Language:English
Fortaleza v Ceará
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fortaleza (Local)
Prediction 41.65%2.40fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.34%42.08%41.59%49.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.782.182.202.3256.18%45.89%45.45%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ceará (Visit)
Prediction 27.48%3.64fair odd
EV +12.65%
Edge +3.09%
Kelly +4.08%
Growth +0.516%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.62%27.09%27.60%28.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.413.354.1031.25%29.34%29.85%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.88%3.24fair odd
EV -4.28%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.59%30.82%30.81%31.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.882.992.953.1034.72%33.45%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortaleza (Local): 41.65%; Ceará (Visit): 27.48%; Draw: 30.88%. For Ceará (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.65%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.79%EV -25.87%E -14.53%K -33.17%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV +12.65%E +3.09%K +4.08%G +0.516% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-13 21:01 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.73%EV -19.21%E -9.90%K -20.43%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.55%EV +5.78%E +1.50%K +2.03%G +0.117% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.72%EV -5.83%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -1.08%E -0.301%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -1.08%E -0.301%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.16%EV -14.62%E -7.13%K -13.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -1.08%E -0.301%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.69%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.30%EV -7.96%E -3.60%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -2.46%E -0.693%K -0.964%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.37%EV -7.99%E -2.68%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-13 21:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.46%EV -3.38%E -1.46%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.41%EV -3.56%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.13%EV -4.59%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-13 21:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-13 21:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -12.54%E -5.97%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -11.08%E -3.85%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -12.54%E -5.97%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -11.08%E -3.85%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 41.94%EV -7.96%E -3.60%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.64%EV -4.38%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.42%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-13 21:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.83%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-13 21:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.58%E -1.94%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -4.21%E -1.83%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -4.21%E -1.83%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -4.21%E -1.83%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -7.13%E -3.20%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-13 21:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -10.46%E -4.86%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.23%EV -7.54%E -3.40%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-13 21:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.10%EV -7.54%E -3.40%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.25%EV -9.84%E -3.37%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.10%EV -7.54%E -3.40%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.25%EV -9.84%E -3.37%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -10.46%E -4.86%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-13 21:23 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -12.54%E -5.97%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -12.54%E -5.97%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -12.54%E -5.97%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -10.46%E -4.86%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-13 21:26 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.41%EV -12.54%E -5.97%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.19%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -10.46%E -4.86%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -11.08%E -3.85%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-13 21:16 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07% | 0.6% | 2026-09-13 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07% | 0.6% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07% | 0.6% | 2026-09-13 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07% | 0.6% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.18% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84% | 1.3% | 2026-09-13 21:25 |