La escuela de los momios

Goiás v Grêmio Novorizontino

Inicio: 2026-06-10 23:00 UTC

Final: Goiás 0–4 Grêmio Novorizontino

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Goiás (Local)

Predicción 41.13%2.43momio equitativo
EV -3.34%
Ventaja -1.42%
Kelly -2.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.78%41.21%41.14%43.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.052.252.252.3548.78%44.53%44.44%42.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Grêmio Novorizontino (Visitante)

Predicción 26.89%3.72momio equitativo
EV +0.283%
Ventaja +0.076%
Kelly +0.103%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.37%26.84%26.99%29.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.343.303.7333.33%29.91%30.30%26.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.98%3.13momio equitativo
EV -4.05%
Ventaja -1.35%
Kelly -2.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.81%31.94%31.87%33.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.882.903.0040.00%34.71%34.48%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.30I 43.48%NM 41.87%EV -5.40%E -2.35%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.82%EV +0.283%E +0.076%K +0.103%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.31%EV -4.69%E -1.57%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-10 22:40
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -15.68%E -7.65%K -14.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -0.524%E -0.142%K -0.194%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.64%EV -8.85%E -3.11%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-10 22:39
BetOnline.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 41.33%EV -6.22%E -2.73%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.21%E -0.892%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.49%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-10 22:49
LowVig.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 41.33%EV -6.22%E -2.73%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.21%E -0.892%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.49%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-10 22:50
BetUS2.28I 43.86%NM 41.33%EV -6.22%E -2.73%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.21%E -0.892%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.49%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-10 22:50
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -3.21%E -0.892%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-10 22:49
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -3.21%E -0.892%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.54%EV -8.21%E -2.86%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-10 22:50
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -3.34%E -1.42%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-10 22:48
Marathon Bet2.26I 44.25%NM 41.01%EV -7.04%E -3.12%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.52%EV -8.85%E -3.11%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-10 22:39
Bovada2.22I 45.05%NM 41.58%EV -8.69%E -3.91%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -7.89%E -2.74%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-10 22:48
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -10.45%E -3.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-10 22:49
William Hill2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -10.45%E -3.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-10 22:50
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -10.45%E -3.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-10 22:49
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -10.45%E -3.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-10 22:50
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -5.90%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -10.45%E -3.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-10 22:49
NordicBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.28%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.25%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.81%EV -6.61%E -2.26%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-10 22:49
Betsson2.25I 44.44%NM 41.28%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.25%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.81%EV -6.61%E -2.26%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-10 22:50
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -5.40%E -2.35%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.59%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-10 22:40
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.59%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-10 22:49
Codere (IT)2.23I 44.84%NM 41.24%EV -8.28%E -3.71%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -8.59%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-10 22:49
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -8.59%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -8.85%E -3.11%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-10 22:40
theScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-10 22:50
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-10 22:49
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-10 22:49
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -11.57%E -5.38%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-10 22:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.45%E -3.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-10 22:40
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.45%E -3.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-10 22:40
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.45%E -3.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-10 22:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.45%E -3.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-10 22:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.22%EV -13.62%E -6.49%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.99%EV -12.62%E -3.88%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.79%EV -20.04%E -8.02%K -13.36%G +0.000%18.4%2026-06-10 22:49
Casumo2.33I 42.92%NM 39.92%EV -4.16%E -1.79%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -13.97%E -4.36%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.05%E -1.35%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-10 22:39
Unibet2.33I 42.92%NM 39.92%EV -4.16%E -1.79%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -13.97%E -4.36%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.05%E -1.35%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-10 22:40
Unibet (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.92%EV -4.16%E -1.79%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -13.97%E -4.36%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.05%E -1.35%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-10 22:40
Unibet (NL)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.92%EV -4.16%E -1.79%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -13.97%E -4.36%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.05%E -1.35%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-10 22:40
Svenska Spel2.33I 42.92%NM 39.92%EV -4.16%E -1.79%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -13.97%E -4.36%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.05%E -1.35%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-10 22:40
betPARX2.33I 42.92%NM 39.92%EV -4.16%E -1.79%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -13.97%E -4.36%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.05%E -1.35%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-10 22:40
ATG (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.92%EV -4.16%E -1.79%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -13.97%E -4.36%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.05%E -1.35%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-10 22:40
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -13.97%E -4.36%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.89%E -2.74%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-10 22:49
BetRivers2.28I 43.86%NM 39.87%EV -6.22%E -2.73%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -16.66%E -5.37%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -5.65%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-10 22:40
Grosvenor2.25I 44.44%NM 39.78%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.35%EV -18.00%E -5.90%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.87%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-10 22:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 39.91%EV -8.28%E -3.71%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.18%EV -18.00%E -5.90%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.90%EV -7.89%E -2.74%K -4.20%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-10 22:40
TABtouch2.23I 44.84%NM 39.78%EV -8.28%E -3.71%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.09%EV -18.00%E -5.90%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.13%EV -8.85%E -3.11%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.7%2026-06-10 22:40
LiveScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 39.92%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -19.34%E -6.45%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.81%EV -8.85%E -3.11%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.9%2026-06-10 22:39
LeoVegas2.20I 45.45%NM 39.92%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -19.34%E -6.45%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.81%EV -8.85%E -3.11%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.9%2026-06-10 22:40
Virgin Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 39.92%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -19.34%E -6.45%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.81%EV -8.85%E -3.11%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.9%2026-06-10 22:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.40I 41.67%NM 41.63%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.62%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.76%0.1%2026-06-10 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.83%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.64%0.4%2026-06-10 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.83%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.64%0.4%2026-06-10 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.83%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.64%0.4%2026-06-10 22:50
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 41.74%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.70%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.56%2.4%2026-06-10 22:50