The School of Odds

Londrina v Grêmio Novorizontino

2026-07-26 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Londrina (Local)

Prediction 32.47%3.08fair odd
EV -5.83%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -3.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.13%32.47%32.47%32.47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.702.832.902.9037%35%34%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)

Prediction 38.20%2.62fair odd
EV -7.17%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -5.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.20%38.20%38.20%38.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.282.382.432.4344%42%41%41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.33%3.41fair odd
EV -6.15%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.18%29.33%29.33%29.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.123.203.2033%32%31%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.50%EV -7.17%E -2.95%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-19 22:30
Unibet (NL)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.50%EV -7.17%E -2.95%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-19 22:30
Unibet (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.50%EV -7.17%E -2.95%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-19 22:30
Casumo2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.50%EV -7.17%E -2.95%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-19 22:30
ATG (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.50%EV -7.17%E -2.95%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-19 22:30
Svenska Spel2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.50%EV -7.17%E -2.95%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-19 22:30
betPARX2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.50%EV -7.17%E -2.95%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-19 22:30
BetRivers2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.08%E -3.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -9.08%E -3.82%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-19 22:29
Grosvenor2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -10.71%E -3.89%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.30%EV -10.99%E -4.72%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.26%EV -10.55%E -3.46%K -5.15%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-19 22:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 32.39%EV -10.71%E -3.89%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.40%EV -11.37%E -4.90%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.21%EV -10.55%E -3.46%K -5.15%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-19 22:30
TABtouch2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -10.71%E -3.89%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -12.14%E -5.28%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-19 22:30
Virgin Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 32.42%EV -12.33%E -4.57%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.40%EV -12.90%E -5.66%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.18%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-19 21:59
LiveScore Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 32.42%EV -12.33%E -4.57%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.40%EV -12.90%E -5.66%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.18%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-19 21:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.