L’École des cotes

Londrina v Sport Recife

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-04 23:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

37 opérateurs (14 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Londrina (Local)

Prévision 40.22%2.49cote équitable
EV -2.67%
Avantage -1.10%
Kelly -1.88%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.42

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.63%40.33%40.19%42.93%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.102.302.302.4247.62%43.54%43.48%41.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Sport Recife (Visiteur)

Prévision 29.04%3.44cote équitable
EV +0.191%
Avantage +0.055%
Kelly +0.078%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.45

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.51%28.89%29.06%30.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.213.203.4533.33%31.13%31.25%28.99%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 30.74%3.25cote équitable
EV -4.70%
Avantage -1.52%
Kelly -2.24%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.61%30.78%30.75%32.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.853.013.003.1035.09%33.23%33.33%32.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (37 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.39I 41.84%NM 40.26%EV -3.88%E -1.62%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.89%EV +0.191%E +0.055%K +0.078%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.86%EV -7.16%E -2.37%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-04 23:25
BetOnline.ag2.42I 41.32%NM 39.71%EV -2.67%E -1.10%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.26%EV -1.26%E -0.371%K -0.525%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.03%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-04 22:19
LowVig.ag2.42I 41.32%NM 39.71%EV -2.67%E -1.10%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.26%EV -1.26%E -0.371%K -0.525%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.03%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-04 22:19
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -15.54%E -7.40%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -1.26%E -0.371%K -0.525%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -9.31%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 22:25
Unibet (NL)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
Casumo2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
Unibet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
Unibet (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
Svenska Spel2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
betPARX2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
ATG (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:00
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -5.49%E -2.34%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 22:40
BetUS2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -4.17%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 20:09
1xBet2.33I 42.92%NM 40.01%EV -6.29%E -2.70%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.60%EV -5.33%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.39%EV -8.70%E -2.93%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 20:14
BetRivers2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -5.62%E -1.73%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 23:00
Marathon Bet2.31I 43.29%NM 40.15%EV -7.10%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.62%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.23%EV -8.70%E -2.93%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 20:14
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 22:40
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 20:30
Grosvenor2.25I 44.44%NM 40.97%EV -9.51%E -4.23%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 23:00
TABtouch2.23I 44.84%NM 40.98%EV -10.31%E -4.63%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.46%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 40.98%EV -10.31%E -4.63%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -7.07%E -2.21%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.46%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 23:00
Betsson2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -6.70%E -2.89%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 17:00
NordicBet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -6.70%E -2.89%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 17:00
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-02 17:00
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -12.39%E -4.35%K -6.70%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 20:09
Virgin Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -11.52%E -5.24%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.51%EV -9.31%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-02 18:45
LiveScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -11.52%E -5.24%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.51%EV -9.31%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-02 18:45
LeoVegas2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -11.52%E -5.24%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -8.52%E -2.71%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.51%EV -9.31%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-02 18:45
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 22:40
FanDuel2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.50%E -3.26%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 22:43
888sport2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.28%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 22:00
William Hill2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.28%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 22:00
888sport (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.28%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 22:00
Mr Green (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.28%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 22:00
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.51%E -4.23%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.97%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 22:40
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.51%E -4.23%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.88%E -4.29%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-04 23:09
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.52%E -5.24%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.88%E -4.29%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-04 22:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.44I 40.98%NM 40.98%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.77%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.25%0.0%2026-04-04 23:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%1.4%2026-04-04 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%1.4%2026-04-04 22:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%1.4%2026-04-04 22:50
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 40.60%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.45%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.95%2.6%2026-04-04 22:39