The School of OddsCeará v Athletic Club (MG)
Head to Head
Option 1: Ceará (Local)
Odds
1.7557.14%Min
1.8454.21%Mean
1.8554.05%Median
1.9152.36%Max
Consensus probabilities
48.28%2.071Min
52.72%1.897Max
50.33%1.987Mean
50.13%1.995Median
50.21%1.992IQM
50.49%1.981Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.91 under the IQM model: 50.21%
EV -4.10%Edge -2.15%Kelly -4.51%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)
Odds
3.8026.32%Min
4.2423.60%Mean
4.2023.81%Median
4.9420.24%Max
Consensus probabilities
19.10%5.234Min
23.07%4.335Max
21.04%4.753Mean
21.30%4.694Median
21.26%4.704IQM
20.91%4.783Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 4.94 under the IQM model: 21.26%
EV +5.03%Edge +1.02%Kelly +1.28%Growth +0.064%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.0033.33%Min
3.1831.45%Mean
3.2031.25%Median
3.3529.85%Max
Consensus probabilities
27.77%3.601Min
30.27%3.303Max
28.63%3.492Mean
28.57%3.501Median
28.53%3.505IQM
28.61%3.496Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.35 under the IQM model: 28.53%
EV -4.42%Edge -1.32%Kelly -1.88%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Ceará (Local) | Athletic Club (MG) (Visit) ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.79I 55.87% NM 52.72%EV -10.13% E -5.66% K -12.82% G +0.000% | 4.94I 20.24% NM 19.10%EV +5.03% E +1.02% K +1.28% G +0.064% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 28.17%EV -4.42% E -1.32% K -1.88% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-08 00:20 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.77I 56.50% NM 52.26%EV -11.13% E -6.29% K -14.45% G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.27%EV +2.05% E +0.427% K +0.539% G +0.011% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.46%EV -7.28% E -2.24% K -3.23% G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-07 23:25 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.77I 56.50% NM 52.26%EV -11.13% E -6.29% K -14.45% G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.27%EV +2.05% E +0.427% K +0.539% G +0.011% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.46%EV -7.28% E -2.24% K -3.23% G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-07 23:25 |
| 1xBet | 1.80I 55.56% NM 51.74%EV -9.62% E -5.35% K -12.03% G +0.000% | 4.69I 21.32% NM 19.86%EV -0.289% E -0.062% K -0.078% G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49% NM 28.40%EV -6.42% E -1.96% K -2.82% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-08 01:10 |
| SportsBet | 1.85I 54.05% NM 50.69%EV -7.11% E -3.84% K -8.37% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 21.31%EV -6.45% E -1.47% K -1.90% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 27.99%EV -4.42% E -1.32% K -1.88% G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-07 23:30 |
| 888sport | 1.85I 54.05% NM 49.09%EV -7.11% E -3.84% K -8.37% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.64%EV -6.45% E -1.47% K -1.90% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 30.27%EV -14.41% E -4.80% K -7.20% G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-08 01:05 |
| William Hill | 1.85I 54.05% NM 49.09%EV -7.11% E -3.84% K -8.37% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.64%EV -6.45% E -1.47% K -1.90% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 30.27%EV -14.41% E -4.80% K -7.20% G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-08 01:04 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.85I 54.05% NM 49.09%EV -7.11% E -3.84% K -8.37% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.64%EV -6.45% E -1.47% K -1.90% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 30.27%EV -14.41% E -4.80% K -7.20% G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-08 01:05 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.85I 54.05% NM 49.09%EV -7.11% E -3.84% K -8.37% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.64%EV -6.45% E -1.47% K -1.90% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 30.27%EV -14.41% E -4.80% K -7.20% G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-08 01:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.85I 54.05% NM 49.91%EV -7.11% E -3.84% K -8.37% G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99% NM 21.23%EV -7.52% E -1.73% K -2.24% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.86%EV -8.70% E -2.72% K -3.96% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-07 23:20 |
| NordicBet | 1.85I 54.05% NM 49.69%EV -7.11% E -3.84% K -8.37% G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99% NM 21.13%EV -7.52% E -1.73% K -2.24% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 29.18%EV -10.13% E -3.22% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-07 23:20 |
| Betsson | 1.85I 54.05% NM 49.69%EV -7.11% E -3.84% K -8.37% G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99% NM 21.13%EV -7.52% E -1.73% K -2.24% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 29.18%EV -10.13% E -3.22% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-07 23:20 |
| Coolbet | 1.87I 53.48% NM 49.96%EV -6.11% E -3.27% K -7.02% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 21.73%EV -8.58% E -2.00% K -2.60% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.31%EV -5.85% E -1.77% K -2.54% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-07 23:30 |
| FanDuel | 1.80I 55.56% NM 50.91%EV -9.62% E -5.35% K -12.03% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 21.31%EV -8.58% E -2.00% K -2.60% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.77%EV -5.85% E -1.77% K -2.54% G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-07 23:30 |
