L’École des cotes

Cuiabá v Criciuma

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-02 21:30 UTC

Score final : Cuiabá 1–1 Criciuma

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

47 opérateurs (17 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Cuiabá (Local)

Prévision 42.12%2.37cote équitable
EV -3.13%
Avantage -1.36%
Kelly -2.40%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
40.48%42.00%42.05%43.44%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.082.172.182.3048.08%46.05%45.87%43.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Criciuma (Visiteur)

Prévision 25.29%3.95cote équitable
EV +0.148%
Avantage +0.037%
Kelly +0.050%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.96

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.29%25.44%25.35%27.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.253.653.603.9630.77%27.42%27.78%25.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 32.59%3.07cote équitable
EV -3.86%
Avantage -1.31%
Kelly -1.98%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.53%32.56%32.60%33.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.632.822.802.9538.02%35.40%35.71%33.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (47 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.25I 44.44%NM 42.76%EV -5.23%E -2.32%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.29%EV +0.148%E +0.037%K +0.050%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.95%EV -4.84%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-02 21:05
Unibet (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.24%EV -8.18%E -3.75%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -3.90%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.95%EV -3.86%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 21:25
Unibet (NL)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.24%EV -8.18%E -3.75%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -3.90%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.95%EV -3.86%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 21:25
Unibet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.24%EV -8.18%E -3.75%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -3.90%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.95%EV -3.86%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 21:25
Casumo2.18I 45.87%NM 43.24%EV -8.18%E -3.75%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -3.90%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.95%EV -3.86%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 21:25
betPARX2.18I 45.87%NM 43.24%EV -8.18%E -3.75%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -3.90%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.95%EV -3.86%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 21:25
ATG (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.24%EV -8.18%E -3.75%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -3.90%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.95%EV -3.86%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 21:25
Svenska Spel2.18I 45.87%NM 43.24%EV -8.18%E -3.75%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -3.90%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.95%EV -3.86%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 21:25
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -3.90%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -8.75%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 21:15
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -3.90%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -8.75%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 21:14
Marathon Bet2.19I 45.66%NM 42.29%EV -7.76%E -3.54%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.63%EV -4.91%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.75%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 21:10
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -5.16%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.49%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:10
BetRivers2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -5.16%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.66%EV -3.86%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 20:50
Bovada2.17I 46.08%NM 42.49%EV -8.60%E -3.96%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -5.16%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -8.75%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 21:02
BetUS2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -9.02%E -4.18%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -5.16%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -8.75%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 21:25
1xBet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -6.07%E -2.72%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.22%EV -6.17%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -7.12%E -2.50%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 21:25
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -5.23%E -2.32%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -6.43%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -5.49%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 21:00
Grosvenor2.14I 46.73%NM 43.08%EV -9.86%E -4.61%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -6.43%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -6.14%E -2.13%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 21:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.16%EV -10.71%E -5.05%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -6.43%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -7.12%E -2.50%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 21:25
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -6.43%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -12.01%E -4.45%K -7.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-02 21:10
NordicBet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.97%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -7.69%E -2.11%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.74%EV -8.09%E -2.87%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 21:10
Betsson2.20I 45.45%NM 41.97%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -7.69%E -2.11%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.74%EV -8.09%E -2.87%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 21:10
TABtouch2.12I 47.17%NM 43.02%EV -10.71%E -5.05%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -7.69%E -2.11%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.00%EV -7.12%E -2.50%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 21:25
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -7.12%E -2.50%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 21:10
Codere (IT)2.19I 45.66%NM 41.83%EV -7.76%E -3.54%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -8.75%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 21:15
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -10.38%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 21:10
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -10.38%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 21:10
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -10.38%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 21:10
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -10.38%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 21:10
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -8.75%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 21:23
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -10.38%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 21:25
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -8.75%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 21:20
LeoVegas2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -12.39%E -5.96%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.01%EV -8.75%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 21:25
LiveScore Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -12.39%E -5.96%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.01%EV -8.75%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 21:24
Virgin Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -12.39%E -5.96%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.01%EV -8.75%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 21:25
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -10.38%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 21:04
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -10.38%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 21:25
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -10.38%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 21:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -10.38%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 21:25
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -10.38%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 21:25
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -3.13%E -1.36%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -5.49%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 20:50
BetOnline.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -5.23%E -2.32%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.49%EV -11.35%E -4.17%K -6.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 14:50
LowVig.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -5.23%E -2.32%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -11.49%E -3.28%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.49%EV -11.35%E -4.17%K -6.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 14:50
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -5.23%E -2.32%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -14.01%E -4.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -7.12%E -2.50%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 20:50
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -14.01%E -4.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -5.49%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 20:50
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -16.54%E -5.01%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -8.75%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-02 20:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.91%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.43%EV -17.81%E -5.48%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.66%EV -14.29%E -5.43%K -8.76%G +0.000%16.4%2026-05-02 21:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-05-02 21:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-05-02 21:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-05-02 21:20
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 42.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-05-02 21:20
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.62%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.89%4.1%2026-05-02 21:25