Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juventude v Cuiabá

Kickoff: 2026-07-17 22:00 UTC

Final: Juventude 2–0 Cuiabá

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juventude (Local)

Prediction 45.09%2.22fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -3.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.13%45.03%45.04%46.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.052.1251.28%48.99%48.78%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cuiabá (Visit)

Prediction 21.87%4.57fair odd
EV +4.52%
Edge +0.946%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.054%

assuming max odds 4.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.10%21.77%21.98%23.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.134.004.7826.67%24.22%25.00%20.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.05%3.03fair odd
EV -4.83%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.27%33.20%32.98%34.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.662.772.752.8837.59%36.10%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle2.12I 47.17%NM 45.33%EV -4.41%E -2.08%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 20.10%EV +4.52%E +0.946%K +1.20%G +0.054%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.57%EV -8.13%E -2.93%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-17 21:55
BetOnline.ag2.08I 48.08%NM 45.22%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV +0.586%E +0.127%K +0.163%G +0.001%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.33%EV -9.46%E -3.45%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-17 21:54
LowVig.ag2.08I 48.08%NM 45.22%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV +0.586%E +0.127%K +0.163%G +0.001%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.33%EV -9.46%E -3.45%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-17 21:54
Bovada2.05I 48.78%NM 45.02%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.28%EV -0.507%E -0.111%K -0.143%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.70%EV -12.10%E -4.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-17 21:54
BetUS2.05I 48.78%NM 45.02%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.28%EV -0.507%E -0.111%K -0.143%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.70%EV -12.10%E -4.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-17 21:54
SportsBet2.03I 49.26%NM 45.95%EV -8.47%E -4.17%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -1.60%E -0.356%K -0.457%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.47%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-17 21:40
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 45.43%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -1.60%E -0.356%K -0.457%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.87%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 21:34
Marathon Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.03%EV -7.12%E -3.46%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -1.60%E -0.356%K -0.457%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -10.78%E -3.99%K -6.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-17 21:45
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 46.32%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -1.60%E -0.356%K -0.457%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -7.47%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-17 21:34
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 44.90%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.79%E -0.861%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -7.47%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-17 21:34
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 46.03%EV -12.08%E -6.19%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.73%EV -5.32%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.24%EV -10.78%E -3.99%K -6.34%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-17 21:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.03%EV -12.08%E -6.19%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.73%EV -5.32%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.24%EV -10.78%E -3.99%K -6.34%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-17 21:49
Betsson2.05I 48.78%NM 45.26%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -7.07%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.90%EV -6.81%E -2.42%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-17 21:35
NordicBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.26%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -7.07%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.90%EV -6.81%E -2.42%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-17 21:34
Coolbet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.94%EV -6.22%E -2.99%K -5.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -8.16%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.80%EV -5.82%E -2.04%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 21:39
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.16%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -7.47%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-17 21:34
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.16%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -7.47%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-17 21:39
Codere (IT)2.03I 49.26%NM 45.28%EV -8.47%E -4.17%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.16%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.47%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-17 21:40
LeoVegas2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -8.16%E -1.94%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-17 21:35
Unibet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.36%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -4.83%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 21:44
Unibet (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.36%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -4.83%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 21:45
Unibet (NL)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.36%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -4.83%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 21:44
Casumo2.10I 47.62%NM 44.36%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -4.83%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 21:44
betPARX2.10I 47.62%NM 44.36%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -4.83%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 21:44
Svenska Spel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.36%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -4.83%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 21:44
ATG (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.36%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.35%EV -4.83%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 21:44
PointsBet (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.55%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.47%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-17 21:39
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-17 21:49
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-17 21:49
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-17 21:49
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-17 21:49
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-17 21:39
PlayUp2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-17 21:40
betfred_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-17 21:39
betano_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-17 21:49
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-17 21:49
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 45.53%EV -12.08%E -6.19%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -12.53%E -3.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.28%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-17 14:34
BetRivers2.06I 48.54%NM 44.17%EV -7.12%E -3.46%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.33%EV -14.72%E -3.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -7.47%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-17 21:44
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.37%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.76%EV -14.72%E -3.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.87%EV -10.78%E -3.99%K -6.34%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-17 21:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.37%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.76%EV -14.72%E -3.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.87%EV -10.78%E -3.99%K -6.34%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-17 21:39
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 44.37%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.76%EV -14.72%E -3.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.87%EV -10.78%E -3.99%K -6.34%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-17 21:39
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 44.37%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.76%EV -14.72%E -3.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.87%EV -10.78%E -3.99%K -6.34%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-17 21:39
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 44.13%EV -8.92%E -4.42%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -16.91%E -4.45%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.41%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-17 21:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 44.13%EV -8.92%E -4.42%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -16.91%E -4.45%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.41%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-17 21:44
TABtouch2.00I 50.00%NM 44.37%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -16.91%E -4.45%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.27%EV -9.13%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-17 21:24
LiveScore Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 44.22%EV -10.73%E -5.42%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.35%EV -18.00%E -4.80%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.43%EV -10.78%E -3.99%K -6.34%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-17 21:44
Virgin Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 44.22%EV -10.73%E -5.42%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.35%EV -18.00%E -4.80%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.43%EV -10.78%E -3.99%K -6.34%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-17 21:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 46.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-07-17 21:34
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 46.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-07-17 21:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-07-17 21:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-07-17 21:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-07-17 21:35