| LeoVegas | 1.83I 54.64% NM 49.94%EV -8.12% E -4.44% K -9.78% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 21.50%EV -9.64% E -2.27% K -2.97% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.56%EV -8.70% E -2.72% K -3.96% G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-08 00:30 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80I 55.56% NM 50.44%EV -9.62% E -5.35% K -12.03% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 21.62%EV -10.71% E -2.55% K -3.35% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 27.94%EV -7.28% E -2.24% K -3.23% G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-07 23:30 |
| betfred_uk | 1.83I 54.64% NM 49.36%EV -8.12% E -4.44% K -9.78% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 21.51%EV -10.71% E -2.55% K -3.35% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 29.14%EV -11.56% E -3.73% K -5.50% G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-07 23:30 |
| Unibet | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.70%EV -4.10% E -2.15% K -4.51% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.69%EV -12.83% E -3.13% K -4.14% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.62%EV -7.28% E -2.24% K -3.23% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 00:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.70%EV -4.10% E -2.15% K -4.51% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.69%EV -12.83% E -3.13% K -4.14% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.62%EV -7.28% E -2.24% K -3.23% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 00:20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.70%EV -4.10% E -2.15% K -4.51% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.69%EV -12.83% E -3.13% K -4.14% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.62%EV -7.28% E -2.24% K -3.23% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 00:20 |
| Casumo | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.70%EV -4.10% E -2.15% K -4.51% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.69%EV -12.83% E -3.13% K -4.14% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.62%EV -7.28% E -2.24% K -3.23% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 00:20 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.70%EV -4.10% E -2.15% K -4.51% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.69%EV -12.83% E -3.13% K -4.14% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.62%EV -7.28% E -2.24% K -3.23% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 00:20 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.70%EV -4.10% E -2.15% K -4.51% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.69%EV -12.83% E -3.13% K -4.14% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.62%EV -7.28% E -2.24% K -3.23% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 00:19 |
| betPARX | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.70%EV -4.10% E -2.15% K -4.51% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.69%EV -12.83% E -3.13% K -4.14% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.62%EV -7.28% E -2.24% K -3.23% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-07 00:20 |
| BoyleSports | 1.75I 57.14% NM 49.95%EV -12.13% E -6.93% K -16.18% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 21.85%EV -14.96% E -3.74% K -4.99% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 28.20%EV -11.56% E -3.73% K -5.50% G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-07-07 23:45 |
| BetRivers | 1.88I 53.19% NM 48.46%EV -5.61% E -2.98% K -6.37% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 23.07%EV -16.02% E -4.06% K -5.43% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.47%EV -8.70% E -2.72% K -3.96% G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-07 00:20 |
| Grosvenor | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.28%EV -7.11% E -3.84% K -8.37% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 22.90%EV -17.08% E -4.38% K -5.89% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 28.81%EV -11.56% E -3.73% K -5.50% G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-06 23:55 |
| TABtouch | 1.83I 54.64% NM 48.41%EV -8.12% E -4.44% K -9.78% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.01%EV -18.15% E -4.71% K -6.37% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 28.58%EV -11.56% E -3.73% K -5.50% G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-07 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.83I 54.64% NM 48.41%EV -8.12% E -4.44% K -9.78% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.01%EV -18.15% E -4.71% K -6.37% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 28.58%EV -11.56% E -3.73% K -5.50% G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-07 00:20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.81I 55.25% NM 48.31%EV -9.12% E -5.04% K -11.26% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 23.01%EV -19.21% E -5.06% K -6.86% G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79% NM 28.67%EV -12.98% E -4.26% K -6.33% G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-07-07 00:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.81I 55.25% NM 48.31%EV -9.12% E -5.04% K -11.26% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 23.01%EV -19.21% E -5.06% K -6.86% G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79% NM 28.67%EV -12.98% E -4.26% K -6.33% G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-07-07 00:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Ceará (Local) | Athletic Club (MG) (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.73I 57.80% NM 54.92% | 5.30I 18.87% NM 17.93% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.15% | 5.2% | 2026-07-08 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.73I 57.80% NM 54.92% | 5.30I 18.87% NM 17.93% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.15% | 5.2% | 2026-07-08 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.73I 57.80% NM 54.92% | 5.30I 18.87% NM 17.93% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.15% | 5.2% | 2026-07-08 00:35 |
| Smarkets | 1.67I 59.88% NM 54.54% | 5.10I 19.61% NM 17.86% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.60% | 9.8% | 2026-07-08 00:40 |