22:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.28%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 22:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.28%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 22:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.51%E -4.23%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 22:40
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.51%E -4.23%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.88%E -4.29%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-04 23:09
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.52%E -5.24%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.88%E -4.29%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-04 22:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.98%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.77%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.25%0.0%2026-04-04 23:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%1.4%2026-04-04 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%1.4%2026-04-04 22:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%1.4%2026-04-04 22:50
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.60%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.45%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.95%2.6%2026-04-04 22:39