Language:English
Cuiabá v Ceará
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cuiabá (Local)
Prediction 40.08%2.49fair odd
EV +0.210%
Edge +0.084%
Kelly +0.140%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.30%39.74%40.23%41.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.312.302.5045.45%43.31%43.48%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ceará (Visit)
Prediction 28.06%3.56fair odd
EV -0.387%
Edge -0.109%
Kelly -0.152%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.79%28.34%28.00%31.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.253.253.5534.72%30.74%30.77%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.86%3.14fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.402%
Kelly -0.593%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.15%31.92%31.77%33.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.922.923.1038.02%34.29%34.25%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cuiabá (Local): 40.08%; Ceará (Visit): 28.06%; Draw: 31.86%. For Cuiabá (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.210%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV +0.210%E +0.084%K +0.140%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -17.22%E -5.84%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.43%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-04 20:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.64%EV -2.20%E -0.900%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -0.387%E -0.109%K -0.152%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.12%EV -6.98%E -2.39%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.64%EV -2.20%E -0.900%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -0.387%E -0.109%K -0.152%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.12%EV -6.98%E -2.39%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.46%EV -2.20%E -0.900%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.67%EV -2.35%E -0.676%K -0.948%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.86%EV -6.66%E -2.27%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-04 20:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -3.80%E -1.58%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -11.61%E -3.69%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.43%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 20:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -3.80%E -1.58%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -13.01%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -13.99%E -5.18%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-04 20:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.32%EV -5.00%E -2.11%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -10.80%E -3.86%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-04 20:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.80%E -2.47%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%EV -3.19%E -0.925%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.15%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -5.80%E -2.47%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -10.80%E -3.86%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-04 20:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -5.80%E -2.47%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -13.01%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-04 20:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -5.80%E -2.47%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -11.61%E -3.69%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -12.40%E -4.51%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-04 20:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -7.01%E -3.02%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -2.84%E -0.931%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -7.01%E -3.02%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -2.84%E -0.931%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -7.01%E -3.02%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -2.84%E -0.931%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -7.01%E -3.02%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -2.84%E -0.931%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -7.01%E -3.02%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -2.84%E -0.931%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -7.01%E -3.02%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -2.84%E -0.931%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.41%EV -7.01%E -3.02%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -2.84%E -0.931%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 20:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -7.81%E -3.39%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-04 20:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.31%EV -7.81%E -3.39%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.42%EV -8.89%E -3.11%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -7.81%E -3.39%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -7.62%E -2.63%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.81%E -3.39%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -13.01%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -4.43%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-04 20:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -7.81%E -3.39%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -13.99%E -5.18%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-04 20:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -7.81%E -3.39%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -19.19%E -6.66%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.72%EV -16.22%E -6.17%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-04-04 20:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.54%EV -8.61%E -3.78%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.19%E -0.925%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.66%EV -9.85%E -3.48%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-04 20:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -8.61%E -3.78%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.59%EV -6.98%E -2.39%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-04 20:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -8.61%E -3.78%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.59%EV -6.98%E -2.39%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-04 20:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.26%EV -8.61%E -3.78%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -11.61%E -3.69%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.60%EV -4.43%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-04 20:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.20%EV -8.61%E -3.78%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -7.62%E -2.63%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.81%E -4.36%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -1.25%E -0.402%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -9.81%E -4.36%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -8.25%E -2.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -9.81%E -4.36%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -8.25%E -2.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -9.81%E -4.36%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -8.25%E -2.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -9.81%E -4.36%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -8.25%E -2.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-04 20:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -9.81%E -4.36%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -11.61%E -3.69%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -9.81%E -4.36%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -11.61%E -3.69%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -6.02%E -2.04%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.19%EV -10.61%E -4.76%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -13.01%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -7.62%E -2.63%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.19%EV -10.61%E -4.76%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -13.01%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -7.62%E -2.63%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.19%EV -10.61%E -4.76%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -13.01%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -7.62%E -2.63%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -11.82%E -5.37%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -8.25%E -2.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-04 20:53 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -11.82%E -5.37%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.80%E -3.86%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09% | 0.7% | 2026-04-04 20:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09% | 0.7% | 2026-04-04 20:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09% | 0.7% | 2026-04-04 20:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09% | 0.7% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.67% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.32% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.01% | 1.7% | 2026-04-04 20:50 |