Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Fortaleza v Ceará

Início: 2026-09-13 21:30 UTC

Final: Fortaleza 1–1 Ceará

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

43 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Fortaleza (Local)

Previsão 41.65%2.40odd justa
EV -3.38%
Vantagem -1.46%
Kelly -2.56%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.32

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
40.34%42.08%41.59%49.79%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.782.182.202.3256.18%45.89%45.45%43.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ceará (Visitante)

Previsão 27.48%3.64odd justa
EV +12.65%
Vantagem +3.09%
Kelly +4.08%
Crescimento +0.516%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
21.62%27.09%27.60%28.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.413.354.1031.25%29.34%29.85%24.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 30.88%3.24odd justa
EV -4.28%
Vantagem -1.38%
Kelly -2.04%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.59%30.82%30.81%31.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.882.992.953.1034.72%33.45%33.90%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Fortaleza (Local): 41.65%; Ceará (Visitante): 27.48%; Empate: 30.88%. Para Ceará (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.64. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.10, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +12.65%.

Odds das casas de apostas (43 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.79%EV -25.87%E -14.53%K -33.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV +12.65%E +3.09%K +4.08%G +0.516%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-13 21:01
BetRivers🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.73%EV -19.21%E -9.90%K -20.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.55%EV +5.78%E +1.50%K +2.03%G +0.117%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.72%EV -5.83%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 21:15
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -1.08%E -0.301%K -0.417%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 21:15
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -1.08%E -0.301%K -0.417%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 21:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.16%EV -14.62%E -7.13%K -13.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -1.08%E -0.301%K -0.417%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.69%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 21:20
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.30%EV -7.96%E -3.60%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -2.46%E -0.693%K -0.964%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.37%EV -7.99%E -2.68%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 21:25
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.46%EV -3.38%E -1.46%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.41%EV -3.56%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.13%EV -4.59%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-13 21:25
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 21:25
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -12.54%E -5.97%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -11.08%E -3.85%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-13 21:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -12.54%E -5.97%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -11.08%E -3.85%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-13 21:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 41.94%EV -7.96%E -3.60%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.64%EV -4.38%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.42%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 21:25
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.83%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 21:15
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 21:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 21:20
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 21:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 21:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 21:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 21:20
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -9.21%E -4.22%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 21:20
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.58%E -1.94%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 21:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -4.21%E -1.83%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 21:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -4.21%E -1.83%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 21:20
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -4.21%E -1.83%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 21:20
Bovada🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -7.13%E -3.20%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 21:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 21:20
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -10.46%E -4.86%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 21:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 21:20
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 21:20
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 21:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 21:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 21:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.23%EV -7.54%E -3.40%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 21:25
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.10%EV -7.54%E -3.40%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.25%EV -9.84%E -3.37%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 21:20
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.10%EV -7.54%E -3.40%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.25%EV -9.84%E -3.37%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 21:20
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -10.46%E -4.86%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-13 21:23
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -12.54%E -5.97%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 21:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -12.54%E -5.97%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 21:20
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -12.54%E -5.97%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 21:20
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -10.46%E -4.86%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 21:20
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 21:26
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.41%EV -12.54%E -5.97%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.19%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 21:20
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -6.29%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 21:20
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -10.46%E -4.86%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -12.08%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -11.08%E -3.85%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 21:16
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%0.6%2026-09-13 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%0.6%2026-09-13 21:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%0.6%2026-09-13 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%0.6%2026-09-13 21:20
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.18%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%1.3%2026-09-13 21:25