The School of Odds

Ceará v Athletic Club (MG)

Kickoff: 2026-07-13 23:32 UTC

Final: Ceará 0–0 Athletic Club (MG)

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Ceará (Local)

Prediction 49.24%2.03fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -4.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.43%49.34%49.42%52.47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.721.861.871.9458.14%53.64%53.48%51.55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)

Prediction 20.97%4.77fair odd
EV +2.76%
Edge +0.564%
Kelly +0.708%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.42%20.89%20.76%22.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.394.404.9025.00%22.80%22.73%20.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.79%3.36fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.515%
Kelly -0.739%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.46%29.77%29.81%31.13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.103.103.3033.33%32.25%32.26%30.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.47%EV -15.31%E -8.90%K -21.26%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.42%EV +2.76%E +0.564%K +0.708%G +0.020%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.66%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-13 23:30
Pinnacle1.93I 51.81%NM 49.82%EV -4.97%E -2.57%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.75%EV +2.13%E +0.438%K +0.551%G +0.012%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.43%EV -5.87%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-13 23:29
BetUS1.89I 52.91%NM 49.67%EV -6.94%E -3.67%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.56%EV +0.666%E +0.139%K +0.175%G +0.001%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.78%EV -9.15%E -3.00%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-13 23:29
LowVig.ag1.89I 52.91%NM 49.41%EV -6.94%E -3.67%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV +0.666%E +0.139%K +0.175%G +0.001%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.13%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-13 23:29
BetOnline.ag1.89I 52.91%NM 49.41%EV -6.94%E -3.67%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV +0.666%E +0.139%K +0.175%G +0.001%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.13%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-13 23:30
1xBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.58%EV -8.91%E -4.81%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.91%EV -1.43%E -0.305%K -0.387%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.52%EV -5.57%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-13 23:29
LeoVegas1.90I 52.63%NM 49.14%EV -6.44%E -3.39%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -5.63%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -7.66%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-13 23:30
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 48.76%EV -5.95%E -3.12%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.63%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.54%EV -9.15%E -3.00%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-13 23:30
Unibet (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.40%EV -7.43%E -3.95%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -5.63%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.66%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-13 23:28
Bovada1.89I 52.91%NM 48.78%EV -6.94%E -3.67%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -5.63%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-13 23:29
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 49.69%EV -8.91%E -4.81%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.66%EV -6.67%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -7.66%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-13 23:29
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 49.69%EV -8.91%E -4.81%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.66%EV -6.67%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -7.66%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-13 23:29
Unibet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.99%EV -7.92%E -4.24%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.72%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -3.19%E -0.981%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-13 23:29
Unibet (NL)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.99%EV -7.92%E -4.24%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.72%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -3.19%E -0.981%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-13 23:30
Unibet (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.99%EV -7.92%E -4.24%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.72%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -3.19%E -0.981%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-13 23:30
Casumo1.87I 53.48%NM 49.99%EV -7.92%E -4.24%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.72%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -3.19%E -0.981%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-13 23:29
Svenska Spel1.87I 53.48%NM 49.99%EV -7.92%E -4.24%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.72%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -3.19%E -0.981%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-13 23:30
ATG (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.99%EV -7.92%E -4.24%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.72%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -3.19%E -0.981%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-13 23:29
betPARX1.87I 53.48%NM 49.99%EV -7.92%E -4.24%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.72%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -3.19%E -0.981%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-13 23:30
Codere (IT)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.57%EV -8.91%E -4.81%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -7.72%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.66%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-13 23:30
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.91%E -4.81%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -7.72%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-13 23:29
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.91%E -4.81%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -7.72%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-13 23:30
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.91%E -4.81%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -7.72%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-13 23:29
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.91%E -4.81%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -7.72%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-13 23:29
Coolbet1.93I 51.81%NM 48.51%EV -4.97%E -2.57%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -9.82%E -2.28%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -6.17%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-13 23:29
SportsBet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.15%EV -4.47%E -2.31%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -9.82%E -2.28%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.66%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-13 23:30
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 48.54%EV -5.95%E -3.12%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -9.82%E -2.28%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -7.66%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 23:29
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.95%E -3.12%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -11.92%E -2.84%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -1.70%E -0.515%K -0.739%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-13 23:30
theScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -7.92%E -4.24%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -11.92%E -2.84%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.68%E -1.46%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-13 23:30
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -7.92%E -4.24%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -11.92%E -2.84%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-13 23:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -7.92%E -4.24%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -11.92%E -2.84%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-13 23:30
PlayUp1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -7.92%E -4.24%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -11.92%E -2.84%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-13 23:29
Grosvenor1.81I 55.25%NM 49.63%EV -10.88%E -6.01%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -11.92%E -2.84%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -7.66%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-13 23:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -11.37%E -6.32%K -14.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.64%EV -14.01%E -3.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.08%EV -9.15%E -3.00%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-13 23:30
TABtouch1.79I 55.87%NM 49.42%EV -11.86%E -6.63%K -15.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.58%EV -14.01%E -3.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -9.15%E -3.00%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-13 23:29
Virgin Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 49.46%EV -12.85%E -7.26%K -16.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.35%EV -14.01%E -3.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.18%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-13 23:29
LiveScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 49.46%EV -12.85%E -7.26%K -16.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.35%EV -14.01%E -3.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.18%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-13 23:30
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -5.95%E -3.12%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -16.11%E -4.03%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.66%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-13 23:29
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 47.43%EV -6.44%E -3.39%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -16.11%E -4.03%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -10.64%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-13 23:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.09%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%0.8%2026-07-13 23:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.09%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%0.8%2026-07-13 23:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.04%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.46%1.0%2026-07-13 23:30
Matchbook1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.04%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.46%1.0%2026-07-13 23:30
Smarkets1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.99%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%1.3%2026-07-13 23:30